Are Miami Dolphins in the playoffs? Exploring playoff chances and scenarios after 32-26 win vs. Jets

The Miami Dolphins won 32-26 against the New York Jets in overtime in Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season. It was an important victory and had a significant effect on the AFC playoff bracket.

The Jets are now officially out of postseason contention with a 3-10 record. There was not much chance that they were going to make it but now it is official. This will be the 14th straight season they won't feature beyond the regular season, which makes it the longest active drought in the NFL.

Aaron Rodgers' wayward performances have been responsible for New York's woes but today he threw for more than 300 yards for the first time in his Jets career but still ended up on the losing side. For Miami, it meant they avoided a banana skin and pulled off a victory in a game that they could not lose.

They are fighting for a Wild Card spot (the Bills have already won the AFC East) with the Colts and the Broncos, with Sean Payton's team currently in the final postseason spot. Both Indianapolis and Denver were on a bye and the Dolphins could ill afford the opportunity to slip up today. We explore how it affected their playoff chances.

Dolphins' playoff chances after defeating Jets 32-26

The Dolphins are still facing an uphill battle to play beyond the regular season. Their 6-7 record leaves them two behind the Broncos, who have an 8-5 record. There are only four more games to play. Therefore, Denver must lose more than half of their matches for Miami to have a chance to overall them. Put simply, Mike McDaniel's team's best record can be 10-7 and they would need Bo Nix and company to win only one more game until the end of the season to finish 9-8.

The Chargers could also lose today against the Chiefs and then their equation relative to the Dolphins becomes the same as the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Colts have the same 6-7 record as Miami and will be looking to play better whatever their AFC East counterpart does for the rest of the season. There is a chance all the teams could finish with a 10-7 record and then tiebreakers would come into play. An added twist is that Indianapolis and Denver go head-to-head next week.

To get to 10-7, though, the Dolphins will have to win every single game until the end of the season, which is easier said than done. As Sportskeeda's Playoff Predictor shows us, the teams currently ahead have a better chance of making it through to the postseason. That means the Chargers and the Broncos. In fact, of the five simulations we ran, the below was the best scenario for Miami and they still missed out on the playoffs with a 9-8 record.

Sportskeeda NFL Playoff Predictor Simulation

Miami Dolphins' playoff scenario amid 6-7 record

In the above simulation, the Dolphins lost against the Jets in the final week to finish with a 9-8 record and miss out on the postseason. However, we can assume that Miami can win that game and finish 10-7. Then, they would be in a tiebreaker with the Broncos in the above scenario as they would both have the same record.

However, if we look at the smoothest way for Mike McDaniel to make it to the playoffs, he first has to win the remaining games and finish 10-7 before looking for favors from other teams. For example, if the Bengals, Chiefs, and Chargers all defeat the Broncos, Denver will finish with a 9-8 record. That is not outside the realm of possibility.

Meanwhile, that would mean that the Colts would lose next week against Sean Payton's team. Even if they win their remaining games, Indianapolis would then finish with a 9-8 record. That would see Tua Tagovailoa and company sneak in through the final Wild Card spot.