Are San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs? Exploring playoff chances and scenarios after 38-13 demolition of Bears

The 49ers and the Bears both entered this season with optimism hoping to make the playoffs this year. For San Francisco, the aim was to win the Super Bowl after they fell at the last hurdle against the Chiefs in 2023. For Chicago, a return to the postseason would show progress under rookie first-overall pick Caleb Williams, and he was given the weapons to accomplish that.

However, 2024 has not turned out kindly for either team. The Bears are not officially out of the playoff race yet but they are unlikely to recover from a 4-9 record and make it past the regular season. Matt Eberflus and Shane Waldron have already lost their jobs and if the 38-13 defeat today is any indication, interim head coach Thomas Brown will not be promoted permanently either.

49ers' playoff chances after defeating Bears 38-13

For the 49ers, the situation is a bit more complex. They are now 6-7 and still bottom of the NFC West. However, they know a win against the Rams next win will bring both the divisional rivals' records to an even 7-7. The Commanders, who hold the last NFC Wild Card spot at the moment, are 8-5 and have four games remaining, two of which are against the Eagles and the Cowboys, both of whom have defeated Washington this season.

Therefore, if San Francisco wins its remaining games and the Rams do too, except next week, there is a possibility that all three teams could end up with a 10-7 record. Then it would come down to a tiebreaker as to who gets into the playoffs.

The NFC West divisional winner spot is also not closed for the 49ers. The Seahawks lead it with an 8-5 record after defeating the Cardinals today. They face the Packers and the Vikings in the next two weeks and could conceivably lose both. If Kyle Shanahan can lead his team to victories in the next two matches, they could be looking at a lead in their division entering the final two weeks of 2024.

However, despite these multiple pathways, we must note that San Francisco has a losing record. This makes their chances of making the postseason slim. We used Sportskeeda's Playoff Predictor tool and came up with five simulations, all of which showed that the 49ers will miss out on the playoffs. One of those scenarios is shown below.

Sportskeeda's NFL Playoff Predictor Simulation

San Francisco 49ers' playoff scenario amid 6-7 record

Even when we look at the scenario given above, where two teams from the NFC make it to the playoffs, the 49ers still miss out. They finish with an 8-9 record in this simulation after losing to the Rams and Cardinals in their last four games. Even their other games against the Dolphins and the Lions are not gimmes either. So, San Francisco could end up with a 6-11 record if the worst comes to pass.

However, if they want to make the playoffs, the 49ers would need to win their remaining four games and finish with a 10-7 record. In that situation, San Francisco would make it to the postseason in the above scenario. That would need the Commanders to lose three of their last four games in addition to the Seahawks falling to defeats in half of their matches.

In short, Kyle Shanahan can still lead his team to the playoffs and there is all to play for. However, they have some tough matchups that they will need to dig deep to win. Even if they do, they will need other teams to help them defeat the Commanders, Rams, and Seahawks to have a chance to play beyond the regular season.