Evaluating the rookie quarterbacks with three weeks to go

#3 Josh Allen

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I had Allen as my number five quarterback and it was not as much due to the inconsistent accuracy that draft experts worried about, but rather because of poor pocket presence.

I can make a quarterback throw every route and read every concept a million times at practice, but having a feel for when and how to move inside the pocket while maintaining a throwing posture and keeping your eyes downfield is much harder to teach, because it is somewhat of an innate ability.

Far too often I saw Allen scramble and make bad decisions instead of maximizing the space he had in the pocket to make throws down the field or worst case go down and live for another play.

The advantage he had over all those other guys I had ranked ahead of him was the fact that he had experience in a pro-style offense and his rare physical traits were off the charts. So far I think those are what really have stood out, while his mental game is starting to come along.

When I started watching Allen’s tape at Wyoming I saw a young Roethlisberger body-wise, but through his first nine games he has looked more like Cam Newton as a runner. He is now up to 490 yards and five TDs on the ground, with 401 of those coming off scrambles.

I remember a week three game versus the Vikings where the Bills pulled off the upset in a beatdown at Minnesota behind a ferocious defense and a Josh Allen killing the Vikes taking off multiple times.

Anthony Barr seemed to be Allen’s personal target, because he outran, trucked and even hurdled the 6’5” linebacker on separate plays.

Then in week 13 it was the Dolphins linebacker Kiko Alonso, who he once spun around like a ballerina and then beat to the edge on another scramble after he made a D-tackle completely whiff on like a dead-leg back juke.

I knew he was a tremendous athlete, but this guy is on another level. There’s only so many guys with the speed to run past linebackers one play and then have the size to run over them the very next.

In one of the crazier statistics I’ve ever seen, Allen just broke Michael Vick’s record of rushing yards in a three-game span with 335. When you run like that fumbles occur, but only two times he has put the ball on the turf and saw the defense recover.

Through nine starts Allen is 26th among all players in the league with 29 runs resulting in first downs despite just 66 carries. Only Mitch Trubisky has turned a higher percentage of his runs into first downs among player with over 50 attempts, as 43.9 percent of Allen’s rushes have resulted in fresh sets of downs.

He has produced 19 runs of 10+ yards and has made it past the marker ten of his 17 rush attempts on third down (58.8 percent). All of that while missing four games with a banged up shoulder.

The Bills are a top ten rushing offense, but without their QB’s production only three teams would rank below them in total yards and they would be dead-last in yards per carry. You would like to see him take a few less shots, but he is one of the very few who has the frame to sustain that, plus he is starting to slide more.

In addition to what he does on the ground, he has a howitzer of an arm and he is starting to make some big plays with it.

Allen’s overall numbers are definitely not where you’d like them to be, as he is completing just 52.4 percent of his passes with five touchdowns compared to nine interceptions and a QB rating of 62.8, but a lot of that has to do with the situations he is put in. I already mentioned their poor rushing numbers if their QB doesn’t run it himself, as all other ball-carrier average 3.63 yards per carry – less than half of what he does – but the Bills also simply don’t have the playmakers to make things happen with the ball in their hands.

They are second-to-last ahead of only the Cardinals in yards after catch with a little over 1000 and even though I didn’t track the numbers, I can tell you that there are very few if any teams that have faced third & 10+ more often than Buffalo.

When watching the Bills rookie QB on tape the one thing that jumps out to you is his arm strength. I think Patrick Mahomes and Allen are about in the same ball park – and I’m not sure if anybody else parks there.

He can be late on some throws and still get them to his targets before the defender has a chance to make a play on it because he just puts lasers out there, while also threatening any defense to go over the top.

His accuracy might not be ideal all the time, especially on easy dumpoffs and other underneath completions, but he is clearly precise enough to shred defenses. Even though he has put up crazy numbers on the ground since returning from injury, I have been very intrigued with some of the throws he has made during that stretch.

Versus the Dolphins in week 13 he launched two stupendous rockets to Zay Jones – one running to his right and hitting hum at the end-line for a touchdown and then another one out of his own end-zone scrambling left and hitting Jones at the sideline on third and 12 for an extra ten off the wrong foot.

Last week against the Jets he was backed up inside his own ten and didn’t let the safety bait him into a risky throw on a go-route against a muddy coverage look, but instead stayed patient and drilled a shallow post that the receiver sat down over the middle, plus later he connected on a beautiful back-shoulder pass with a slot receiver running an inside fade route versus cover-one.

While he made a stupid decision scrambling to his right and just throwing up a prayer while getting hit out of bounds – which was intercepted – I came away really impressed by the rookie.

On their go-ahead drive he almost put them ahead by a touchdown on a perfect pass to his receiver running a corner route towards the pylon on a designed rollout, before settling for three, which didn’t prove to be enough.

I don’t think anybody in this class nearly has the upside Allen presents. He can kill defenses as a scrambler against man-coverages and when he gets confused by coverage looks, he can throw off either leg and fading away better than a lot of guys can from a clean pocket and he is starting to make big-time throws from the pocket.

Obviously I’d like him to maintain a normal throwing posture more instead of moving East and West, but I take it for now. The Bills O-line has been sub-par, allowing Allen to be sacked on 10.3 percent of his dropbacks.

The only player on that offense to make anything happen with the ball in his hands recently has been Isaiah McKenzie and he only just started the first game of his career.

Not only are the Bills 3-6 with Allen as their starter, as crazy as it sounds when you look at his passing numbers, adding his rushing, Allen actually owns the highest QBR among all rookie quarterbacks so far.