NFL fantasy diamonds: Why Calvin Ridley, Anthony Richardson need a double take in 2023

NFL fantasy diamond running backs: David Montgomery

Average draft position: RB24, 66th overall

My rankings: RB16, 41st overall

Lions running back David Montgomery

I wrote about Detroit's backfield back in the middle of June, when I listed them among the most-improved position groups across the NFL. At first glance, getting well over 2,500 yards and 27 touchdowns from that crew seems like they delivered appropriately. But I thought those numbers were more a reflection of the environment they provided those players and there was some meat left on the bone.

The Lions O-line (when mostly healthy) is tremendous and OC Ben Johnson is one of the most clever run-game designers in football, which is why nearly 62% of the rushing yards by that group came before contact. While Jamaal Williams did have by far his best season as a pro, at least his TD total was certainly inflated, as 13 of his 17 scores came from two yards away or less.

Looking at the underlying metrics, Monty has simply been a better player than Williams or D’Andre Swift, who the Lions happily traded away for a 2025 fourth-round pick from the Eagles.

If you take away his rookie season, he’s averaged 4.7 yards per touch despite being part of a Bears offense that never finished above 25th in DVOA in any of those three years there. Nearly 52% of his career rushing total has come after contact and he’s quietly gone over 1,000 receiving yards in four years.

This, as somebody who may not have the down-the-field ability that was so appealing with Swift coming out of college, but a consistent generator of positive plays on check-downs, who has only dropped nine of 163 career catchable targets.

What he has above those guys Detroit let move on this offseason is his ability to create individually, thanks to his contact balance and better change-of-direction ability than people give him credit for. His 138 missed tackles forced since 2020 rank sixth behind only Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Taylor. This is very good company, especially considering all of them touched the ball more than Montgomery, playing for better offenses.

I get the concerns about Jahmyr Gibbs, who they drafted out of Alabama 12th overall after trading down. He’ll likely be a big part of the offense with his dynamic skills as a space player and underrated ability to make decisions between the tackles as a runner to contribute through multiple avenues.

However, looking at his final two seasons with Georgia Tech and Alabama respectively, he averaged just over 12 carries per game and only went over 20 twice across those. That’s along with Detroit constantly talking about him as an “offensive weapon” and the ways they could utilize him moved out of the backfield.

So we could see those two guys on the field together quite a bit. And with Gibbs right around 200 pounds, you’d think Monty doesn’t only have the clear path to passing downs snaps when they want to leave their back in protection but also as the primary goal-line option, looking at how they fed Williams down there last season.

While I loved Gibbs at Bama, I would prefer Monty straight up – and you can grab him 2.5 rounds later. I think setting his TD total at ten is fairly conservative, as depending on the format, you get some of those dump-offs on check releases when he’s on as a pass-protector. He’s the more proven rusher, who now gets to run behind the best offensive line of his career.

Even including his rookie season, he’s finished above the RB25 price tag he’s currently at all four years so far being part of one of the worst offenses in the league. Now as a top-six unit in DVOA and EPA per play last season specifically targeted him, paying him $6 million annually over Jamaal Williams who just finished as the RB8 in half-PPR is promising.

It just makes no sense to me, and considering the cost of the other guys in that unit, I’ll happily grab Monty in the sixth or seventh round to have a piece of this Lions attack.

NFL fantasy diamond running backs: Samaje Perine

Average draft position: RB39, 106th overall

My rankings: RB29, 81st overall

Broncos running back Samaje Perine

Samaje Perine was the clear RB2 in Cincinnati last year and is actually moving on to a worse offense if you go by 2022 numbers. But not only should his workload increase, but there’s plenty of reason to believe the arrow is pointing up for his new team.

Perine is quietly entering year seven as a pro and he has only started three games since his rookie season, but he’s been effective with the touches he’s received as a member of the Bengals. He is also coming off a year, where he put up 680 yards and 6 TDs on 133 opportunities.

I’d say he's not as sudden as Joe Mixon is for a bigger back and he doesn’t have great long speed, but he has a legit three-down skill set. Watching the two games he stepped in for Mixon last season, there wasn’t much of a drop-off. Against the Titans (the best run defense at that point) and the Chiefs (in a fairly high-scoring affair) he combined for 48 touches worth 248 yards.

For the full season, 71% of his total came either after contact or after the catch, so his production wasn’t necessarily tied to the offense he was in as much as people might think.

For Perine to be my recommendation may have some people scratching their heads. But as somebody who’s gotten bitten by trying to take advantage of the injury discount J.K. Dobbins has come with recently, I would rather be the one staying away from the guy with a multi-ligament injury in his knee.

Perine should have a substantial role either way and could end up bringing major surplus value. Especially considering Sean Payton called him as soon as free agency started and locked him up for the next two years at 8.5 million dollars, basically telling him he wants him to be the Alvin Kamara of this offense (after he had two backs touch the ball more than 150 times five straight times from 2016 onwards with the Saints).

Really, the Broncos can’t be much worse on that side of the ball than they were last year, whether that’s coaching, quarterback play, or injury luck. Of course, it’s not this simple, because Sean Payton had Drew Brees for almost his entire tenure with the Saints and quality throughout the offense. But just on the surface, only in the final two of his 15 years in New Orleans did his offense finish outside the top 10 in total yards and number one in six of those.

So the caché is certainly there, and while the QB situation is extremely volatile, with Russell Wilson coming off the worst season of his career by far, a lot of the other pieces are in place.

Payton immediately put his stamp on the organization with a couple of new starters on the O-line in Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers. They are getting paid significant money, and both are better as run-blockers, so this gives them a really strong front-five.

They have assembled one of my favorite tight-end rooms across the league, where I can see them legitimately spend expended stretches in 13 personnel, and added a legit deep threat in Marvin Mims out of Oklahoma, who they traded up in the late second round for.

We don’t know exactly what run concepts they’ll lean into, although I’d expect a fairly varied approach, but even last season when it felt like a miracle if they were able to gain a first down through the air, they were at least average with 4.4 yards per rush.

While Javonte Wiliams is certainly capable of taking on a large portion of that workload if healthy, Perine was the third-down back for Cincinnati these last couple of years (seeing 51 targets this past season alone) and I’d think bringing him into the building, this is expected to be a significant part of his role in Denver as well.

Denver’s 319 vacated running back carries from 2022 are the second-most in the NFL and even though Javonte COULD take back the majority of those, I expect this to be much more in the 60-to-40% range.

So if Perine is just Latavius Murray from last year, who played 12 of 13 games in Denver, that would make him RB34, which is higher than where he’s going right now. If Javonte isn’t ready or – god forbid – gets hurt again, you may have a league-winner at your hands.

NFL fantasy diamond running backs: Jerome Ford

Average draft position: RB56, 161st overall

My rankings: RB44, 132nd overall

Browns running back Jerome Ford

Obviously, if you can get Nick Chubb in the mid-to-late first round, that’s an investment I’d be happy to make, because he may be in a position to have his best season yet. With Kareem Hunt gone, we should see Chubb get a higher backfield share, extended goal-line work and potentially even more targets in the pass game.

With that being said, there is now room for a second player to emerge in place of Hunt and I believe Ford could be a much bigger contributor than people acknowledge. Especially considering the Browns also allowed D’Ernest Johnson to walk in free agency, Demetric Felton only received five opportunities over half the season he was active for in 2022 and the only RB they otherwise brought in was John Kelly (who has never been active for more than four games in as many seasons as a pro).

The sample size for Ford on offense is fairly limited, only handling eight carries for 12 yards and not seeing any targets in the passing game as a rookie. However, not only was that second to only Nick Chubb last season at the Browns, but he also handled kick return duties and finished sixth league-wide with an average of 24.1 yards per attempt.

So I wouldn’t say that the coaching staff didn’t trust him, but rather they had three backs already, who have proven they can produce with full-time workloads.

So what we have to do at this point is look at Ford’s track record in college. A former four-star recruit for Alabama originally, he decided to transfer to Cincinnati due to the loaded backfield he found himself in. It took until his senior year with the Wildcats to step into the starting role, due to having a first-team all-conference back there in front of him as well.

However, when he did finally get his opportunity to shine in 2021, he took full advantage, turning 236 touches into well over 1,500 yards and 20 touchdowns. I loved his no-nonsense type of running style, the ability to squeeze through tight creases, make those subtle adjustments to his path, the burst to get around the corner when defenses didn’t take care of contain responsibilities, the contact balance to bounce off arm-tackle or glance hits and the long speed to finish explosive runs in the end-zone.

The two metrics that really stood out about that senior year were 52 missed tackles forced on 215 carries and in what PFF calls “perfectly-blocked runs," nobody averaged more than his 11.2 yards per. Along with that, he was a much more reliable pass-catcher and pass-protector than the majority of college backs, averaging 10.5 yards per reception.

The Browns O-line has been one of the premiere units in football, in particular when it comes to the run game, for a while now. Over the last three years, they’ve never finished outside the top eight in either rushing yards or yards per rush. Head coach Kevin Stefanski comes from the Gary Kubiak school of outside zone, which is what they heavily concentrated on in Cleveland once he got there in 2020.

However, as he’s grown as a run-game designer and taken advantage of two All-Pro level guards with their blocking skills on the move, they’ve incorporated power and counter a lot more regularly. On top of that, with a longer and heavier center in Ethan Pocic being added to the mix this past offseason and promptly extended, we see them run at defenses a lot more now with inside zone or duo.

Chubb is clearly a master of navigating those tight spaces, processing defensive information and helping his line get the blocking set up. Yet, I believe there’s plenty to like about how Ford projects into that system as well. He may not be as refined conceptually, but his ability to exploit linebackers leveraging themselves the wrong way momentarily by exploding through the hole or slicing underneath a puller is very intriguing to me.

Then there’s the fact that Kareem Hunt was Cleveland’s primary option on third downs. I thought I saw a skill-set that projected very well for that type of role at Cincinnati with Ford and even if the Browns want to continue to increase Chubb’s carry total, I’d think it comes in hand with taking even fewer reps in designated passing situations.

So on top of getting a certain piece of the pie on early downs, he may be on the field for about 20% of offensive snaps via that avenue alone. As I envision how this offense may continue to evolve with Deshaun Watson having a full offseason with the team, I’d think spreading the formation and going back to him being one of the elite QBs out of empty sets in Houston, Ford will probably see more opportunities to catch the ball rather than being locked in protection.

So that alone is easily worth taking him ahead of ADP and if Chubb was to miss an extended stretch finally, you just hit the jackpot.

Honorable mentions: Dameon Pierce (RB22), Roschon Johnson (RB54) & Zach Evans (RB67)