Joe Milton III scouting report: Exploring the Tennessee quarterback's strengths and weaknesses

A four-star recruit for Michigan in 2018, Joe Milton III attempted just 11 passes (117 yards, one TD vs. two INTs) across his first two seasons with the Wolverines before getting his shot as a junior, but he was very underwhelming 80-of-141 for 1,077 passing yards and four TDs and INTs each.

After looking like the new starter at Tennessee, Joe Milton III was benched a couple of games into the 2021 season for Hendon Hooker, who ultimately turned himself into a Heisman candidate.

However, once Hooker went down at the end of last season, Milton got a chance to start two games, across which he went 30-of-49 for 398 yards and four touchdowns with no picks (vs. Vanderbilt and Clemson in the Orange Bowl).

Profile: 6-foot-5, 245 pounds; RS SR.

Breaking down Joe Milton III's scouting report

Physical make-up & arm talent:

• Absolute rocket launcher, who claims to throw the ball well over 80 yards – and he might not be too far off
• If Joe Milton III has a receiver streaking down the sideline and the corner isn’t fully turned to run, that’s an invitation to make him do as the ball is pushed way down the field
• However, I thought in 2023 I saw him deliver balls with a lot more touch than I anticipated
• Some of the deep balls he drops right into the bread-basket over a trailing defender after climbing up into the pocket or pedaling away from pressure are just insane
• The mustard this guy puts on the ball when he’s driving it out the sideline is pretty insane
• Creates the velocity to beat flat defenders flying out towards outside receivers with the throw and in general he’s able to hit closing windows where he’s a beat late
• Even when there’s pressure coming in on him and he has to flick the ball flat-footed, you see him hit a receiver on a go route down the sideline in stride 35-40 yards from the point of release

Processing & decision-making:

• Watching Joe Milton III in 2023 after a full offseason as the starter, what was really encouraging to watch was seeing Milton stay on a line so to speak behind the center when he wasn’t flat-out flushed
• Even after having to actually run up towards the line of scrimmage and having to get away from a throwing posture, he’s now typically getting back to that and is looking for targets down the field
• As soon as the safety steps down at all on double-post concepts, Milton takes that as a green light to let it fly over the top
• There’s some high-end ball-placement with a defender closing in, to beat him with the throw towards the opposite shoulder of his target
• Can teleport the ball to receivers on hot-reads and replace the blitzer against zone coverage
• Showed a willingness to just dump it off to his back underneath if the shot down the field wasn’t quite there
• While the sample size was very limited, Milton led all NCAA quarterbacks with a passer rating of 144.9 in 2022, with an insane 17.8 average depth of target

Playmaking in & out of the pocket:

• Featured what was tied for the fifth-highest PFF passing grade under pressure in 2022 (70.8%), in part because the defense still needs to cover the entire field since he can still attack any area even without space to step up into throws
• Will almost bound up and pull his throwing shoulder in as he evades pressure off the edge
• You see him slide or spin away from a pressure point and at times launch balls with both feet coming off the ground 50-60 yards from that spot
• Because he maintains that throw-ready posture and is ready to launch it at any moment, you see some big openings develop between the linemen that he’d run through late for positive yardage – earned 102 yards on 12 scrambles last season
• Able to zip it to his wideout sitting there off a quick hit as he decides to take off through a lane and sees the corner come off that guy
• When he hits the hole with momentum, you see the ability to get skinny through tight creases and he did run a 4.62 at his pro day, which you saw on an 82-yard TD run against UTSA last season
• Can throw in a little stutter and head-fake inside to freeze the feet of a defender in pursuit and beat him out to the corner

Weaknesses:

• Clearly has all the arm strength in the world, but it needs calibration – throws the ball so hard, that he loses control sometimes and misses lay-ups or makes it tough for his receivers having to dive for passes as the break inside
• Not particularly light on his feet and he’ll stop them at times as he’s scanning the field
• Regularly gets locked in on his primary read in an offense that excels at opening those up and when he didn’t have that luxury due to the departed receiving talent with the Vols in 2023, allowing the pressure around him to close in, since he needed to see his guy actually come open
• If you take out passes behind the line of scrimmage, Milton sits at 2.86 seconds in terms of time-to-throw (which would be up there for highest in the country) and his PFF passing with NO pressure (75.2) ranked 105th out of 165 FBS quarterbacks with 100+ dropbacks in 2023
• Will dismiss the structure of the pocket – particularly with multiple points of pressure – and of running concepts, where he just doesn’t see it or wants to follow his line to find a lane, and he’s not a dynamic make-you-miss type of runner, with just 12 missed tackles forced across 103 career carries

Joe Milton III's 2024 NFL Draft prospect

I’m not going to act like I came up with this all by myself, since I have seen people make that comparison, but when you saw social media posts about how Joe Milton III could be this year’s version of Anthony Richardson, it was more telling on he was falsely perceived by some coming out of Florida more so due to his lack of experience as this “raw physical talent” – that’s very much how I look at Milton.

Yet, he’s already 24 years old and while he’s only started 21 games, he was in college for six years. Whether it’s the ability to choose the right club as a passer, his footwork, the ability to process information and ability to throw windows or his pocket presence, they’re all not particularly close to what you’d need to see from a potential starter at the NFL level.

The arm talent, especially in terms of range and max velocity is clearly there and I do believe he’s shown some improvements, which were numbed a little bit by the decline of the Tennessee offense overall – which clearly weren’t all up to him, with far less wide-open targets to hit. If you throw him out there right now, he’ll lead defenders towards the ball with his eyes over and over again and have a short-lived career in the league, but the tools are worthy of taking a Day 3 flier to see what you can mold him into.

Grade: Late fifth / Early sixth round