Kadarius Toney fantasy outlook: Should you draft Chiefs WR in 2023?

Kadarius Toney will enter the 2023 NFL season with an excellent opportunity to emerge as an elite wide receiver, especially in fantasy football. He currently has the luxury of being listed as the WR1 in one of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL.

Toney has flashed plenty of talent in his career so far and will have a legitimate chance to reach his full potential in an ideal situation.

The biggest issue with Toney so far has been his inability to remain healthy. If he can do so this year, he can realistically take a massive step forward. This gives him a ton of upside in fantasy football.

Kadarius Toney's 2023 Fantasy Outlook

Kadarius Toney

Kadarius Toney was a highly-rated wide receiver prospect following an impressive college football career with the Florida Gators. His speed and explosiveness have always been his biggest weapons. He's shown them in small sample sizes during his NFL when he's been on the field, but injuries have prevented him from doing so consistently.

Following a promising rookie campaign during the 2021 NFL season with the New York Giants, Toney was traded to the Kansas City Chiefs the following year. This potentially serves as a massive boost to his overall fantasy football value. The Giants have been one of the weakest passing teams in the entire NFL over the last few years, while the Chiefs have statistically been the overall best.

Much of this has to do with their head coach and quarterback combination, with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid two of the best of this generation in their respective positions.

Any pass-catcher with the Chiefs holds fantasy value in any given week, but especially for home-run threats like Toney. In seven games with the Chiefs last year, he recorded four finishes of WR35 or better.

Now with a full offseason working with Reid and Mahomes, Toney is in an excellent spot to take the next step forward. He will need to avoid injury to do so, after missing a combined 17 games across his first two years.

Is Kadarius Toney a good pick in Fantasy Football this year?

Kadarius Toney

Kadarius Toney holds more upside and a much higher ceiling than many other similar wide receivers, mostly due to the fact that he's listed as the WR1 for the Kansas City Chiefs. He was also acquired via trade, so the franchise obviously saw something in his skillset that they wanted to utilize. They won two Super Bowl rings in the past four years, so their system works right now.

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Further increasing Toney's fantasy football value ahead of the 2023 NFL season are the additional targets available in their passing game. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman each departed during the free agency period, creating an additional opportunity for Toney to receive a larger role in their scheme.

With the way Patrick Mahomes rattles off passing statistics, this makes Toney an intriguing fantasy pick.

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While not nearly on the same level, Toney should theoretically fill some of the same types of plays that Tyreek Hill did before being traded to the Miami Dolphins. The Chiefs have never quite replaced him, instead using a committee approach to fulfill the massive vacated production.

In an ideal fantasy situation, maybe Toney is the dynamic playmaker to swap in for Hill.

Of course with Kadarius Toney, his fantasy football value depends heavily upon his availability. His extreme injury history gives him a much lower floor, along with a higher ceiling, than many players at a similar ADP.

Where should you draft Kadarius Toney this year?

Kadarius Toney

Kadarius Toney currently ranks as the WR47 and 115th overall player in upcoming 2023 fantasy football drafts, according to his recent ADP. This means he currently profiles as a WR4 on most fantasy rosters, depending on the league format and scoring settings. He is often being selected around the 10th round in many fantasy drafts, making him a late-round target with massive upside.

While Toney's injury history also makes him more of a risk than most players, his ADP eliminates some of the danger associated with it. He's being drafted as more of a speculative depth piece with the hope that he outperforms his projections. As a WR4 on most rosters, an injury is much less catastrophic than when it happens to an early-round selection.

One of the best fantasy draft strategies for the later rounds is to simply target as much upside as possible in depth players. This gives managers the best chance of finding studs in rounds that are meant for fill-in players.

In the case of Kadarius Toney, he holds more upside than almost any other player at his current ADP, making him a solid pick in the second half of fantasy drafts. If he fulfills his best-case scenario this year, he could easily outperform his expectations by a significant margin.