Christian Kirk fantasy outlook: Should you draft Jaguars WR in 2023?

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk enjoyed a breakout fantasy football season last year, setting new career highs in many receiving categories. He will look to build upon his strong showing during the 2023 NFL season and potentially take another step forward.

Kirk finished his breakout 2022 campaign ranked among the top 20 wide receivers in fantasy points per game. The Texas A&M alum proved that changing teams and being elevated into a larger role within a new offensive scheme could unlock his potential.

Now entering the second year in a new system, which historically signifies further improvements, Kirk has become an intriguing target in fantasy football.

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Christian Kirk's 2023 Fantasy Outlook

Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk had a career year by just about every statistical standard during the 2022 NFL season. This includes setting career-highs in many important categories, including his 84 receptions on 133 targets for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns. He proved capable of being the WR1 for his team last year despite never doing so previously.

Kirk spent the first four years of his NFL career with the Arizona Cardinals. He officially became an unrestricted free agent when his rookie contract expired last offseason.

When the Jacksonville Jaguars signed him to a new contract, the deal was heavily criticized by many around the NFL. The doubters felt like the Jaguars overpaid for Kirk and that he couldn't be a primary receiver.

Jacksonville's new addition proved all of them wrong by quickly developing strong chemistry with rising-star quarterback Trevor Lawrence in new head coach Doug Pederson's offensive system.

His scheme is highly favorable for quarterbacks, and Lawrence demonstrated a preference for Kirk in important situations. His new wide receiver led the team in overall targets and red zone targets last year.

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With the 2023 NFL season marking year two of this extremely successful dynamic from last year, Kirk has a real opportunity to be a fantasy football asset. While he will have more competition for targets, his role could remain unchanged.

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Is Christian Kirk a good pick in Football Football this year?

Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk did the majority of his work out of the slot last year in his first season with the Jacksonville Jaguars despite being Trevor Lawrence's primary target in their passing game.

Kirk ran nearly 77 percent of his routes as a slot receiver, with teammate Zay Jones being the primary wide receiver on the perimeter. The scheme worked well and could see a major boost in the 2023 NFL season.

The Jaguars made a bold move this year when they acquired Calvin Ridley via trade with the Atlanta Falcons. While the former superstar hasn't played football in over a year, he was once one of the most productive wide receivers in the entire NFL. He will theoretically help bring the Jaguars' offense to the next level to potentially compete with the elite teams this year.

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Many managers worry how much Ridley will negatively impact Kirk's production in fantasy football this year. While Ridley is sure to command a high volume of targets, especially since he was brought in to be a WR1, it's much more likely to drastically decrease Jones' value than Kirk's.

Calvin Ridley is expected to play on the perimeter, where Zay Jones had a breakout season of his own last year, while Kirk remains in his preferred slot position. Both can thrive in this rising offense.

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Where should you draft Christian Kirk this year?

Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk currently ranks as the WR30 and 76th overall player in upcoming 2023 fantasy football drafts, according to his recent ADP. This means he profiles as WR3 on most fantasy football rosters, depending upon league format and scoring settings. He easily has enough upside to emerge as at least a WR2, possibly even a WR1, with a relatively safe floor in his high-powered offense.

Despite the addition of Calvin Ridley, it's reasonable to expect Kirk to have a similar output this season to last year's breakout campaign. He will retain his slot receiver role while adding another chemistry with his new team. It's also been proven in recent years that top-tier offenses can produce two elite wide receivers in fantasy football.

The Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles all did so last year, with several other teams producing more than one wide receiver with strong fantasy football production. The Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Chargers are among the examples.

All of this makes Christian Kirk a high-upside receiving target in fantasy drafts this year, considering his modest ADP. He currently sits in the same tier as other veterans like Michael Pittman and Diontae Johnson.

Kirk is likely to see more volume in his favorable offensive system than most other options at a similar ADP. He is an excellent choice as an implied seventh-round pick.