NFL 2018: Fantasy Football: 5 Players That are Currently Being Overvalued

With the Fantasy Football season really hotting up, all players Average Draft Positions (ADP) are constantly fluctuating. With reports coming out about injuries and good/bad performances in preseason games, some players are moving up, whilst others are moving down. Here I take a look at 5 players who's ADP is currently too high for my liking.

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#5 Deshaun Watson

The hype this offseason for Deshaun Watson has been off the charts, since his spectacular introduction into the league. Watson replaced Tom Savage at halftime in week 1 and went on to play 7 games until an ACL tear in practice ruined his season. Now don’t get me wrong, Watson was incredible in those 7 games. He threw 19 TDs, as well as adding a couple on the ground. He had an immediate rapport with his receivers, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller.

Who knows how many TDs and yards he would have thrown for if injury hadn’t struck. The problem for me is where he is being drafted. Watson’s current ADP is 4.04 and the second QB off of the board. THAT IS INSANE! He is going ahead of last years top scoring QB Russell Wilson, as well as the crafty veterans Tom Brady and Drew Brees.

Yes, Watson has huge upside, but if you’re drafting him in the 4th round, you’re drafting him at his ceiling. I’m not calling for Watson to be a failure this year, but I very much doubt he finishes as the second highest scoring QB.

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#4 Derrick Henry

Jacksonville Jaguars v Tennessee Titans

Henry is a beast. There is no doubting that. He’s a huge man who has exceptional speed for his size. This offseason it looked like he would have the chance to step out of Demarco Murray’s shadow and make the RB1 position his own. That was until the Titans signed Dion Lewis for big money. Lewis had a superb second half to last season. He finished as the RB13, as the Patriots made yet another SuperBowl.

Despite the Titans adding Lewis, Henry is still being drafted at the 3.01 position. That is a big investment for a player who may not even be the lead back for his team by the end of the year. Lewis will surely take the bulk of the passing down work, after catching 32 passes in 2017, compared to Henry’s 11.

Lewis also outproduced Henry on the ground last year. You would imagine that Henry will get the first crack at the early down and goal line work, but if he fails to produce good performances early, then keep an eye on Lewis to overtake him on the depth chart. Before Henry truthers jump on my back about hating on him, I’m not knocking Henry as a player.

If they hadn’t had recruited Lewis then Henry would have the potential to be a top 10 back in this league. But Lewis being there really does hamper Henry’s production. With Henry going 3.01 and Lewis going 5.12, I know who I’d rather take.

#3 Josh Gordon

Green Bay Packers v Cleveland Browns

Josh Gordon is an athletic freak, who has shown he can be a top receiver in this league. His current ADP is the 4.11 spot, which for me is a little too high. The problem is that Gordon is not currently practicing with the team. He is staying away from the Browns due to a personal reason. It’s rumored that he doesn’t want to be involved in the Browns ‘Hard Knocks’ tapings and is taking care of his mental state away from the cameras. This is great, as players health has to come first.

It does, however, mean he is missing vital time with the team in camp and preseason matches. He isn’t getting the chance to build that rapport with the new QBs in Cleveland, Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield, whereas Jarvis Landry and Antonio Callaway are profiting from Gordon’s absence. The talk is that Gordon will be back with the Browns by the start of the regular season, but drafting him in the 4th round comes with a huge risk.

He is currently being drafted ahead of safer options such as Landry and Marvin Jones. If he is back and with the team soon then he will start to climb my rankings again. Until then, I see him as too big of a risk in the 4th round.

#2 Jimmy Graham

Arizona Cardinals v Seattle Seahawks

Jimmy Graham hit gold this offseason by signing a 3 year $30 million contract with the Green Bay Packers. Whilst Graham is still a great threat in the end zone, he is nowhere near as effective in other areas of the field.

In 2017, Graham recorded his lowest catch total in a 16 game season since his rookie year. His YPC also dropped dramatically to 9.1 compared to 14.2 in 2017. This shows that Graham isn’t getting downfield much nowadays, and is, therefore, more of a short pass target than in previous years.

He is playing with one of the best QBs of all time in Aaron Rodgers, so he will have some fantasy value as he’s likely to score 10 TDs. The problem I have with him is where he is being drafted. Graham’s current ADP is at 5.03 and the 4th TE off of the board. For me, this is way too high.

I have him ranked below Greg Olsen, Kyle Rudolph and Delanie Walker. I would much rather select a younger, more athletic talent in the 5th, such as Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones or Ronald Jones. Graham will be fantasy relevant this season with the Packers. I just don’t like where he is currently being taken.

#1 Jacksonville D

Wild Card Round - Buffalo Bills v Jacksonville Jaguars

This Jacksonville defense is one of the most talented defenses the league has seen. It is full of young players at the top of their game. Last season they were far and away the highest scoring defense in the league.

They scored 36 more fantasy points than the second placed defense, the Baltimore Ravens. But the hype with this unit has gone a bit too far for me. Yes, I am projecting them to be the top scoring D/ST again, but there is no way I am taking them at their current ADP. They are currently being taken with the 8.09 pick, which is absolute madness.

That’s ahead of players such as Cooper Kupp, Jamison Crowder, Trey Burton and Robert Woods. Taking them this early means you’re missing out on valuable PPR options such a those previously mentioned. DO NOT TAKE A DEFENSE IN THE 8th OR 9th ROUND!