NFL Week 11: Betting odds, picks, and key stats to know

In the first week of betting picks and predictions for the 2020 NFL season, we were just a half point away from a perfect week. With Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers easily handling the Carolina Panthers and the Arizona Cardinals topping the Buffalo Bills in a shootout, 10 meaningless fourth quarter points pushed the Pittsburgh Steelers/Cincinnati Bengals just past the over odds.

Last week:

• Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 45.5 LOSS
• Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals OVER 56 WIN
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 at Carolina Panthers WIN

Season record: 2-1

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3. New Orleans Saints -4.5 vs Atlanta Falcons (Odds: -115)

If Drew Brees was healthy (he left last week's game with cracked ribs), these odds would be nearing double digits. Instead, we have a one possession game and a choice between the disappointing Falcons or Jamies Winston. Coming off a season where he led the entire NFL in passing yards and attempts (and interceptions), I will bet on Winston. New Orleans is 5-0 in their last five games and can surround the former-Buccaneer quarter back with weapons and schemes to top the Falcons by a touchdown or more.

Jameis Winston going through his routine before the game pic.twitter.com/JGC9p6i6Yq

— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) November 15, 2020

Key stat: Saints are 5-0 in their last five games

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2. Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs Denver Broncos (Odds: -104)

Dolphins quarter back Tua Tagovailoa will aim to be the first QB since Ben Roethlistberger to win the first four starts of his NFL career. Matching up against the 3-6 Broncos coming off a 25-point loss seems like a prime opportunity for Tagovailoa to stay perfect.

With a dominant defense and Tagovailoa coming into his own, a 3.5-point line seems too good odds to pass up this week. Miami is 16-5 against the spread in their last 21 games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. With Drew Lock likely injured for Sundays game, the Broncos will need backup Brett Rypien to have a career day to just cover the spread.

Further testing revealed that Broncos’ QB Drew Lock has a “pretty severe strain and bruising” but no fractured ribs, per source. He will be day to day, but it is uncertain if he will be recovered to start Sunday vs. Miami.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 17, 2020

Key stat: Dolphins are 12-6-1 all-time against the Broncos

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1. Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings UNDER 48 (Odds: -110)

Despite the Cowboys "starting" quarterback, Andy Dalton, returning from the COVID-19 list to play in Sunday's matchup against the Vikings, Jerry Jones' squad will still struggle to score. The total has gone under in four of Dallas' last five games, and four of their last five road games. Dalton has passed for just one touchdown in 85 attempts this season, and the Vikings run-heavy offense will keep the clock moving in a surely low-scoring affair.

Key stat: The total has gone under in four of Dallas' last five games

Cowboys EVP Stephen Jones: Andy Dalton to resume starting role when clearedhttps://t.co/du1fyOq24A pic.twitter.com/q9SpoZgUza

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) November 9, 2020