Biggest reaches from the 2024 NFL Draft ft. J.J. McCarthy

The 2024 NFL draft is in the books and it’s time to recap all the action. Thursday started pretty chalky until the Atlanta Falcons sent shockwaves across the internet when they selected Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall.

We didn’t see a defensive player selected until pick number 15. Late in the first round leading into day two, we saw a big run on wide receivers, which the depth of the class was illustrated by 35 total names coming off the board. Offensive tackle came in close behind that with 27 selected and cornerback edged out the WRs by one more taken (36), as the two other quality position groups.

The big surprise was that we didn’t just get six quarterbacks inside the top 12 to set a new record, but it took 138 additional spots before we got to QB7.

Let’s look at the biggest reaches from the 2024 NFL draft:

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2024 NFL Draft Reaches

All first-round quarterbacks not named Caleb Williams or Drake Maye

2024 CFP National Championship - Michigan v Washington

This was a pretty unique year. We had three juniors in Caleb Williams (won a Heisman at USC in 2022), Drake Maye (who was a quality starter for three years at North Carolina) and J.J. McCarthy (just helped Michigan win a national championship), with all three being top-six QBs in that recruiting class.

That was paired with three of these super seniors, who have changed schools across their six years in college and left their respective schools at the top of their games, as the top three in this past Heisman voting.

Jayden Daniels (LSU) went second overall to the Commanders – over Drake Maye – when I thought he was a late first-round prospect. Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) was the big shocker at eighth overall, when most him just inside my top 50 overall prospects. Even though the Vikings ultimately only moved up one spot for McCarthy, they gave up a fourth- and fifth-rounder for a six to secure my QB6 and 64th player on the big board.

They all have their warts, but what’s important here is that they got pushed up due to the number of desperate teams inside the top 12, as they set a new NFL record for how early those guys came off the board. To some degree that also includes Oregon’s Bo Nix, who I’d typically be very critical of taking QB6 at 12th overall as the Broncos, but I did have him in a tier with Jayden Daniels as number 28 on my board, and they didn’t have to move up.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas – 28th overall to the Chiefs

One of the funniest things coming out of this past Thursday night was all of these people making fun of the Bills for making deals with the devil in the Chiefs. They allowed the Chiefs to trade up for the fastest receiver to ever run a 40-yard dash at the combine, considering how they’ve been the obstacle in Buffalo’s path to a Super Bowl appearance.

Well, what if they didn’t think there was a player worthy (no pun intended) or moving up for and would gladly drop down four spots in exchange for improving to picks 95 and 221 up by nearly a full round on both? Xavier Worthy was my number 10 wide receiver and player 55 on the big board.

He does have that top gear very few can actually match and has improved his ball-tracking skills, but he wasn’t a highly productive vertical target. While he had plenty of production catching the ball underneath and burning angles, it’s not like you saw him just making people miss in the open field routinely.

Combining that with being 165 pounds and basically giving you nothing as a blocker or on contested catches, this is a fairly defined piece of a receiving corp rather than someone you trade up for in the first round in my opinion.

Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina – 32nd overall to the Panthers

Continuing with the wide receiver position, I had Xavier Legette five spots lower than the other Xavier on the big board, as my 12th-ranked player at that spot. Visibly these are very different physical profiles.

I already discussed the strengths of Legette’s game when I outlined Panthers quarterback Bryce Young as a “winner”, as someone with 4.39 speed at a 6’1”, 220 pounds, who can win with physicality at the catch-point as well as once the ball is in his hands, as he clearing arm-tackles and pulling away from guys.

With that being said, I never looked at him as a potential number-one target in the pros. For me this is less about the worrisome statistical output, where about 75% of his production came in the final of his five seasons at South Carolina, being aware of his background and why it took him longer to really get his opportunity.

My issue with him going as high as he did is more about as a 23-year-old, he still lacks refinement or diversity in his release package if you wanted to put him at X. The fact that his breaks aren’t as sharp as you’d like them to be and while he’s certainly a notch above their early second-rounder from a year ago in Jonathan Mingo, at least in terms of usage in college, it was also primarily going vertical or horizontal rather than “winning” his matchups.

Maason Smith, IDL, LSU – 48th overall to the Jaguars

If there was one player that I would’ve predicted to land on this list prior to the draft actually taking place, Maason Smith would’ve been my top call. With him continuing to rise up boards and his name entering conversations more regularly, I knew that he was basically a lock for day two. But top 50?! – That is still wild.

Personally, I didn’t even have him inside my top-130 overall or the top-ten interior D-linemen, largely because I wasn’t sure how to value this kind of player. We all knew he was big, long and naturally strong, with a five-star pedigree coming out of high school. Watching his flashes as a true freshman in 2021, it looked like he might go even higher ultimately.

However, then he tore his ACL celebrating after making a play in his second season and despite having a full year to recover, he showed no improvement whatsoever as a junior. So this is a bet purely on physical upside, which I’d understand for a team like the Chiefs a round later, but not for a group like Jacksonville.

Especially as the Jags just hit a wall in the middle of last season, haven’t reaped the rewards of taking a gamble of another freaky D-lineman in Travon Walker as the first overall pick from a couple of years ago and just handed Arik Armstead a three-year, 43.5-million-dollar contract.

Patrick Paul, OT, Houston – 55th overall to the Dolphins

Let’s talk about a couple of offensive tackles, who are on close to opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of player profiles and why I think they were both selected too early. For the first one here, I realize that I was significantly lower than consensus on Paul, who even popped up as the final pick for the Chiefs of some first-round mocks during draft week.

Looking at my personal rankings, he finished slightly outside my top 100 as my 15th-ranked tackle. I was higher on him in the middle of the season, because I saw a guy who made it work despite some technical deficiencies thanks to a massive 86-inch wingspan and adequate athletic tools.

Nevertheless, when I watched him go up against better competition at the Senior Bowl and then really dove into his tape, I became more concerned about how he’d translate to the next level. First of all, he’s a sub-par run-blocker, who bends at the waist, comes in super-wide with his arms and has plenty of missed assignments in that regard.

As a pass-protector, his length routinely bailed him out, since his footwork needs to be largely overhauled, he presents an open chest for edge rushers to attack, tends to bear-hug guys and overall, there’s a disconnect between his upper and lower half. Miami needed O-line help now, even if he’s just your swing tackle, rather than a developmental guy.

Caedan Wallace, OT, Penn State – 68th overall to the Patriots

Now, Caedan Wallace is very different in terms of what he presents to an NFL team. He ranked 18th for me among the tackle class. So in terms of how much earlier he was taken than where I thought his value was, he’s pretty much on par with Paul going 13 spots earlier, but Paul at least offers some more upside that you can buy into.

Sure, you can make an argument that after selecting a quarterback in the top three, you want to make sure you have guys with extensive starting experience from a Power Five conference to protect that guy. The broad frame is pro-ready, whether he fits his hands in the run or pass game, he’s able to apply force effectively and lock up rushers, with a good understanding of the pocket, when he connects the right way.

With that being said, you do see him swing his arms and dip his head into contact trying to create movement, his pad level is too high and so are his hands in pass-pro, while his lateral agility is below-average for the position. As such, you see him overset vs. speed off the edge and struggle to mirror inside counters on tape. I think he can start at right tackle day one, but you already have Michael Onwenu there and now you’re probably asking Wallace to flip sides.

Marist Liufau, LB, Notre Dame – 87th overall to the Cowboys

Looking at this linebacker class, the scouting community as well as the NFL itself were down on the prospects available in relation to the other positions. That’s why Texas A&M’s Edgerrin Cooper was the first guy off the board at pick 45 (Packers) as the only one in the first two rounds. That’s why it was surprising to see a bit of a run on the group in round three, with five of them getting selected.

The two surprise names here were Liufau and Ty’Ron Hopper going to Green Bay (91st overall), despite already having invested in the position. However, not only did I have the latter a couple of spots higher in my LB rankings and he went four picks later, I don’t think he offers the type of profile Dallas should be looking for.

Liufau played a lot of “overhang” and as a matchup player against guys in the slot and while he has great length along with hitting power, his ability to diagnose and flow to the ball from traditional stack alignments is underdeveloped. So based on the player evaluation itself (as my LB14), this was a couple of rounds early.

However, when you look through the spectrum of them already missing out on Texas running back Jonathon Brooks in the second round, (who owner Jerry Jones proclaimed his love for less than 24 hours earlier), and then still passing on the chance of getting USC’s Marshawn Lloyd, it makes this even more confusing.

Especially considering one pick later the Packers snatched up the latter and he may be next in line to go off for 100 rushing yards against Dallas when they meet in the playoffs.

Luke McCaffrey, WR, Rice – 100th overall to the Commanders

Capping off day two of the draft, we saw another guy with NFL bloodlines hear his name called. Funnily enough, guys that fall into that category went later than projected or in some cases even went undrafted, if you take out those two top-five picks in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Joe Alt.

McCaffrey to me is one of those where the name value pushed him up higher than I thought he should’ve gone. Now, I understand why you’d want to buy into a player like this. Luke transitioned from quarterback to wide receiver just two years ago, yet he put up just under 1000 yards and 13 touchdowns through the air this past season for Rice.

You certainly see the smarts for the position, he catches pretty much everything, he’s incredibly tough dealing with hits and he had a nice combine showing. Having mentioned that, he doesn’t separate a whole lot on tape. His stem set-ups, incorporating different pacing, the efficiency in footwork at the top of routes and the burst coming out of those all need work.

Even though some of it certainly had to do with forcing passes to his best weapon, McCaffrey’s quarterback also threw 10 interceptions going his way. This was my 25th-ranked WR and he was the 16th one off the board in an insanely deep class with a lot of talent on the board at that point (Oregon’s Troy Franklin, UCF’s Javon Baker, etc.).

Jordan Jefferson, IDL, LSU – 116th overall to the Jaguars

Based on consensus boards, Jordan Jefferson was projected to go around pick 200. Myself, I had him outside my top-20 interior defensive linemen and I think you can get this type of player over the course of the final two rounds or even on the undrafted free agent market.

Jefferson is capable of owning his space in the run game and he can work the depth of the pocket when put in one-on-one situations, but he lacks the range working off blocks to actually make plays on the ball carrier. He also gives you very little outside of the bull rush, which is reflected in his production as a pass-rusher, being limited to just QB pressures on just over 200 opportunities.

While I don’t want to define a player by one action, at one point during one-on-ones at Senior Bowl week he tossed UConn guard Christian Haynes’ helmet out of frustration after getting shut down once again trying to go through that guy’s chest. That was pretty telling for me.

Tory Taylor, P, Iowa – 122nd overall to the Bears

You can absolutely use one of your late-round picks on securing guys who teams will be calling up for to bring into camp as UDFAs, especially if you have excess capital. However, when you’re the only team to select a punter and you take him in the fourth round, that’s questionable. Then, if you’re only slated to pick twice more outside of your two top-10 selections, you have people scratching their heads.

With the 75th overall selection, Chicago brought in a developmental tackle I really liked in Yale’s Kiran Amegadjie, but this isn’t a roster yet where a player in that mold plus a punter are how you should be approaching this.

Let’s not forget that they sent a fourth-rounder next year to the Bills in exchange for pick 144, which they used on Kansas edge defender Austin Booker to make their class look better – and I think it’s a worthwhile investment.

So this has very little to do with the player himself in Tory Taylor. Taylor was the biggest offensive weapon for an Iowa team that was involved in the games with the lowest Over/Unders on a weekly basis, leading the country in total punts, having nearly 1000 extra yards and still ranking fourth in average (48.3). This is about the opportunity cost and usage of assets.

Tarheeb Still, CB, Maryland – 136th overall to the Chargers

The fifth round started with two overvalued corners, between Auburn’s Nehemiah Pritchett and Tarheeb Still going back-to-back.

You like the willingness to put hands on receivers early and the spry feet to play close-up or soft press technique. You like his spatial awareness combined with the mental capacity to identify route-combinations in zone coverage and he earned an 88.4 PFF run-defense grade in 2023.

On the negative end, this is an average athlete with arms that didn’t quite measure in at 30 inches. He gets very handsy at the top of routes, he lacks that make-up gear if he does lose phase with his man and he simply lacks the mass at 185 pounds to bring bigger ball-carriers to the ground reliably, finishing with a 16.3% career missed-tackle rate.

Of the 14 corners selected the rest of the way who I actually evaluated (plus two others I didn’t get to), I had 13 ranked ahead of Still.

Keilan Robinson, RB, Texas – 167th overall to the Jaguars

We can argue the validity of complaining about a fifth-round running back here, but there was still plenty of talent left at this point and this was the RB31 on consensus boards and was the 15th one off the board.

This is a 5’8”, 185-pound running back with less than 800 rushing yards in five seasons between Alabama and Texas and only once caught double-digit passes. Clearly, this was a pick made with the return game in mind, where he made an impact on kickoffs these past two years, but he didn’t even return punts.

One pick before them went Purdue’s Tyrone Tracy Jr., who was my personal RB8, with a receiver and return background. This in comparison profiles as someone who typically goes undrafted.