Mapping out the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft:

Texas running back Bijan Robinson

Do the Bills end the Bijan Robinson fall at 27th?

Let me make this clear right away: Texas running back Bijan Robinson, to me, is one of the very few elite prospects at his position, and he may very well be the third name on my big board, behind only Georgia’s Jalen Carter and Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr., if you don’t take positional value into account.

With all the analytics saying you should never draft a running back in the first round, people have kind of gone nuts in this discussion, because while there aren’t many situations where I would advocate paying an RB top-of-the-market money, I look at investing an early pick on the position as more of a valuable short-term investment.

If you draft Bijan on Day One, you have contractual control of a potential All-Pro player for five years, and then you can still franchise-tag him a couple of times if it makes sense. And looking back at the two names who went in this range two years ago (Najee Harris and Travis Etienne), they’re currently 19th and 20th respectively in AAV (average annual value).

So why the hell would the Texas superstar ever fall this far? Well, with how analytics-driven many of these organizations have become, I do tend to knock running backs down a notch or two in my projections, and more importantly I simply can’t find a great landing spot for Robinson, when I put together mock drafts.

Unless the Panthers make a move for Derek Carr or Aaron Rodgers and think Bijan could be that one last piece all the way at No. 9, or Howie Roseman shockingly uses that extra first-rounder because he dreams about what this kid could look like in that offense, there aren’t many spots from that point on that really stand out.

Other than maybe the Lions at 18th, I don’t believe any team in the teens has the luxury of picking a back, in part because Detroit has the sixth pick and could be adding even more draft capital. And as fun as a Lamar Jackson-Bijan backfield might be, they would much rather add receiver help and still very much believe in J.K. Dobbins.

So, really, the only the other team I can see the stop the slide in this range are the Cowboys, considering Tony Pollard’s rookie contract just ran out, and I can easily see Jerry Jones want that kid from nearby.

For the Bills, their divisional-round loss to the Bengals was a harsh reality check that there are still areas they need to upgrade before breaking all the way through. So, getting a complete back like Bijan, who can create offense without Josh Allen having to be Superman, would be more valuable for them than some other teams. It’s not the way they typically operate, but this may be the one move they feel could really take them over the top.