Dalton Kincaid fantasy outlook: Should you draft Bills rookie TE in 2023?

Tight end Dalton Kincaid was the subject of a 2023 draft day drama. The Buffalo Bills traded up two spots with the Jacksonville Jaguars to select the former San Diego and Utah standout. That move placed them in front of the Dallas Cowboys, a team also interested in picking the Nevada native.

Kincaid was widely regarded as the best pass-catching tight end in the 2023 draft class. Hence, he became the only TE selected in round one of this year’s draft. With the Bills having high hopes for the 2022 First Team All-Pac-12 member, it’s interesting to assess his fantasy football value for the upcoming season.

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Dalton Kincaid’s 2023 Fantasy Outlook

Dalton Kincaid at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine

Kincaid can potentially become one of the more impactful tight ends in the passing game. He started showing promise when he had 36 receptions for 510 yards and eight touchdowns for the Utes in 2021. Those numbers translate to 14.2 yards per catch.

A year later, he averaged 12.7 yards per reception out of 70 catches for 890 yards while having the same number of touchdowns. His size, decent speed, and sure hands make him an asset for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills offense.

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Since he gets chunks of yards in every catch, Kincaid will likely be one of Allen’s primary targets during third-down situations. He can help the Bills escape third-and-long situations, especially if he gets one-on-one coverages against defensive backs.

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Is Dalton Kincaid a good pick in fantasy football this year?

Dalton Kincaid will be one of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen's new targets.

Good” is a relative term in fantasy football based on the player’s average draft position. The ADP helps fantasy players determine if players like Dalton Kincaid contribute above or below expectations.

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However, Buffalo’s offensive approach gives him several opportunities to rack up receiving yards and touchdowns. While the Bills ranked seventh in passing yards per game last season, Allen ranked second (762) behind Devin Singletary (819).

Singletary is already with the Houston Texans, giving the Bills one less threat in their rushing attack. If you remove Allen’s stats from the ground game, Buffalo’s backfield isn’t that threatening. It remains to be seen if James Cook, Damien Harris, Latavis Murray, and Nyheim Hines can maintain the team’s production from last season.

Even if they could, the aerial approach remains the priority for offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. That bodes well for Kincaid, mainly if the Bills use more two-tight-end sets. Even without that formation, Buffalo is shallow at wide receiver after Stefon Diggs.

Gabe Davis had his moments, including the 2022 Divisional Round game versus the Kansas City Chiefs, but is largely inconsistent. Khalil Shakir is untested, while Deonte Harty played only four games last season due to a toe injury.

Therefore, Kincaid can play as a pass-catching tight end. However, tempering expectations for him is best because he must share snaps with Dawson Knox. Kincaid will get his numbers, but not in the levels of Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, or Mark Andrews.

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Where should you draft Dalton Kincaid this year?

Tight end Dalton Kincaid at practice with the Buffalo Bills.

In fantasy football, it’s better to set low hopes for rookies.

No wonder fantasy football websites project Dalton Kincaid’s average draft position from 110 to 130 for standard, points-per-reception, and half-PPR leagues.

In a ten-player league, Kincaid’s ideal draft position is from the 11th to 13th round. Getting him that late makes him an ideal flex option at most. But if he will be the starting tight end on your team, you better get elite fantasy football players in other positions to support his production.