New Orleans Saints Playoff Scenario: Qualifying chances for Derek Carr's team explored

When the New Orleans Saints acquired Derek Carr, they would have hoped for a playoff berth at the minimum when the 2023 regular season ended. They had a veteran quarterback, whereas the other teams were much less settled. The NFC South division had seen the Tampa Bay Buccaneers qualify as the divisional champions last season with a losing 8-9 record and they would have harbored a longing that they could better that.

Coming to the end of the season, though, the situation is much more complicated. Tom Brady has left the building at the Buccaneers and has been replaced by Baker Mayfield, who is on his fourth team in two seasons. After being released by the Cleveland Browns and then bouncing around the Carolina Panthers and the Los Angeles Rams, he was not supposed to be the leading quarterback in the division.

Yet, that is exactly what has happened as they enter Week 17 atop of the NFC South with a 8-7 record. The Atlanta Falcons are second with a 7-8 record, with the generational talent of Bijan Robinson being stymied by quarterback Desmond Ridder and head coach Arthur Smith. With the same record as them are the New Orleans Saints, having limped to that spot on the back of an uneven season by Derek Carr.

The Carolina Panthers, with a 2-13 record, bring up the basement of the division with the worst record in the NFL. Bryce Young, the No. 1 pick of the 2023 NFL draft, has struggled and former head coach Frank Reich has already departed.

All of that leads to a position where, despite a losing record two weeks from the final game of the season, Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints are in with a shout to make it to the playoffs. But they will need some help to do that. Here is how things work out.

New Orleans Saints Playoff Picture: Why Derek Carr and Co. need help from Carolina Panthers

Given they are in the third spot in the NFC South, it is apparent that the New Orleans Saints need to help themselves and wait for some assistance from other teams too. There are two spots available for Derek Carr's team in terms of making it to the Wildcard positions.

The Dallas Cowboys have a 10-5 record and occupy the final Wildcard berth. Even if they win the NFC East, that would mean that the Philadelphia Eagles will fall down to that spot, despite already having 11 wins. With just two weeks to go, the Saints are not catching either of them.

They have a more realistic chance of catching the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks, who currently occupy the final two Wildcard positions. They have an identical 8-7 record and are just one game ahead of the New Orleans Saints.

But for Derek Carr to make it to the playoffs in his first year with New Orleans, winning the weak NFC South remains the best way forward. And to do so, they will need help from the Carolina Panthers to defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the final game of the season.

New Orleans Saints playoff chances entering Week 17

Derek Carr will face Baker Mayfield as the New Orleans Saints take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season. With the latter leading the NFC South, a win for the former will leave both teams tied with an 8-8 record.

That will make it all to play for in the push for the playoffs in Week 18. They will need the Carolina Panthers to defeat the Buccaneers, while also winning their final game against the Atlanta Falcons to top their division.

Thankfully, we have the help of the Sportskeeda NFL Playoff Predictor to analyze the results.

Hypothetical playoff scenario for the New Orleans Saints in 2023 NFL season

We can see that even if Tampa Bay loses to New Orleans in Week 17 but then defeats the Panthers in Week 18, they will top the NFC South. But if Derek Carr can lead the Saints to win two wins out of two to close the season and Bryce Young bests Baker Mayfield, then it is New Orleans that wins the division. Because the Saints will face the Falcons in the final week, that will also ensure that Atlanta finishes with a losing record and falls outside the playoff spots.

The above scenario assumes that the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, who have picked up some form recently, will win both of their remaining games. If that does not happen, Derek Carr might also have the opportunity to lead them to a Wild Card spot that can be simulated with the help of our playoff predictor.

Explore Playoff Chances for detailed insights on your favorite team's or rival's playoff prospects!