Jaylen Warren or Khalil Herbert Start Em’ Sit Em’: Week 5 Fantasy Football Projection for RBs

Jaylen Warren and Khalil Herbert are each coming off their best fantasy football performance of the 2023 NFL season. Week 4 featured their best finish among fantasy running backs as both set new season-highs in total touches. This suggests that they are rounding into full form ahead of Week 5, making them solid lineup options in fantasy football.

Managers with both running backs on their rosters may debate who makes the better start in their lineups this week. The decision must be made early this week, with Herbert playing on Thursday Night Football. The following breakdown can help make the decision a bit easier.

Is Jaylen Warren a good pick in fantasy football Week 5?

Jaylen Warren

The Pittsburgh Steelers announced before the 2023 NFL season that Jaylen Warren would receive a larger workload in their offensive system this year. While Najee Harris would continue to serve as their starter, he would apparently no longer be their lone workhorse as he has been for the past two years. They have been faithful to their word so far, as Warren continues to play a relevant role.

This makes Warren an interesting fantasy football option this year, especially considering that his touches appear to be steadily increasing. In fact, his total touches have increased in all four of his games this year, beginning Week 1 with just eight touches and concluding in Week 4 with a solid 14 touches. Comparatively, Harris' touches decreased in his last game, dropping from 20 touches the week before down to 16 touches.

The primary way Jaylen Warren has made a significant impact for the Steelers this year, as well as taking away from Harris' usual workload, has been in their passing game. Through four games this year, Warren has dominated the backfield receiving work, recording 18 receptions on 22 targets for 127 yards. Harris has barely been used in this area of their offense this season, recording just four receptions on eight targets for 34 yards.

This is terrible news for Harris' fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season, as his receiving skills and his elite usage made him such an attractive target for fantasy rosters. This alternatively propels Warren onto the fantasy radar, as running backs who contribute receiving stats are always valuable in fantasy football.

Even more encouraging for Jaylen Warren's outlook is that he recorded his best fantasy football performance in Week 4 during his most recent game. He posted a season-high RB18 finish, marking his second top-20 finish. His growing role in the Steelers' offense makes him an attractive fantasy football target, as his value is likely to increase even more as the year goes on.

His next opportunity to keep his momentum moving forward will come in Week 5 in an AFC North division rivalry game against the Baltimore Ravens. The last time Warren faced off against the Ravens, he posted another RB18 finish last year during the 2022 season.

The Ravens allow the 13th most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this year, creating a decent matchup for Warren. If he can again increase his touches this week, as he's done in every game so far this season, he makes for a solid option for fantasy lineups.

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Is Khalil Herbert a good pick in fantasy football Week 5?

Khalil Herbert

While the Chicago Bears entered the 2023 NFL season with an unclear workload distribution among their relatively deep group of running backs, Khalil Herbert appeared to have the most upside this year. He flashed a ton of upside in his few opportunities at extended touches last year, suggesting that with an increased workload, he could potentially have a breakout season this year.

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Herbert spent most of the 2022 season as a backup for David Montgomery, a true workhorse running back. With Montgomery departing for the Detroit Lions during the offseason, Herbert would have the opportunity for the more prominent offensive role his fantasy football managers hoped for. He would presumably be the leading back ahead of veteran D'Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson.

The presumptions ended up being true, as Khalil Herbert was named the Bears' Week 1 starter, while Foreman was surprisingly made a healthy inactive for the game. Despite all of the positive signs for his fantasy football outlook, Herbert ended up turning in three disappointing performances to open the 2023 NFL season.

In his first three games, Herbert averaged ten touches per game and recorded zero touchdowns while failing to finish inside the top 25 fantasy football running backs in PPR leagues. Everything changed in Week 4 when Herbert turned in the breakout performance that his fantasy managers were waiting for, setting season-highs in most categories.

Herbert impressively turned in 122 total yards on 22 touches and scored his first touchdown. This was good enough for a solid RB8 finish in fantasy football and significantly brightened his outlook for the rest of the year. As long as the Bears continue to feature him in their offense, which is entirely reasonable to believe, he could realistically be among the top 20 running backs in fantasy football weekly.

His next chance to turn in another big performance will come in Week 5 against the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football. Their defense ranks right around the league average in defending fantasy running backs, allowing the 18th most fantasy points per game to the position.

Despite the mediocre matchup, Herbert's output is much more dependent upon his volume, but a similar workload to last week's season-high makes him an excellent option for fantasy lineups.

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Managers looking to acquire Warren or Herbert for the rosters should consult the fantasy football trade analyzer first.

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Jaylen Warren vs. Khalil Herbert: Who should I start in Week 5?

Herbert vs. Warren in Week 5

According to the Start/Sit Optimizer, Khalil Herbert makes for a better fantasy football running back option than Jaylen Warren in Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season. The Optimizer carefully considers all the various factors to help make the most informed decision possible for complex lineup dilemmas.

In this case, the tool gives Herbert the edge by the slightest of margins, projecting him to score just 0.1 more fantasy points than Warren in Week 5. This demonstrates that both options are in the same tier of running backs this week, with similar fantasy outcomes expected.

While Warren is understandably projected to post better receiving numbers, Herbert's expected volume and higher touchdown probability ultimately give him a slight edge.