Broncos Playoff Scenarios: Is Denver out of the playoff picture after loss to Patriots on Week 16

The Denver Broncos' loss to the New England Patriots in Week 16 put a dampener on their playoff hopes. Sean Payton had led his team to a 7-7 record after a 1-5 start and that they were still in postseason contention was already a minor miracle. They were expected to dispatch Bill Belichick's team, who were a measly 3-11 before this game.

Had they won the game, the Broncos would have improved to 8-7 to tie with the Colts, Texans, Jaguars, Bengals and Steelers. They would have been one game behind the currently 9-5 Chiefs and in with a shout to snatch the AFC West crown from them as well.

Instead, they are now 7-8 and below 0.500 again. They have fallen to being the 11th seed in the AFC and their chances of making the playoffs stand at 5 percent. It is not an ideal position to be in but they are still not mathematically out from postseason contention. Here is what needs to happen for them to make it.

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Can the Broncos still make the 2023 NFL Playoffs?

Denver will play the Los Angeles Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders in their last two games of the season. If they lose both these games, they will not make it to the postseason since they are not in the playoff spots currently.

But if they win one of those and lose one of those, they will finish 8-9. While that will be a losing record, there are other games that can work out in their favor. They have five teams sitting at 8-7 currently, as mentioned before, and if they lose both their remaining games, their records will be identical to Denver's in that scenario.

The Broncos would need to depend on the Kansas City Chiefs, their divisional rivals, to defeat the Bengals and also hope other results fall their way. Of course, since the Texans and the Colts play in the final game, one of them will not fall down to a losing record. If Indianapolis wins and Houston loses, the Texans will still be above the Broncos given they have beaten Denver this season.

If Houston wins, the Colts will have the same conference wins i.e. six as the Broncos, given that Denver have currently four wins and face two AFC teams in their final two games. That will also be the same as the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC. None of these teams have played the Broncos, so then it will come down to who has won more common games. The Bengals with three conference wins will be eliminated.

In the above scenario, all these four teams will be vying for the last Wildcard spot out of three, since either the Buffalo Bills or Miami Dolphins will take one and the Cleveland Browns will take the other since they have nine wins already. Among common games, while Denver will edge out Jacksonville and tie the Pittsburgh Steelers, they will miss out to the Colts.

This is because the Broncos have lost to the Patriots but the Colts have won their matchup. That is balanced by Denver beating Cleveland, who in turn beat Indianapolis. Thus, it will come down to their games against the Texans. Sean Payton's team lost to Houston earlier this year, while the Colts won one game. Even if they lose their next one, they will have a 0.500 record against Houston while for the Broncos it will be 0.

Therefore, if the Broncos lose even one more game, they are practically out of the playoffs. To ensure that the meager five percent chance is converted, they need to win both their games and hope the other teams one game ahead of them lose out.

Then Denver will finish with a 9-8 record and clinch a playoff spot as the Steelers, Jaguars, Bengals, and one of the Colts or Texans will be 8-9. At that point, Russell Wilson and company will join either the Buffalo Bills or the Miami Dolphins, and the Cleveland Browns or Baltimore Ravens, in going on the road to the divisional champions.