When Kyle Shanahan drafted Trey Lance, many believed that the San Francisco 49ers were going to at least dive headfirst into the era. Instead, they've only been able to dip a toe.
With Jimmy Garoppolo overperforming and Brock Purdy coming out of nowhere, and injuries cropping up, Lance has been a minute percentage of what was paid for him.
Speaking on "First Take," NFL analyst Marcus Spears went as far as calling the move one of the worst ever. Here's how he put it:
"They got a terrible situation on their hands with this... This may go down as one of the worst trades in the draft in the history of the NFL.
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"[Fortunately,] Kyle Shanahan has done such a phenomenal job of getting this team ready to play and being so creative offensively that it hasn't shown in the win-loss column."
He later went on to explain what the team had given up by taking him:
"You lost a lot by going up and getting Trey Lance... We sat there during the draft and was like, 'Why wouldn't you take Justin Fields?'"
Trey Lance's red flags revisited
The biggest red flag cautioning against drafting Trey Lance was his background.
While the vast majority of quarterbacks drafted in the first round come from the FBS, Lance comes from the FCS. The FCS is a college level that plays below the FBS, which has teams like the Alabama Crimson Tide, Washington State Cougars, and others.
Former FCS quarterbacks succeeding in the NFL is a rarity, but not completely unprecedented in modern times. Back when the pick was made, Carson Wentz, who also comes from the FCS, was still getting praise around the league.
Wentz played for North Dakota State, which serves as the leading dynasty in the league. In other words, think of them as the "Alabama Crimson Tide," "New England Patriots," or "Kansas City Chiefs" of the league. This is also the same school that Trey Lance came from.
However, as it is now clear in 2023, even the best quarterbacks in the FCS appear to have a limited ceiling. Both Lance and Wentz have injury issues, and both are far from entering the elite conversation.
That said, until he calls it quits himself, the former still technically has a shot over the long haul to get another opportunity and make the doubters rue their words.
Until then, however, conventional opinion will paint an ugly picture for Lance.
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