Mid-season NFL awards (2023):

Buccaneers Texans Football

Offensive Rookie of the Year:

1. C.J. Stroud

2. Puka Nacua

3, Bijan Robinson

While we’ve seen a couple of questionable choices of quarterbacks over skill-position players over the last several years – Kyler Murray over Josh Jacobs in 2019 and Dak Prescott over teammate (and the league’s leading rusher) Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 – this is far less of a QB award than you’d think initially. With that being said, while I’m not giving that position preferential treatment, my choosing Stroud here is a sign of how tremendous he’s been when he’s competing with a guy who currently ranks fourth among all players in receiving yards. We have had bigger “rookie phenoms” in terms of the athletic skill set, but the fact Stroud never actually looked like a guy in his first season at the game’s most difficult position is actually insane. This is obviously coming off a performance against the Buccaneers, in which he threw for a rookie-record 470 yards and five touchdowns, including the game-winner with just six seconds left. However, he’s been playing excellent all season long, ranking third in yards per pass attempt (8.1) and featuring the league’s best touchdown-to-interception ratio (14-to-1). The most impressive statistic to me, however – the Texans currently are the number nine offense in both EPA per play and DVOA. That’s after ranking dead-last and second-to-last in those two categories last year and their running backs this season averaging just 3.1 yards per rush (3.3 as a team – 30th). And Stroud has been doing this behind what we perceived to be a below-average offensive line and throwing to a below-average receiving corp coming into the year. This team has no business sitting at .500 – and that includes a couple of field goals with time running out by their opponents. They played the first month of the season with four of their five slated starters on the O-line out, their top-three pick at corner from last year was placed on IR after week two and this past Sunday, they even needed a backup running back to jump in at kicker. I love the coaching staff in Houston, but a rookie QB isn’t supposed to cover up those kinds of holes as Stroud is doing.

As I mentioned – Puka Nacua currently is fourth league-wide in receiving yards and tied for fourth in catches, behind only Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs respectively. Among those three names, only Brown hasn’t been an All-Pro selection multiple times and all of them made the cut last year. So for this guy to come in as a fifth-rounder and produce at that type of level – being relied upon as the number one target over the first month of the season without Cooper Kupp – is truly remarkable. And his numbers would be even better if he didn’t have Brett Rypien trying to throw the ball to him the last one-and-a-half games. Prior to that, nobody had caught more passes total and only once did Puka have less than 71 receiving yards in a game. When Matt Stafford has been slinging it around for L.A., we’ve seen Nacua and Kupp co-exist, because as I verbatim outlined in my analysis of the Rams draft class, I thought the rookie could turn into head coach Sean McVay’s new version of Robert Woods. He does a lot of the stuff that guy used to for years in that offense, where he’s trusted with crack blocks at the point of attack and is asked to insert against a linebacker in the run game, they put the ball in his hands on crossers and quick screens, but then also we’ve seen him win on the perimeter in isolated situations. His body control to adjust for the ball and then the physicality with the ball in his hands are highly impressive. And for some reason, people have this image in their heads about Puka just being this smart route-runner, who eats on option routes and winning against zone coverage. The fact is, he is tied for third league-wide – with Tyreek freaking Hill – in catches of 20+ yards (16). I’d say early on the target share was a little inflated, but more importantly, only Tyreek has dropped more passes so far than this rookie (seven).

You can certainly argue for a couple of other names here to conclude the list based on the numbers they’ve put up, but I could not punish a fantastic player for his coach not allowing him to shine as much or as bright as he should. Taking positional value out of the equation, Bijan Robinson was my number two overall prospect in this past draft class and I don’t really feel any different at this point about that choice. I put together a super extensive video breakdown of why the Falcons' offense would become one of the toughest units to deal with in 2023 in the offseason, but due to inconsistent quarterback play, poor red-zone play-calling, turnovers and other factors, they simply have been far off my lofty expectations. They rank 22nd or worse in DVOA, EPA per play, success rate and most importantly – points per game (18.4 PPG). My number one advice to head coach Arthur Smith would be to stop this petty back-and-forth with the media and just put the ball in the hands of his incredibly talented rookie running back. Watching Atlanta on a weekly basis, while Tyler Allgeier is a hard-nosed runner who justifies a certain role, every time he touches the ball instead of Bijan, I feel like they’re losing an immense amount of dynamism. As soon as the former Texas superstar gets it, you start holding your breath, because his initial burst, the ability to make defenders miss without any wasted movement, and his skill in the open field are truly special. That is not just a metaphoric feeling – the rookie literally averages 1.8(!) yards more per carry (5.0) and he’s turning his touches into first downs at a 7% higher rate (28.2%). Bijan ranks fourth among all players with 5+ carries per week in rushing yards over expected per attempt (+1.04), according to Next Gen Stats, and he’s averaging 7.9 yards after the catch. I showed a few weeks ago how he was responsible for a couple of interceptions and he’s fumbled twice, but with his natural receiving skills and explosive, he should already be a fantasy and real-life superstar, rather than sitting at one(!) touch inside the opposing five-yard line.

Honorable mentions: De’Von Achane & Sam LaPorta