Mid-season NFL awards (2023):

Cincinnati Bengals v San Francisco 49ers

(Non-QB) Offensive Player of the Year:

1. Christian McCaffrey

2. A.J. Brown

3. Tyreek Hill

As always, I treat the OPOY award as “who has been the best/most impactful non-quarterback on the offensive side of the ball”, and we have some of the better candidates I can remember in a while. I do CMC has a little bit of separation however and because he plays on a team without a marquee name at quarterback – although it’s insane how people have gone from treating Brock Purdy like Tom Brady to questioning in the matter of just a couple of weeks – he actually has an outside shot at ultimately being among the MVP finalists. The 49ers have lost some shine after losing three straight following their 5-0 start, but they had the ball with the chance to win in two of those, including what should’ve been a game-winning field goal at Cleveland, and McCaffrey has been the driving force of that offense, which ranks third in both EPA per play (0.139) and success rate (50.7). Individually, only Tyreek Hill is averaging more yards from scrimmage per game (118.0 YPG) despite an average depth of target of 0.7 compared to Cheetah’s 10.2 on a league-leading 97 targets. CMC is tied for number one with 13 total touchdowns, he’s gained more total first downs than anybody (56) he has nearly 100 scrimmage yards more than any other RB despite already having had his bye week, and he is number in rushing yards after contact (2.2 YPA) among guys with 100+ touches. So he’s getting massive volume (NFL-high 21.1 touches per game), playing at least 85% of offensive snaps in every one-score game they’ve played other than when he got hurt against the Browns, yet his efficiency is still up there with the very best. He’s a very decisive decision-maker, hits creases at full speed and runs as hard as anybody, while in the passing game, he changes the complexity of how defenses have to approach the 49ers since they can legitimately flex him out wide and attack matchups that way.

Number two here was extremely tough to decide between and it’s pretty much a tie between these two superstar receivers, but I gave A.J. Brown the slight nod because he’s delivered his best when needed most a little more than Tyreek Hill. The Eagles own the best record in the NFL at 8-1 and I don’t think there’s really a question about who their best player has been. This past Sunday ended Brown’s insane streak of six straight games with more than 125 receiving yards, yet he still delivered five first downs and the touchdown that put his team up 28-17 against the Cowboys. Once again, he ranks behind only Cheetah with 1005 receiving yards and 46 first downs on five fewer targets (92) and as part of an offense that averages 1.6 yards fewer per play than the Dolphins. While quarterback Jalen Hurts remains a nightmare for defenses to deal with as a scrambler and he’s shown incredible toughness this season, his efficiency has certainly declined from a year ago. Despite that, Brown ranks in yards per route run (3.2 YRR) and is only one off the top mark in catches of 20+ yards (18). Jalen relies heavily on his number one target, as Brown has the highest share of the team’s air yardage (48.6%), leads the league with a 50%(!) target rate against true man-coverage and has accounted for 41.9% of their conversions through the air on third downs. Whether it’s snatching the ball away from defenders draped all over him at the catch point or shrugging off would-be-tacklers once the ball is in his hands, A.J. has been an absolute beast. He has hauled in 63.2% of his contested targets and among the 15 receivers with 50+ catches, he’s averaging nearly a full yard more above expectation after the catch (+2.1 YAC), according to Next Gen Stats.

Last but definitely not least here is Tyreek Hill, who does certainly have a case to be made for being the favorite right now. As I mentioned with Tua already, the Dolphins' offense is number one across all the major categories, with 45 yards more per game (435.2 YPG), 0.8 yards more per play (8.1) and 3.7 points more per game (31.7 PPG) than the next-closest team. And as well as Tua has run the show, Tyreek is the straw that stirs the drink. Not only does he lead the league in yards (1076) and touchdowns (eight) through the air, but even though he’s tied for the most targets (97), he’s also incredibly efficient in regard to when he’s out in the pattern – he averages nearly a full yard more per route run than any other pass-catcher this season (4.30) and the mark that lead the league last season – also set by Hill. With the way Mike McDaniel allows him to get running starts and off motion and work out stacks, he puts defenses in a bind constantly, even though he regularly ends up running off coverage and helping create green grass for his teammates. Yet, if defenses just isolate him one time on the backside, he’ll run by corners in just a couple of steps, to punish single-high looks. Among the 15 receivers with 50+ catches so far, Tyreek ranks second in yards per target (11.1 YPT) and number one with 6.1 yards after the catch on average. Last season, we saw the Dolphins rely on hitting windows they created with their route spacing, but there wasn’t a ton of YAC. They got back to hitting Cheetah on the run and he’s killing angles as well as breaking angles yet again. The two reasons he’s “only” at number three is his contested-catch rate going down to just 25.0% and in Miami’s three losses, opponents were able to hold him in check largely, averaging just under 70 yards and only scoring once total against the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs.

Honorable mentions: Travis Etienne & Stefon Diggs