Mid-season NFL awards (2023):

Minnesota Vikings v Philadelphia Eagles

Defensive Rookie of the Year:

1. Jalen Carter

2. Devon Witherspoon

3. Will Anderson Jr.

This Defensive Rookie of the Year race is a pretty strong one compared to past years, where we’ve had a clear-cut favorite for the majority of the season, and I’m happy to see the three names here being among the top-four of my pre-season predictions. To be fair, all of them were drafted in the top 10 back in late April, but the name at the top was actually fourth for me heading into the year, despite being my highest-ranked prospect coming in. The reason I thought Jalen Carter may not quite be able to take home the honors was that he may just not play enough on this stacked Eagles D-line – and I was right about that part, as he’s played more than 50% of snaps just twice for the year (49% on average, with one game missed), but he’s still found ways to show off his dominance with limited opportunities. Among rookie defenders, Carter is tied for second in sacks (4.0), tackles for loss (five) and QB hits (seven), despite the guys ahead of him in those categories all having played at least 116 additional snaps. Even more impressive, this guy has the highest pass-rush win rate among all interior D-linemen in the entire league at 22%, according to ESPN analytics – just ahead of All-Pros Dexter Lawrence and Aaron Donald. While the competition is certainly stronger than it was even in the SEC with Georgia, he still looks like a rolling ball of butcher knives out there, who has overwhelmed the opposing interior for the most part, until somewhat finding his match this past week in Cowboys second-year guard Tyler Smith. Carter’s ability to knife into the backfield and provide this disruption in the run game has been on display, you rarely see him get moved off the line on combos and what’s crazy about his efficiency rushing the passer is that he’s not even close to having a fully-developed arsenal of moves, relying on the high swim – at times combined with working across the face of guards – and the bull-rush paired with grabbing cloth to free himself late.

While Carter was my top-ranked prospect in this past class, my most fun watch was Devon Witherspoon at Illinois. Seeing this guy click-and-close on routes, be able to get back in phase after losing early on, but then also fly downhill and blow up bigger ball carriers was just awesome – and he’s continued to do so in the NFL. Obviously, his major breakout performance came back in week four on Monday Night against the Giants, when he had a 97-yard pick-six, two sacks, three QB hits and two tackles for loss. Those remain the only numbers he’s logged in those categories, sliding inside to the nickelback spot for that game. Thanks to his physicality and smarts, I really like him in that role, but after heading to Cincinnati the following week, he’s gone back to primarily lining up on the outside. With that being said, just because he doesn’t have the backfield production or intercepted any other passes, doesn’t mean he hasn’t been impactful in any way. Since missing the season-opener for Seattle, he has played every single snap for the Hawks defense, holding opponents to 28 completions for 253 yards and two touchdowns across 51 targets (54.9% completion rate), compared to his one INT and nine more passes broken up. That puts him at a passer rating responsible for of 73.4 and a yards-per-target mark of 5.0 – for reference, Sauce Gardner as an All-Pro corner and DPOY last season was at 5.3 YPT. Even coming off a 37-3 shellacking at the hands of the Ravens, Seattle ranks 11th in dropback EPA and even with Riq Woolen coming off a sensational rookie campaign himself, Witherspoon has been their most reliable player in coverage, although he needs to improve as a tackler (eight misses on 47 attempts). His ability to play inside and out, and make plays in the run-and-pass game could pay major dividends down the road for what had been a very stingy Seattle team prior to this past Sunday.

My prediction for who would win this award before the season started was the first non-quarterback off the board, as they traded up to number three overall, in order to pick quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge defender Will Anderson Jr. back-to-back, as cornerstone pieces of their franchise on both sides of the ball. I’d say so far that has definitely worked out. Some of the casual observers may disagree about Anderson living up to the hype when they see he’s only registered two sacks so far, but he has nine additional hits on opposing quarterbacks, and looking at the ESPN Analytics data, he's actually tied for third among edge defenders with a pass-rush win rate of 27% – behind only Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett. Being able to “finish” his rushes is a major part for young D-linemen to learn, but you definitely feel the impact this guy has made on the Texans' defense, where they ask their edge guys to work from those wide alignments and use tilted angles to collapse the pocket from both sides, forcing quarterbacks to step up, whilst pushing the interior line backward. That’s why Houston is tied for the fourth-fewest sacks across the NFL (17) despite being right outside the top 10 in pressure rate as a team (24.4%). In terms of the run game, he can fly down the line for quick stops when left unblocked, man-handle tight-ends near the point of attack and what I appreciated about him always at Alabama was the combination of leverage and extension he played with to set a physical edge 240-245 pounds. Thanks to improved linebacker play and Anderson’s presence, they’re top-ten in rushing success rate (36.4%) and yards per rush (3.8 YPA), while overall having been more than respectable as a unit, despite not having their OTHER number three overall pick at corner in Derek Stingley from a year ago since week two.

Honorable mentions: Brian Branch, Tuli Tuipulotu & Byron Young