Week 16 of the 2023 fantasy football season marks the second round of the playoffs in most leagues. It may be the first round of the playoffs in some leagues, but either way, the postseason has officially kicked off in almost all formats. This makes it more important than ever for managers to set the best lineups possible or run the risk of being eliminated from championship contention.
In the playoffs, roster depth becomes less important than simply producing the best lineup possible for one individual week. Managers should be going all in on their starters and ignoring the need for stashing future assets. Those who have made it this far into the season likely know the importance of maximizing potential fantasy scores by targeting players in the most favorable situations.
Determining which players to start in fantasy football each week is based on a large number of variables. Some of the most crucial factors include injury situations to relevant players, recent individual performances, direct weekly matchups, offensive projections, expected workload, and potential game scripts.
Using the Start/Sit Optimizer can make this complicated and extensive process much easier. This valuable tool weighs every possible variable for any player in a given week before generating lineup advice and fantasy projections. It can help to make sure playoff lineups are fully maximized.
The optimizer was used to help produce some potential starts and sits in Week 16 of the 2023 fantasy football season. The following list features an ideal target and fade candidate, based on their individual weekly situation, from each of the four major offensive fantasy positions.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Start 'Em Picks
Dak Prescott
For the first time since Week 6, Dak Prescott failed to record multiple touchdowns in his most recent game. It was also the first time since Week 1 that he scored zero touchdowns. He entered Week 15 as one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL, totaling a massive 23 touchdowns in his past seven games, but his scorching hot streak came to an end.
When the Dallas Cowboys take on the Miami Dolphins in Week 16, fantasy football managers shouldn't hesitate to plug Prescott back into their lineups. The Dolphins are currently allowing the 12th most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and this game is expected to be an offensive shootout. His excellent overall season and favorable game script make him a strong lineup option this week.
Bijan Robinson
Arthur Smith drove many fantasy football managers crazy last week when he gave superstar rookie Bijan Robinson just ten total touches. It was his second-lowest output of the entire 2023 NFL season and came at the worst time with the first round of the fantasy playoffs taking place.
Managers with Robinson on their rosters who still managed to advance in their playoffs should make sure to keep him in their Week 16 lineups. He has still managed to finish among the top 20 running backs in five of his past six games and faces a favorable opponent this week. The Indianapolis Colts are currently allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to his position.
Garrett Wilson
The New York Jets' offense has been one of the worst overall units in the NFL this season and it has negatively impacted their players in fantasy football. Garrett Wilson is a superstar talent who has turned in several big games this year but has also been an inconsistent producer due to the Jets' lack of offense in general. He has recorded at least seven receptions in six of his past 11 games but has failed to exceed 50 yards in four of them.
Week 16 presents the most favorable situation possible for Wilson in fantasy football relative to his direct matchup. The Washington Commanders' defense has been torched by opposing passing attacks all season long and is one of the worst overall units this year. This includes allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Trey McBride
Since taking over as the Arizona Cardinals' starting tight end in Week 8, Trey McBride has been a fantasy football superstar. He has ranked among the top 12 tight ends in PPR leagues, including four top-three finishes. He has done so by recording at least five receptions in all but one of those games.
McBride has emerged as a lineup staple in fantasy football and could see an additional boost to his already solid value in Week 16. The Chicago Bears have one of the worst overall defenses in the NFL and have particularly struggled to limit opposing tight ends, They are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit 'Em Picks
Jordan Love
Trends are extremely important when finalizing lineup decisions for fantasy football quarterbacks. They are often the highest-scoring overall players, so it's crucial to find the most favorable options each week. Jordan Love has been trending in the wrong direction in recent weeks, ranking outside the top 15 quarterbacks in each of the past two weeks after a stretch of three consecutive top-10 finishes.
Things won't get any easier for Love in Week 16 when the Green Bay Packers face off against a deceptively strong Carolina Panthers passing defense. While they have arguably been the worst overall team this year, they have excelled in limiting fantasy football quarterbacks. This includes allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
Gus Edwards
With Keaton Mitchell suffering an injury in Week 15, Gus Edwards received 16 carries in the Baltimore Ravens' most recent game. This was his largest workload since Week 8 and he also scored his first touchdown in his past three games. While he is expected to be the featured back again with Mitchell out, managers should still try to avoid using him in Week 16.
The San Francisco 49ers have one of the most elite defenses in the entire NFL, ranking towards the top of the league in just about every possible category. This includes excelling in stopping the opposing rushing game and allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Terry McLaurin
The Washington Commanders have surprisingly ranked among the top five NFL teams this season in overall passing production. This has helped their wide receivers in fantasy football. Terry McLaurin has been their most consistent contributor, recording at least seven targets in eight of his past nine games.
Despite his strong 2023 fantasy football season, McLaurin is a fade candidate in Week 16 in one of the worst possible matchups. The New York Jets allow the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers by a wide margin and have been even better against perimeter players, where Mclaurin lines up almost exclusively.
Cole Kmet
Tight ends are the most difficult position to navigate in fantasy football because most of the options are extremely inconsistent with their weekly output. Cole Kmet is an excellent example of this concept with his wide range of outcomes. He has equally finished six times each among the top 12 tight ends and outside of the top 25 in PPR leagues.
This makes Kmet a classic streamer who should only be started in favorable situations. Week 16 is not one of them when his Chicago Bears play the Arizona Cardinals. While their defense has been weak as a whole, the Cardinals have been challenging to beat for tight ends. They are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.