J.J. McCarthy scouting report: Exploring the Michigan quarterback's strengths and weaknesses

A top-50 national recruit in 2021, J.J. McCarthy was limited to clean-up duties as a true freshman before taking over the starting gig in year two. He completed 64.6 of his passes for 2,719 yards and 22 touchdowns versus five interceptions, along with another 306 yards and five TDs on the ground. He led the Wolverines to their second straight Big Ten championship and CFP appearance.

He slightly bettered those numbers in 2023, completing 72.3% of his passes for 2,991 on 9.0 yards per attempt and 22 TDs vs. four INTs (plus three rushing TDs). That earned him first-team All-Big notice.

J.J. McCarthy scouting report

Physical make-up & arm talent:

• Smooth, consistent throwing motion, with a basketball-like follow-through
• Allowed the Wolverines to open up the offense a little bit more, with a wider spread look to it, because he could attack all areas of the field
• Features pro-ready drops and sells the exchange well as part of Michigan’s play-action heavy approach, attacking the intermediate-to-deep range where he needed to bounce an extra time or two for the picture to clear up
• At his best throwing over the middle of the field with routes coming into his vision, where he shows no fear of fitting the ball between defenders
• Has the arm strength to fire in tight window passes, where he beat closing defenders with the throw, and there are no issues driving speed-outs from the opposite hash
• Very capable of defeating defenders stacked over the top of his intended target with power throws to the back-shoulder, in particular tight-ends down the seams
• Accurate passer on the run, who has no problem spinning it without slowing down – delivers those passes between the second and third level whilst rolling outside with ease as well as when he has to go slightly across the direction he’s moving
• Shows some flexibility in his arm as he’s fading or releasing off the wrong foot whilst on the move

Processing & decision-making:

• Recognizes leverage and spacing advantages pre-snap and gets the ball there in a hurry, with Michigan using a lot of man/zone indicators to create those favorable looks
• Quick to get to his back on hooks when the defense voids the middle of the field or the hook-droppers widen a lot
• Understood how OC Sherrone Moore wanted to put zone defenders in conflict and showed the patience to force those guys to commit before hitting the open receiver
• Shows the ability to hold safeties dropping down with his eyes at one hash when he wants to hit digs and similar routes coming that way
• In 2023, the Wolverines started to allow him to make more “big-boy throws” and you see the arm talent to put the ball on the money, driving it on routes breaking towards the sideline in the intermediate-to-deep range
• In particular, those over routes off heavy play-action, in between defenders converging from multiple directions, where the ball needs some arc but also a good amount of pace
• You really like McCarthy’s projection into a wide zone-based offense, with his ability to make reads on three-level concepts off bootlegs and put the ball onto the chest of guys on crossers
• On third-and-seven plus, he this past season went 35-of-48 for 537 yards, with 27 of those 35 completions resulting in either a first down of touchdown (six of those)

Playmaking in & out of the pocket:

• Generally keeps both hands on the ball and maintains a throw-ready posture as he slides or shuffles inside the pocket, yet he can also hitch up in explosive fashion as the space around him closes down
• Sudden with the way he turns his throwing shoulder away from an oncoming rusher and dips underneath them screaming off the edge
• Features a quick spin to get out to his blindside (on the left) and re-gain a throwing position and effortlessly creates velocity to hit guys at the sideline as they convert their routes
• Legitimately has the wheels to get away from rushers who seem to have an angle on him
• Slippery athlete for the position, who can pick up crucial first downs with his legs if defenses leave a lane open in front of him – averaged 9.3 yards per scramble last season (18 for 168 yards)
• Surprised guys on the edge of the box or DBs coming up when he pauses for a split-second and then kicks into top gear, to beat them to the sideline
• Has some real wiggle to him as he maneuvers around defenders on the second level, as well as the elusiveness to turn his body away from defenders trying to grab him on the way by – forced 18 missed tackles on 39 carries last season
• You can actually run QB counter (bash) with him and you’ll see him press in order to set up cuts underneath blocks effectively

Weaknesses:

• Michigan’s offense really struggled to move the ball for stretches, when they faced defenses that could stop the run, with McCarthy looking indecisive in pure dropback situations, where he’d end up escaping the pocket and get tracked down due to the angles he took
• Has a bad tendency of overstriding on his release, especially passing to his left, and air-mails some balls because of it
• Doesn’t throw deep outside the numbers with the appropriate trajectory a lot of times, which would give his guys the ability to run underneath the ball
• Leads underneath defenders toward the intended target with his eyes quite a bit – in particular, he tips off flat-defenders the whole way when he locks in on some speed-outs and similar routes
• Could be labeled a bit of a “drifter” in the pocket and doesn’t look particularly comfortable when he isn’t presented a clean platform, while having had the benefit of a lot of clean surroundings, in 2022 especially, and would grind away a lot of games with their run game, to where he only attempted more than 30 passes once last season, including eight(!) in a win over Penn State

McCarthy is one of the toughest players for me to evaluate in this entire draft. For large stretches of games, he wasn’t asked to take over the offense and when he did have to step up at times, they couldn’t move the ball in traditional dropback settings. With that being said, the arm talent and elusiveness are clearly there to deliver high-level throws and make things happen outside the pocket.

To me, he’s still fairly raw and doesn’t wow me talent-wise to a point where I’d be willing to invest anything higher than a late first-round pick into this project. I get what the NFL is seeing, people rave about his mental makeup, and the tape certainly makes him more intriguing than the broadcast did. But I just don’t know how you can have him as a top-five pick.

Grade: Late second / Early third round