Deshaun Watson fantasy outlook: Is Browns QB a good pick in 2023?

Deshaun Watson will enter the 2023 NFL season as a Week 1 starter for the first time since 2020. He sat out the entire 2021 season while dealing with multiple accusations of sexual assault and was also suspended at the beginning of the 2022 season after being traded.

The Cleveland Browns made a major investment in the former elite quarterback with 2023 always the target season for their new era.

Before missing close to two years of playing time, Watson was one of the top quarterbacks in the entire NFL. It's unclear if he will ever be able to get back to the level, making him one of the most polarizing fantasy football quarterbacks this year.

Deshaun Watson's 2023 fantasy outlook

Deshaun Watson

Deshaun Watson was acquired by the Cleveland Browns via trade during the 2022 NFL offseason, despite his unresolved legal issues and potentially pending suspension.

The Browns also made him one of the highest-paid players in NFL history even before he played a snap for his new team. The franchise believes he can continue on his previous trajectory of being one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

During his last season with the Houston Texans before sitting out for a year, Watson led the entire NFL with a massive 4,823 passing yards and a career-high 33 passing touchdowns. He was also the most efficient he's ever been, setting new career highs with 70.2% completion and a 112.4 passer rating. He was undoubtedly among the most elite of quarterbacks, including in fantasy football.

In a limited sample size of just six games during the 2022 NFL season with the Browns, Watson didn't at all look like his usual self. He threw for just seven touchdowns and five interceptions with an abysmal 58.2% completion and 79.1 passer rating.

There are two ways to look at this. One, by being positive that he shook the rust off, or two, by complaining that he's not the same player anymore. This explains why he's such a polarizing fantasy football quarterback this year, with an extremely high ceiling and a dangerously low floor.

Is Deshaun Watson a good pick in fantasy football this year?

Deshaun Watson

Deshaun Watson profiles as a fantasy football quarterback who will be heavily targeted by managers seeking upside in a draft, while also being deliberately faded by those looking to avoid high-risk players in the position.

He has arguably the widest range of realistic possible outcomes of any quarterback ahead of the 2023 fantasy football season.

In the best-case scenario, Watson can return to his form with the Houston Texans and once again establish himself in the elite tier of NFL quarterbacks. Before his absence, he was competing with Patrick Mahomes, including in the NFL playoffs, as one of the most exciting players in the league.

In the worst possible outcome, especially for the Cleveland Browns, Watson turns out to be a complete bust and never again flashes his superstar upside that was previously on the rise.

He's being paid to be the former version, and the Browns have based some of their offseason moves around him.

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Since acquiring Watson, the Browns have upgraded their wide receivers by adding Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore. They have also moved on from Kareem Hunt, suggesting they plan on passing the ball much more this year than they have in the last few seasons under head coach Kevin Stefanski.

Watson will get every opportunity to thrive this year, and if he can capitalize on it, he can be an absolute steal in fantasy football.

Where should you draft Deshaun Watson this year?

Deshaun Watson

Deshaun Watson currently ranks as the QB9 and 81st overall player in 2023 fantasy football drafts, according to his recent ADP. This means he profiles as a back-end QB1 on fantasy rosters or a strong choice as a Superflex option or starter in 2-QB formats.

His ADP also suggests he's being selected around the seventh round in most fantasy drafts, depending on the league format and scoring settings.

The 2023 fantasy football season appears to have eight quarterbacks ranked above the rest of the pack in just about every set of consensus rankings, placed into two tiers.

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts represent the absolute elite class of fantasy quarterbacks. They are followed by Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields in tier two.

Based on his current ADP, Watson comes in as the first quarterback left out of the elite eight for the 2023 season. This puts him in the same tier and similar ADP range as other veterans such as Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers.

What Watson has going for him differently is significantly more rushing upside. He averaged more than 400 rushing yards per season with 17 rushing touchdowns during his time with the Houston Texans.

At his current ADP, Deshaun Watson makes for a high-upside quarterback who can potentially shatter his projections. He does still come with much risk, so fantasy football managers who select him should also prioritize another backup quarterback.