Biggest remaining needs for each NFC team heading into the 2023 NFL season

Atlanta Falcons, NFC South – Proven edge rusher

There’s a lot to like about the Atlanta Falcons heading into year three under head coach Arthur Smith, even though purely by the win-loss total they’ve posted back-to-back 7-10 records.

This could be one of the most interesting offenses for football nerds like myself, because of their return to a ground-heavy approach. They don’t mind handing the ball off on third-and-three, yet they bring the new-school flair of this incredibly interchangeable usage of personnel among their skill-position group.

Meanwhile, they’re moving on at defensive coordinator from the retired Dean Pees to former Saints D-line coach Ryan Nielsen, so we should see a shift in terms of their front dynamics to a certain degree. Signing Jessie Bates in free agency as rangy safety capable of playing center-field and trading minimal draft capital for former third-overall Jeffrey Okudah would indicate that we may see more single-high structures and man-coverage on the perimeter.

I actually outlined the Falcons' D-line as being one of the most improved position groups across the league. This is due to the additions of veterans David Onyemata, Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree, along with third-round pick Zach Harrison (Ohio State) and a UDFA I believe has a chance to stick on the roster in Ikenna Enechukwu (Rice).

Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams reacts as he is pressured by Bud Dupree #48 of the Tennessee Titans

With that being said, while we may see more even fronts with Campbell as a six-technique defensive end, the only proven guy rushing off the edge is Lorenzo Carter, who they brought back for two more years at a nine-million-dollar price tag (but he’s below the 10% rate I’d like to see for any primary rusher in terms pressures per passing down opportunity). Last year’s second-round pick Arnold Ebiketie did flash as a rookie, but played just below half of the defensive snaps and also didn’t clear that mark.

So unless Bud Dupree can suddenly find some flexibility in his banged-up body to shorten the corner without relying on power, they don’t really have anybody to do so in-house currently.

Carolina Panthers, NFC South – 4i-/5-technique

A breath of fresh air is swirling around Carolina these days, with a completely new coaching staff. With already one of the best young offensive lines in front of first-overall pick Bryce Young and Frank Reich’s highly experienced staff around him, we should finally see that unit be competent in both facets of the game.

Defensively, they’ve already played at a very high level for stretches, with several underrated pieces in the front seven. What they’ve been missing most of, as opposing offenses started figuring out how to defeat their blitz packages former defensive coordinator Phil Snow threw out there (and just in general what they’ve needed to close out games) is that guy across from Brian Burns, who can win rushing off the edge.

However, Yetur Gross-Matos has been an excellent early-down run defender and they just traded up in the middle of the third round for substantial resources in order to bring in Oregon’s D.J. Johnson (who I don’t believe is ready to contribute in a significant way yet, but has tremendous athletic potential).

So, as I think of the rest of the NFC South using a lot more heavy personnel offensively than you see across most of the league, I expect that to force Carolina to match with base quite a bit, even if new DC Ejiro Evero in principle wants to live in light boxes.

Derrick Brown #95 of the Carolina Panthers blocks a pass by Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals

Derrick Brown really came into his own last season as a top-ten pick from three years ago, and they stole Shy Tuttle from within their division, to give them more flexibility on the interior. However, that base D-end spot you’d find in a 3-4, that asks players to play head-up or shaded inside of the tackle is where they lack quality options.

DeShawn Williams is currently slated to start there, but he’s had back-to-back seasons with PFF grades around 56 only. Beyond that, Henry Anderson has been plagued by injuries lately as a journeyman player and then you’re looking at UDFAs from the last two years in Marquan McCall and Jalen Redmond (Oklahoma).

New Orleans Saints, NFC South – Nickelback

Looking at the crowd that insists “the cap isn’t real,” what Saints general manager Mickey Loomis has done throughout his tenure in the Big Easy is the first thing they can point towards. They’ve just continued to roll over money to future years and restructured contracts, in order to maintain a competitive roster.

The latest of those moves was handing quarterback Derek Carr a four-year, 150-million-dollar deal despite being nearly 60 million in the minus to begin the offseason in terms of effective cap space.

Last year’s first-round pick Trevor Penning needs to step in at left tackle coming off an injury, but more importantly, that defense needs to continue being one of the top units in the league. Especially if they are to have a chance at competing with the elite teams in the NFC.

More than in years prior, they’re relying on young players up front to give them quality play, as two top-40 picks from this past April may end up starting for them eventually. The back seven stays pretty much intact, although there will be a battle for that second starting outside corner spot between Paulson Adebo (who took a step back in year two) and Alontae Taylor (who I don’t believe the grading or pure numbers represent how well he performed over the latter half of his rookie campaign).

Regardless, neither of them spent any extended stretch in the slot, where they let a long-time veteran in Chris Harris Jr. walk and now his former Denver teammate Bradley Roby is currently slated to be the starter. That’s not super encouraging, however, as he’s coming off the worst season of his nine-year career and has an overall missed tackle rate of nearly 18%, which doesn’t compensate for his declining quality in coverage.

As for alternatives, Lonnie Johnson Jr. played less than 200 snaps for a banged-up Titans secondary last season and Ugo Amadi spent time in three different cities in 2022.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFC South – Receiver depth

We are just about half a year away from the Bucs winning this division somewhat by default. They took care of business down the stretch with Tom Brady at the helm, but they seem to be the clear fourth team in this NFC South equation.

While the early signs of a battle at quarterback between Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask and maybe even John Wolford have not been too encouraging (and I wonder who starts at nickel for them defensively), you could argue that a lot of the key pieces from that Super Bowl run just two-and-a-half years ago are still there.

That includes wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, while that third slot has transitioned from Antonio Brown (who threw up the deuces to his NFL career mid-way through the following season) to Russell Gage on a 10-million-dollar per year contract being signed in free agency last March.

We can argue if Big Mike’s prime is finally winding down to some degree and if Chris Godwin can return to the type of physical pass-catcher he was prior to damaging multiple ligaments in his knee in December of 2021. But in theory that is still a very likable trio of weapons, especially if Cade Otton can build on a strong late-season run as a rookie.

Where things look a bit bare is beyond those starters in 11 personnel. Looking at the collection of wide receivers currently on the roster, Deven Thompkins had five catches as a rookie (primarily contributing in the return game) and Kaylon Geiger didn’t have any.

David Moore had a nice three-year stretch in Seattle, but after signing a two-year in deal in Carolina ahead of 2021, he was released before that season started and was only active for three games (with no catches) across four other teams since then. Otherwise, it’s all UDFAs.