"How is this right?" - Bill Simmons stunned over 49ers' over/under win projection for 2025 NFL season

Following their gut-wrenching defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 58, the San Francisco 49ers expected to embark on another deep playoff run in the 2024 season and end their 30-year wait to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. They retained most of the stars who helped them win the conference in the 2023 season and were confident they'd repeat the feat.

However, injuries to stars like Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk had a devastating effect on their campaign, as they finished 6-11 and missed the playoffs for the first time in four years. Their dismal season and Brock Purdy's impending contract extension prompted them to cut ties with several starters.

However, bookmakers believe the exits won't affect the 49ers and have put their win-loss total at 10.5.

Bill Simmons was astonished that betting sites have set the line for San Francisco's season wins so high. On his podcast, the analyst saw the line and said:

"How is this right? 10.5? What in the hell? What am I missing? I thought this was a blow-it-up rebuilding year for them?"

Simmons checked the odds and realized that not only is the 49ers' win total at a perplexing 10.5, but they are also favored to win the NFC West after finishing in 2024. He believes San Francisco will win no more than seven games and decided to bet the under on their wins total:

"So I have to bet this now. If I was four wins off, even though we don't what's happening in the draft, that has to be an automatic bet for me... I'm stunned."

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49ers' offseason exits: John Lynch explains why the team let stars walk

The 49ers' mass exodus began with Deebo Samuel, who was traded to the Washington Commanders for a fifth-round pick. After free agency commenced, safety Talanoa Hufanga, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, offensive tackle Jaylon Moore, and cornerback Chavarious Ward signed deals elsewhere, ending their stint in San Francisco.

The team also cut defensive end Leonard Floyd and is trying to trade wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Explaining why the team allowed these stars to walk, general manager John Lynch said during a press conference before the NFL Combine:

"You can’t just keep pressing the pedal and I think there’s some good that could come out. We need to get younger, I think we’re the oldest team in football trying to make a run at the deal last year. And I think it’s good to constantly get younger. Our draft class last year was a great move towards that."

The 49ers have 11 picks in the 2025 NFL draft, including seven in the top 150. San Francisco's ability to turn their draft picks into franchise cornerstones is as good as any team in the league, evidenced best by Brock Purdy, who was the last pick in the 2022 NFL draft.

Lynch believes San Francisco can fill the holes on the roster with rookies and continue to compete, and betting sites seemingly believe him.