Mid-season NFL awards (2023):

Cleveland Browns v Indianapolis Colts

Defensive Player of the Year:

1. Myles Garrett

2. Roquan Smith

3. T.J. Watt

This is obviously still my personal opinion and you can feel free to disagree with it, but being able to put the exact same names here at numbers one and two as I had in my full-season predictions, after being told I was completely off, is pretty satisfying. Back then I also realized – inconceivably for me – that the general public doesn’t consider Myles Garrett in that elite tier with names like Micah Parsons (thanks to playing for the biggest brand in the NFL), Nick Bosa or T.J. Watt (due to their well-regarded family name). The crazy part about that is he’s right there with Watt for the best mark ever in sacks per game (0.91). So I’m happy to see him finally get the national recognition he deserves, leading the way for the number one defense in yards per game (by 28 yards – 234.8 YPG), in terms of DVOA (-32.2%), EPA per play (-0.240) and success rate allowed (33.0%). They’ve done so despite facing three of the top-10 offenses by DVOA and success rate. DC Jim Schwartz deserves a lot of credit for how he’s deploying the pieces at hand, where it’s really about how tightly they contest receivers on the back end combined with their rush getting home, but Flash Garrett is like the queen on the chess board for them. When he’s lined up on the edge, you have to slide protection that way or provide chip help, which ends up creating one-on-ones for his teammates, yet then he’s an absolute menace standing up over the interior line, where he’s practicing his cross-over before putting blockers into catch-up mode instantly by winning against one half of the man. His combination of power, length, flexibility and fluidity to create favorable angles and finish his rushes is second to none. Myles is just half a sack (9.5) and one QB hit (18) of the top marks in the league, and while he’s currently “only” tied for eighth in total pressures (39), if you go by pressures per pass-rush snap, he actually has the second-highest success rate among guys with 200+ such opportunities (18.0%), despite being double-teamed at the highest rate for anybody at the position (31.0%).

I realize it’s pretty unlikely to see an off-ball linebacker win this award with the gaudy numbers pass-rushers put up in today’s aerial-oriented style of play, but Roquan Smith is the most integral piece on arguably the best defenses in the NFL right now. So while the standard for the voting process is different than league MVP, I believe it should be treated at least somewhat similarly and we’ve evolved as a football-watching community to a point, where we can look beyond the individual numbers. Through nine games, the 2023 Ravens defense is allowing a touchdown on only 8.7% of opposing drives. Since 2000 (as far back as TruMediaSports has data), only one defense has allowed opponents to score touchdowns at a lower rate of their drives (8.2%) – the 2000 Ravens. And guess who won Defensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl MVP that season? – Their incredible middle linebacker Ray Lewis. In his second season back in Baltimore, DC Mike Macdonald has turned himself into truly one of the elite play-callers on that side of the ball, in terms of taking away the staples of opposing offenses and then all the different looks he’ll throw at opponents on third downs. He has a bunch of unique players at hand, giving new life to the careers of aging veterans and putting lesser-known names on the map. However, for this system to work the way he does, he needs this incredibly smart rangy player in the middle of it all. Smith shows a tremendous understanding of spacing and how opponents want to attack them through the air, regularly occupying a body in protection after being mugged, then flying underneath routes in order to make quarterbacks come off them, before racing up and making a drive-ending stop. While he doesn’t have the same backfield production as running mate Patrick Queen, he allows that guy to have as much success going forward by cleaning up for him, while having broken up five passes and only missed two of 87 attempted tackles (2.2%). Looking through the betting odds, Roquan is currently 101-to-1, which is unfathomable to me, in part because I believe that’s the same number he was listed at pre-season as well.

For number three, I could have gone a lot of different ways, with Micah Parsons, Josh Allen and Maxx Crosby having absolutely dominant stretches of their own in terms of edge defenders, but nobody has made more game-altering plays from that position this year than T.J. Watt. I’ll get to head coach Mike Tomlin’s mind-boggling ability to keep his team in games despite being the inferior team, but a large portion of their lackluster offense is offset by Watt and company wreaking havoc and changing the complexity of contests. And the Steelers' defense overall is a definite plus, but I wouldn’t necessarily call them dominant as a group – certainly not in a tier with the Browns and Ravens for that matter – because on paper their linebackers and cornerbacks (outside of rookie Joey Porter Jr.) are actually below average, which is which they’re allowing the eighth-highest mark in yards per play (5.5 YPP). So them being 5-3 on the season almost makes no sense by the numbers, but then you look at each of those wins – Watt scored the game-winning TD on a scoop-and-score against the Browns, he had five combined sacks and QB hits against the Raiders, whilst being in Jimmy G’s face for a couple of interceptions, he ended the Ravens’ final two drives by jumping on a loose ball and getting the game-sealing sack, he had an amazing interception that completely flipped the momentum on the opening drive of the second half against the Rams, where he perfectly read a pass concept whilst being forced to play off-ball by the opponent’s design, and then he was heating up Titans rookie Will Levis regularly this past Thursday Night. Nobody has filled the stat sheet quite like number 90 for the Steelers. He is tied for second in sacks (9.5) and QB hits (18), along with having forced two and recovered three fumbles (one returned for a touchdown), recording that one pick and six more passes batted down at the line. The only reason I don’t have him even higher – his pressure rate on a per-snap basis isn’t quite up there with the best. However, to be fair, he also hasn’t been set up in many positive game-script situations.

Honorable mentions: Micah Parsons, Dexter Lawrence, Josh Allen, Maxx Crosby, Fred Warner & Danielle Hunter