How can the Atlanta Falcons make the playoffs? Qualifying scenarios and chances for NFC South team explored

The Atlanta Falcons last made the NFL playoffs in 2017, the season after they lost Super Bowl LI to the New England Patriots. After finishing at 10-6, they went as far as the Divisional Round, losing to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Since then, the Falcons had five consecutive losing seasons. They are on the fringe of making it six straight in 2023. But on the bright side, Arthur Smith's crew still has a chance to end their postseason drought. However, extending their campaign will require help from another team.

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Atlanta Falcons Playoff Picture: Why Taylor Heinicke and Co. need help from Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With two regular-season games left, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the NFC South's top team at 8-7. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints are not far behind at 7-8. But as Sportskeeda's NFL Playoff Predictor calculated, the Falcons won't make it to the playoffs.

The Atlanta Falcons won't reach the 2023 postseason, per Sportskeeda's NFL playoff predictor.

However, it doesn't mean they don't have a shot at competing beyond the regular season. Winning the division guarantees an outright playoff berth and a home game during the Wild Card Round. Therefore, it's the easiest and most guaranteed path the Falcons can take to enter the postseason.

But for that to happen, the Falcons must win their remaining two games while the Buccaneers lose in Weeks 17 and 18. If they end up with identical records, the Buccaneers still have the upper hand because of the results during their head-to-head matchups this season.

In Week 7, Atlanta defeated Tampa Bay, 16-13, at Raymond James Stadium. Seven weeks later, they lost to the same team, 29-25, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Therefore, the Bucs lead their head-to-head by one point.

Conversely, going on a triple tie with the Buccaneers and the Saints gives the Falcons the stick's short end. But sweeping their next two games include a Week 18 Atlanta victory over New Orleans. If that happens, the Saints will have nine losses, eliminating them from playoff contention.

Meanwhile, the Saints and the Buccaneers will have a Week 17 faceoff. Even if the Buccaneers lose that game, they can still reach the postseason with a Week 18 victory over the Carolina Panthers, giving them a 9-8 record.

Therefore, the Falcons hope that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will lose to the Saints and the Panthers. On their part, they must defeat the Saints in their season finale and the Chicago Bears in Week 17. If that happens, they will win the division and get an automatic playoff spot.

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Atlanta Falcons playoff chances entering Week 17

The NFL's official website shared that the Atlanta Falcons have a ten percent playoff chance coming into Week 17 of the 2023 season. The probability comes from calculations made by Next Gen Stats.

Winning against the Bears in Week 17 improves their playoff chances to 16 percent. However, a loss drops their postseason probability to five percent.

Atlanta Falcons playoff probability before Week 17, according to Next Gen Stats, as shared on NFL.com

Defeating the Bears won't be easy because they've won three of their last four games. They will also play at home, wherein they've earned four of their six victories leading into Week 17. Chicago will also keep their playoff hopes alive by defeating the Atlanta Falcons but with the help of other favorable results.