"There might be more risk than conventional wisdom believes"- ESPN analyst warns NFL teams on drafting Abdul Carter at the top

As the 2025 NFL draft approaches, Penn State’s edge rusher Abdul Carter has emerged as a top prospect. However, an ESPN analyst has issued a word of caution, suggesting that selecting Carter early in the draft may carry more risk than some anticipate.

For context, Carter’s collegiate journey began as an off-ball linebackera role that influenced his statistical output in his initial seasons at Penn State.. In 2022, he recorded 6.5 sacks and four passes defensed, followed by 4.5 sacks and five passes defensed in 2023. Similar to Travis Hunter’s dual role threat, Carter’s versatility presents a challenge in projecting his potential as a full-time edge rusher at the professional level.

Carter amassed 12 sacks over 16 games in his final college season, a commendable feat but not record-breaking. While these numbers underscore his pass-rushing capabilities, they don’t necessarily set him apart as a generational talent. Schatz summarized it further in his analysis:

"Overall, Carter comes out with an impressive SackSEER projection, but he's not one of the all-time greats. His final college season featured 12 sacks in 16 games, which is good but not historic. I would not be deterred from picking Carter near the top of the draft, but be aware there might be more risk than conventional wisdom believes."

Carter’s choice to skip both the NFL Combine and his pro day workouts has only added to the uncertainty surrounding his draft evaluation. This absence leaves scouts and analysts relying on projections rather than concrete metrics.

Historically, only a few top-five edge rusher picks have skipped the 40-yard dash predraft, including Chase Young, Andre Wadsworth, and Clelin Ferrell. The limited sample size makes it challenging to draw definitive conclusions about Carter’s athleticism and potential impact.

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Browns HC all praises for Abdul Carter

Kevin Stefanksi, head coach of the Cleveland Browns, who hold the No. 2 overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, recently spoke about Carter at the annual league meeting in Florida. He spoke of ongoing conversations with Carter and praised the Penn State star.

In an X(formerly Twitter) clip posted by content creator Austin Abbott on Sunday, Stefanski said:

“We broke the ice, he’s a very impressive young man. I know a lot of people who know him, but a very impressive young man.”

As draft day nears, NFL teams are tasked with conducting thorough evaluations to determine if Carter’s potential justifies a high selection, keeping in mind both his impressive attributes and the factors that introduce uncertainty into his draft profile.