NFL Breakout Candidates 2024: Bengals RB Chase Brown 

With the 2024 NFL season creeping closer, it felt like a good time to look at some breakout candidates, and one such player is Chase Brown of the Cincinnati Bengals. Looking at all the teams across the NFL, very few have been as one-running back-centric as the Bengals over the last few years.

Joe Mixon had logged at least 65% of offensive snaps when available each of the past four seasons and handled 19.87 touches per contest over that stretch. That focus was justified thanks to the stability he provided, as someone who consistently provided good yardage on the ground and caught pretty much everything thrown his way.

Following his debut season in the pros, Mixon gained over 1,250 scrimmage yards and at least eight touchdowns in all but one of the next six years (2020, when he was limited to six games). However, after more defined role players were his competition in the past, Cincinnati started wanting to feature a more dynamic young player in Chase Brown down the stretch of this past season.

They selected him in the fifth round of the 2023 draft because of the steady improvement he showed with the Fighting Illini. This led to a senior season in which he racked up nearly 1,900 yards and 13 touchdowns from scrimmage. Until Week 12 of his rookie season, the former Illinois standout had only touched the ball a total of five times and didn’t even see the field at all in five games.

Over the final six weeks, he rushed for 173 yards on 42 attempts and caught 11 passes for another 149 yards, reaching the end-zone once. So while he wasn’t featured very heavily, he did have two runs and receptions of 20+ yards each (nine combined of 10+ yards).

Brown made the list of best plays of the week a couple of times with those explosive touches. Now, after Cincinnati sent Mixon to Houston for a late-round pick, Brown’s name comes up every once in a while as someone who could be a factor in one of the better offenses across the league.

Why Bengals RB Chase Brown could break out in the 2024 NFL season

While Joe Mixon has been one of the more efficient movers and producers of positive yardage as a runner, Chase Brown added some more dynamism in terms of start-stop burst that we hadn’t seen recently.

If he spied an opportunity to bounce a run outside, he could press vertically for that extra split-second. He gets his hips pointed toward the sideline in one thorough motion, and then as a force defender steps down to take away the edge, bends inside of that guy, to stress the opposing unit in multiple directions.

I prefer him in more of a gap-scheme approach, which the Bengals have shifted towards anyway. They started to operate almost exclusively out of the shotgun when Joe Burrow was in the lineup and they needed a run game that would complement that better.

Going laterally deeper in the backfield as much as they did early in Zac Taylor’s tenure as a former Sean McVay disciple wasn’t beneficial for what they wanted to do. Brown to me didn’t execute zone concepts optimally, actually pressing the front-side to set up lanes instead of prematurely turning his shoulders when he decided to take quick cutbacks due to the front he was facing.

Being the one controlling terms with leaning behind or hugging blocks, pacing himself before stepping on the gas, and then letting that 4.43 speed shine when he could hit the hole at full speed, is something that feels more comfortable to him. You see a lot of subtle start-stop movements and slipperiness to navigate those condensed areas, and then when he has to, he’ll churn his legs forward for extra yardage through contact.

Overall, he does need to be quicker to ID penetration and process information, which is why he only averaged more than four yards per carry in one game as a rookie. He’s a bit too boom-or-bust when the front side of plays closes up and he doesn’t stick his foot in the ground to just try to get vertical. When he does put a move on somebody, trying to cut it all the way back leads to negative yardage.

That said, he offers an elite athletic profile and the movement skills to turn himself into one of the better gap-scheme runners, with the burst to get to the corner on the occasional toss as well.

The sample size for Chase Brown once he gets through the line of scrimmage or creates in the open field is fairly limited. The couple of times we saw him break loose, he’d just try to run away from the whole defense and maybe widen or cut inside of somebody trying to angle his way desperately.

From the information we have currently as an NFL player, this guy forced eight missed tackles on 44 attempts, but more impressively, he had an average of 3.27 yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus. With his ability to stutter and re-accelerate, he could become a problem for safeties trying to bring him down as the last line of defense.

Chase Brown packs a nice side hurdle combined with a stiff arm to the crown of the helmet to make a diving tackler whiff. And he runs hard, bouncing or spinning off hits, digging those cleats into the turf, and keeping himself alive on the play.

More impressively in terms of the advanced metrics, Brown forced a missed tackle on half of his 14 catches and the craziest number for him was his yards per route run mark at 4.46 yards. That would be significantly above receiving leader Tyreek Hill, if he actually qualified with the low number of times he was actually involved in the pattern.

Brown is more of a body-catcher, but he also only had one drop for the season. The concern is more so when he’s actually locked into protection. Chase Brown did receive a PFF pass-blocking grade of only 26.7, but that was based on eight such snaps for the year and he didn’t allow any QB pressures on those.

Yet, that area was one of my main negatives on his scouting report coming out of college, as he’d dip his head and allow blitzers to get past almost untouched at times. Meanwhile, veteran Zack Moss has established himself as one of the better pass-protectors at the position heading into his fifth season as a pro.

So growing in that department and giving Cincinnati’s coaches a reason to trust him in keeping their 275-million-dollar quarterback healthy will be key in keeping him on the field for dropback settings.

It has to be pointed out that based on what Moss was able to accomplish in Indianapolis, after an underwhelming start to his career in Buffalo, does present a roadblock for Chase Brown.

A two-year, eight-million-dollar deal for the veteran may not sound significant, but that does tie him for the 20th-highest annual RB salary and looking at the numbers, you understand why he will play a role for this team. Just over 10% of Moss’ carries last season resulted in 10+ yards, he didn’t fumble once and he didn’t allow any sacks or hits on the quarterback (four hurries).

With the Bengals spending another third-round pick on Alabama wide receiver Jermaine Burton, I think we could see them lean more into “big 11 personnel." A situation where they move Ja’Marr Chase into the slot and involve those guys more as blockers near the point of attack (at least adapting some of the insert stuff their head coach’s former boss with the Rams has made increasingly popular).

Depending on if Burrow is willing to go under center more often, I think Moss may be more effective in those looks to facilitate a legit play-action game. However, if Burrow wants to stand back there with extensive vision, having Chase Brown’s explosiveness to shoot through creases that the spread-out defense presents could set up some impressive numbers by the end of the season.