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Jaylen Waddle enters the 2023 fantasy football season in one of the most interesting situations of any stud wide receiver. Despite not being the top passing target on his own team, he still ranks among the best wide receivers in just about all fantasy rankings. This comes as a result of his volume in a high-powered offense and his incredible chemistry with his quarterback.
His scenario within his own offense relative to his fantasy football value is a rare combination, but he's not the only wide receiver in this situation. While a few others also have stud value without a WR1 label on their own team, Jaylen Waddle carries more upside than all of them.
Jaylen Waddle's 2023 fantasy outlook
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Jaylen Waddle took a step forward during the 2022 NFL season in his second year, building off a strong rookie campaign. While his total receptions dropped from 104 to 75, he more than made up for it by increasing his yards and touchdowns. He caught two additional touchdowns in year two, while his 1,356 receiving yards saw a 351-yard increase.
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In his first year in a new system, after the Miami Dolphins hired Mike McDaniel as their new head coach, Waddle nearly doubled his efficiency per touch, going from 9.8 to 18.1 yards per reception. While this is surely impressive, it's even more encouraging considering he dropped to the WR2 behind Tyreek Hill, whom they traded for last offseason.
The two elite wide receivers have already proven they can coexist in the Dolphins' offensive system, with each of them finishing among the top 12 wide receivers in fantasy football last year. This means they both profile as a WR1 on just about any fantasy roster. Not topping an NFL depth chart is usually a red flag for fantasy wide receivers, but Waddle already proved he can overcome it.
It's reasonable to believe that Jaylen Waddle could take yet another step forward during the 2023 NFL season, as many players often do in year two of a new offensive system.
Is Jaylen Waddle a good pick in fantasy football this year?
Jaylen Waddle has demonstrated that he and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa have elite chemistry. They demonstrated this during each of Waddle's two seasons, but it started way before that.
The two played college football together with the Alabama Crimson Tide. This has become a bit of a growing trend to pair a college quarterback with one of their wide receivers in the NFL, similar to Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. The trend makes sense, as the chemistry between a quarterback and wide receiver is invaluable.
While that has been the case with Waddle so far, he becomes even more valuable because he can also produce without Tagovailoa. Despite his quarterback missing extended time last year with multiple injuries, Waddle still took a step forward and finished as a WR1 in fantasy football.
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The combination of floor against ceiling makes Waddle an extremely attractive target. It's reasonable to believe his output would have been even higher last season with a healthy Tagovailoa.
\If he can do so this year, especially in year two of a new system, Waddle's incredibly high ceiling is justified. The fact that he produced WR1 numbers as the Dolphins' WR2 with a backup quarterback for much of last year demonstrates why his floor is so high.
Where should you draft Jaylen Waddle this year?
Jaylen Waddle currently ranks as the WR11 and 24th overall player in 2023 fantasy football drafts, according to his recent ADP. This means he ranks one spot higher in 2023 than where he finished in total fantasy points for the 2022 NFL season. He has more than enough upside to significantly outperform his current expectations.
His ADP also indicates that Waddle is often selected toward the end of the second round or the beginning of the third round in most fantasy drafts, depending upon the league format and scoring settings. He can most similarly be compared to DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins. They have similar ADPs to Waddle, while also serving as the WR2 on their own rosters.
Waddle has demonstrated higher volume and more upside in his current role than Higgins and Smith, making him a more solid choice in fantasy football drafts. Chris Olave and Calvin Ridley also fall in a similar tier as Waddle, but each is dealing with a new quarterback this year, so their usage has a bit more uncertainty.
All things considered, Waddle makes for an excellent choice at his current ADP. His statistical history suggests he can serve as a WR1 on fantasy rosters but makes for one of the absolute best options for a WR2 to maximize scoring.
