NFL analyst suggests Russell Wilson’s late-career struggles are a “huge sample size” hurting QB's Hall of Fame case

Russell Wilson was once a lock for Canton. But now, NFL analyst John Middlekauff isn't so sure. On Friday, on his YouTube channel, Middlekauff pointed out that Wilson’s struggles over the past several years aren’t just a slump but a trend.

“It’s getting pretty ugly,” Middlekauff said (TS - 27:07). “When you have like the last six-seven years of your career where you look nothing like you did in the peak of your powers, that's a lot of information. That's a huge sample size. That's a huge thing to ingrain in your memory.”

Wilson’s post-Seattle career has been a rollercoaster. After signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024, he earned the starting job but was sidelined early due to a calf injury.

When he returned, he flashed vintage brilliance, leading Pittsburgh to a 10–3 record and setting team passing records. But a late-season collapse (four straight losses, 14 PPG, under 200 YPG) raised major questions.

In the wild-card game vs. the Ravens, he threw for 270 yards and two TDs, but the Steelers fell short. Despite the late struggles, Wilson made his tenth Pro Bowl, proving he still has some juice left.

Now, he’s on a one-year deal with the New York Giants.

Russell Wilson bets on Big Apple revival with $21M Giants pact

Russell Wilson is taking his talents to New York. The veteran QB inked a one-year deal with the Giants, closing the door on his Pittsburgh stint and setting the stage for a high-stakes season in the Big Apple.

The deal: A base value of $10.5 million, with incentives pushing it to $21 million. Wilson secured an $8 million signing bonus, a $2 million base salary and a $500,000 workout bonus. But the real money lies in performance-based incentives.

Per Spotrac, if Wilson stays on-field, he cashes in $500,000 for 65% of snaps, $1M for 75% and $1.5M for 85%. Hitting key marks like a 96.0 passer rating, 64% completion rate, 20+ TDs or 2,500 yards with an 88.0 rating each trigger another $500,000. Bigger milestones, 30 TDs or 3,500 yards, unlock an extra $250,000 each.

Postseason play’s got even more cash. A playoff berth earns him up to $1.5M, while each postseason win nets up to $500,000 if he plays 55% of snaps.