NFL: Deconstructing the NFL Draft

The most important person on every football team is obviously the quarterback. Without a good quarterback, you aren’t going to win a lot of games. So when the NFL Draft comes around, as it will in just a few days time on Thursday 25th April, it’s understandable that a lot of eyes turn to the top quarterback prospect in the class. This year, that’s West Virginia’s Geno Smith.

Geno Smith from West Virginia is the best quarterback in this year’s draft class. But mere days from the start of the draft, his NFL destination is still completely unknown

Most years, it’s very simple to predict where the best quarterback in the class will get drafted. They will go #1 overall. Twelve of the last fifteen number one overall picks have been quarterbacks after all. This year, however, that won’t happen. Kansas City’s trade early in the off season for San Francisco’s Alex Smith means that Chiefs General Manager John Dorsey is going to be looking at everyone but the quarterbacks for his first pick in Kansas City.

It isn’t just Kansas City, but a number of teams at the top of the draft order that have addressed their quarterback needs through free agency this year. Teams have ridden the quarterback carousel in free agency, effectively doing little more than swapping starters and potentially avoiding the need to get their quarterback through this year’s draft. It is therefore unusually difficult to predict where Geno Smith will get drafted on Thursday.

There are still a number of teams that could potentially pick Smith early in the first round, including all of the teams that have appeared to have fixed their quarterback conundrum. However, nothing in any NFL Draft can be said with any degree of conviction. Here is a list of the most probable landing spots for the West Virginia quarterback.

#2 overall pick – Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are a mess at a lot of positions, but perhaps the most concerning of them is quarterback. The current quarterbacks on the roster are Chad Henne and former first round pick Blaine Gabbert, neither of whom are good enough to take this team forward. Last year, neither one of them showed that they had the ability to justify starting for this football team, finishing with the 25th (Gabbert) and the 30th (Henne) best quarterback ratings in the league respectively.

The Jaguars have undergone a regime change this year, bringing in head coach Gus Bradley and general manager David Caldwell, who may want to start afresh at the position and bring in a new face that they can call “their guy”. Because they weren’t around in Jacksonville when first round draft bust Blaine Gabbert was selected in 2011, they are able to dump him and admit that drafting him was a mistake.

However, there are a number of factors that may dissuade the Jags from taking Smith with the second pick. First of all, a lot of people doubt that he is good enough. NFL draft guru Mike Mayock has Smith as the 21st best player in this class, while CBS analyst Rob Rang has listed him 17th. NFL.com’s Charlie Casserly, a draft expert himself, doesn’t have Smith going in the first round at all in his recent mock draft. With such a high pick it is expected that a team will take one of the top few players in the draft regardless of position, and it doesn’t seem like Geno has the value to justify taking him at #2.

Another consideration is Gus Bradley himself. Bradley is a defensive co-ordinator at heart, and coming from Seattle with a dominant defence, he may be more concerned with improving the Jaguars in that department. The Jags defence ranked dead last in sacks last year, and third last in yards given up. Bradley is used to having a great defence, and those numbers won’t be acceptable to him. In light of that, he may be tempted to bring in Oregon pass rusher Dion Jordan (who Mayock ranks as the 5th best player this year) or Florida Defensive Tackle Shariff Floyd (2nd on Mayock’s ranking). Both are safer selections than Geno.

The bottom line is that there is no sure-fire pick that is going to remedy this team right away. Even if Geno Smith turned out to be a star, which is unlikely, the Jaguars will still be a bad team in 2013. Their best bet is to take the best player on their board at #2, whether that’s one of the defensive players or one of the outstanding left tackles Joeckel or Fisher. One thing is for certain, the best player on their board won’t be Geno Smith, and if they reach for him here they will regret it.

#3 overall pick – Oakland Raiders

The Raiders just traded with the Seattle Seahawks to obtain quarterback Matt Flynn, who, despite his lack of starting experience, is considered to be at least a competent quarterback, and has proven himself on the NFL stage. Oakland also has Terrelle Pryor on the books, who plays a very similar style to Geno Smith. The only question for Oakland staff to answer is whether they think Flynn and Pryor are good enough. Frankly, they probably aren’t but given how much Oakland are paying Flynn it suggests that GM Reggie McKenzie and head coach Dennis Allen are committed to him as their starter, at least for this year. Drafting Smith is quite unlikely.

#4 overall pick – Philadelphia Eagles

Current Eagles starter Mike Vick (pictured) is in the final year of his contract, and could be the perfect mentor to young Geno Smith

Another regime change, another potential landing spot for Geno Smith. For what it’s worth, I believe that this is the most likely spot for Smith to get selected. Current Eagles starter Michael Vick is in the final year of his contract, has missed at least 3 games in each of his four seasons in Philadelphia because of injury, and at 32 years of age is starting to get old for a player whose primary weapon is his physical attributes. It looks like new head coach Chip Kelly wants him to be the starter this season, but I suspect that might not be true of future years. Geno plays a similar style to Vick, with an athletic presence to combine decent arm accuracy, and makes sense as Vick’s eventual replacement.

Current Eagles starter Mike Vick (pictured) is in the final year of his contract, and could be the perfect mentor to young Geno SmithObviously it doesn’t seem to make sense to take a back-up quarterback with the 4th overall pick. However, Kelly would be approaching this as an opportunity to get his long term starter without having to start him on day one. Having a year to sit behind Michael Vick and learning Kelly’s extremely fast offensive system would be a serious advantage to a player who will enter the league with his fair share of doubters.

I’m not suggesting this is a sure thing; there are plenty of ways Philadelphia can go with this pick. However, they actually filled a lot of needs in free agency by strengthening the defensive backs with the signing of Patrick Chung, Kenny Phillips and Cary Williams and taking the pressure off the defensive line and at pass rusher with the acquisitions of Isaac Sopoaga and Connor Barwin. That’s five players that can fit straight in and be starters on the Eagles defence.

Now, if either one of the top offensive tackles are on the board when the Eagles pick at #4, which is unlikely, Kelly may want to ignore Smith and take one. Both of the current starting offensive tackles for the Eagles, Jason Peters and Todd Herremans, missed the end of the 2012 campaign through injury and are coming off surgery. However, if they aren’t there it might be best to pick up Jason Peters replacement in the second round of the draft, possibly Kyle Long who played for Chip Kelly at Oregon and knows his system well. If that is how it plays out, Kelly could well pull the trigger on Geno here.

#6 overall pick- Cleveland Browns

This one feels similar to Jacksonville. It is a new staff in Cleveland inheriting someone else’s mistake at the quarterback position. Although current starter Brandon Weeden is only one year into his NFL career, he has failed to impress pretty much anyone in his short time in the league. If new head coach Rob Chudzinski and new general manager Mike Lombardi want to start again and draft Smith, they don’t have much to stop them. He wasn’t their mistake.

The Browns are less likely than the Jaguars to select Smith though for a number of reasons. First of all, they have a chance to have a special defence this year if they get a great pass rusher or a corner. With the free agency moves they’ve made, the Browns are only one or two pieces away from defensive dominance. Considering that, cornerback Dee Milliner or a pass rusher like Dion Jordan or Barkevious Mingo could be very tempting here.

Another factor is the potential fit for EJ Manuel, the Florida State quarterback, to go to Cleveland in this draft. Manuel himself said that Chudzinski, who was formerly the offensive co-ordinator in Carolina and worked with Cam Newton, saw a lot of Newton in Manuel’s play. While anything said within a month of the NFL Draft should be taken with a pinch of salt, comparing Manuel to Newton can only bode well for the Florida State product.

EJ Manuel (pictured) is an intriguing fit for Cleveland, and may be a better prospect than Geno Smith for Rob Chudzinski’s team

If it is true that Chudzinski likes him, the move would make sense for all parties. Manuel’s stock is on the rise, and a number of analysts including Mike Mayock have ranked him as the second best quarterback in this class. While it would be tough to argue that he holds any value with the #6 overall selection, he would probably be an acceptable value with a pick in the middle of the first round. Combine that with the fact that it is a strong possibility that a number of teams are looking to trade up to the 6th spot to select an offensive tackle or pass rusher ahead of Arizona at the #7 spot, and a realistic scenario starts to form whereby the Browns trade back in the first round and still manage to pick up Manuel. All things considered, it doesn’t look like Geno Smith will end up a Brown.

#7 overall pick – Arizona Cardinals

Three weeks ago Arizona would have been the most likely landing spot for Geno Smith by quite a way. The Cardinals were desperately in need of a change at the quarterback position after a disastrous 2012 campaign that can be blamed in large part on the dire quarterback play. However, head coach Bruce Arians changed all that when he traded with Oakland to obtain the services of Carson Palmer. Arians likes Palmer because he loves a vertical passing offence with a strong-armed gunslinger to run it. Palmer can launch it as well as anyone and should be a perfect fit for that role.

This trade didn’t happen so that Palmer can be a backup. Arians probably won’t even be thinking about Geno Smith anymore, and he will instead use this pick to get one of the quality offensive linemen to improve what was the worst offensive line in football last year.

#8 overall pick – Buffalo Bills

There is a reason why Eskimos use Husky Dogs to pull their sleds and Saharans use Camels. It’s what they’re built for, and it’s the environment they thrive in. Geno Smith is a camel, and the cold, wet and oft snowy plains of Buffalo are no place for a camel.

When you put on Geno Smith’s tape, what you will observe is that Smith played his worst games in cold weather, and Buffalo is a cold weather city. So to get drafted here Smith would both have to fall past Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Cleveland and Arizona, as well as convince Buddy Nix and new Bills head coach Doug Marrone that he can be the man in Buffalo despite his obvious aversion to the cold. Make of that what you will.

As Buffalo players like running back Fred Jackson (#22) know all too well, you have to endure some terrible weather to play for the Bills

Another reason GM Buddy Nix might go a different way with the #8 pick is because he has already got a quarterback. After Bruce Arians released Kevin Kolb in Arizona last week, the Bills swooped in and signed him to a nice deal. However, reports have indicated that Kolb’s deal “screams back-up”, and so in all likelihood Nix will draft a quarterback at some point in this draft. Whether that is Geno Smith at #8 or another quarterback in a later round, nobody seems to know. Ryan Nassib, Matt Barkley and even EJ Manuel may well be the Bills target as they will all likely be available at the top of the second round. That might be beneficial for Buffalo, allowing them to take a pass rusher, offensive lineman or wide receiver with the 8th pick.

#9 overall pick and #13 overall pick – New York Jets

When the Jets traded Darrelle Revis to Tampa Bay in exchange for the Buccaneers’ 13th overall pick, the chances that New York would select Geno Smith doubled. There is no arguing that Smith would be an upgrade to the current crop of Mark Sanchez, David Gerrard and Tim Tebow, and it is no secret that quarterback is a high priority for the Jets in this draft.

New general manager John Idzik is in the same position as all the other new general managers in some respects. He might want to start afresh with this roster, clean away past mistakes like Sanchez and Tebow, and draft Smith as Sanchez’s replacement for the long term. He is certainly in a position to make that move if he so chooses, and no-one could blame him for doing it. They could even go somewhere else with the 9th pick if they have another target that they want even more than Geno, and then come back and pick up Smith with the 13th if he’s still there. Stranger things have happened.

What will stop Geno landing in New York is simply that it is hard to see that he will still be around at #9; such is the demand for the quarterback position.

After this, no team is in real need of a quarterback. The Vikings could perhaps be in the conversation, but they look committed to having Christian Ponder at quarterback for the foreseeable future. If Geno Smith falls outside the 13th pick, his best shot of going in the first round is by one of the teams I’ve already mentioned trading back into the end of the first round to get him. If Charlie Casserly is right, he won’t even be getting drafted on Thursday night, and will have to wait for the second round on Friday. With this completely wild and unpredictable draft class, I don’t think anybody would even be surprised if that happened.

Whatever happens, this draft is by far the most exciting and unpredictable draft in recent memory. The Draft begins on Thursday 25 April at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. (4:30 a.m. Indian time). It can be viewed online via NFL.com. Tune in to see it all unfold.