NFL fantasy diamonds: Why Calvin Ridley, Anthony Richardson need a double take in 2023

NFL fantasy diamond defenses: Miami Dolphins

Average draft position: D/ST12, 216th overall

The Dolphins' defense fell off in a big way last season, in part due to missing a reliable number two corner and one of their starting safeties being hurt for half the year.

More importantly, the firing of Brian Flores as the head man under dubious circumstances, left DC, Josh Boyer, by himself and we saw opposing play-callers and quarterbacks dissect that scheme, which became very predictable. They couldn’t counter the answers offenses had found to punish their pressure packages.

After finishing 4th and 3rd respectively the prior two seasons in terms of fantasy points, they were tied for 18th league-wide.

This year, I believe they’ll be a lot more structurally sound under Vic Fangio, one of the main architects of the modern split-safety defenses, but not as easy to decipher as many of the off-springs we’ve seen (who just sit back in zone and allow opponents to pick them apart).

The ability to change the picture post-snap and force quarterbacks to hold onto the ball should allow this pass rush to get home more regularly, now that Bradley Chubb is there for a full offseason.

Jaelan Phillips turned himself into a game-wrecker over the latter parts of 2022 and Christian Wilkins will have opportunities to attack up the field much more regularly. You add David Long Jr. on the second level, who was a key component in Tennessee being the number one defense in success rate and EPA vs. the run last season, despite showing the second-lightest boxes across the league.

Jalen Ramsey over the collection of guys they were trying outside last year would’ve been a massive upgrade, and could have moved into the slot for certain downs and matchups. But now with him probably being out until late November, they did draft Cam Smith out of South Carolina in the second round, who has inside-out versatility himself, and that injury alone has given us a discount.

Miami has dropped two spots in positional rankings since I first collected the data. If they hit the way I think they could, you get Ramsey back for your playoff run in real life and fantasy.

I don’t think Vic ever had the full defensive talent for the Broncos available to him during his time as head coach there, but in his final season as DC in Chicago, they were the number one overall and fantasy defense in the league. So this Miami defense could absolutely be one that is a plus unit for 2023 rather than one that barely gets started in your leagues.

NFL fantasy diamond defenses: Cleveland Browns

Average draft position: D/ST16, 242nd overall)

Similarly to Miami, I believe Cleveland is judged way too much based on what they were in 2022 rather than looking at the depth chart and projecting what they could be this season.

They finished dead-last in rush EPA, outside the top-20 in takeaways and tied for 27th in sacks, despite having arguably the premier pass-rusher in football in Myles Garrett. And yet, they were tied for 18th with the Dolphins for fantasy purposes. So just based on that, all they’d need to do is improve by a couple of spots to live up to their ADP, but I believe they have room to rise a lot higher.

Everything that went wrong with that group last year had to do with the fact they could not win the line of scrimmage and consistently allowed opponents to stay ahead of the chains by running right at them.

They did not have a real nose tackle on the roster. That’s why they made Dalvin Tomlinson their big free agency addition and spent a draft pick just inside the top-100 on Baylor’s massive Siaki Ika to back him up (that’ll allow somebody like JOK, who led the NFL in run stop percentage last season, to run around freely and create negative plays).

Juan Thornhill replaces John Johnson at safety, who is much more of a play-maker to provide turnovers, along with having the range to play single-high when they want to man up with what might be the top trio of corners in the league. And then they addressed that edge position across from Myles Garrett through multiple avenues, signing Obo Okoronkwo as a true speed-ball around the corner, drafting Isaiah McGuire as more of a power-based player in the middle rounds, and then snatching up Za’Darius Smith once he became available.

Hopefully stopping the run at a higher rate will get them to more obvious passing situations, setting the table for their rush to get home and balls being thrown up for grabs.

Depending on the size of your league, this unit may not get drafted and if I end up in a situation where a receiver or back I’m still not sure about leading up to Week 1 is available, I may punt on defense initially and then just pick up these Browns the day of the season-opener.

NFL fantasy diamond defenses: Carolina Panthers

Average draft position: D/ST22, 276th overall)

Another one to pay attention to in deeper leagues. They’ve been a much better unit than the final rankings or general consensus would suggest. The offense has just been so bad that the dam broke at some point and NFL coaches started figuring out ways to defeat the scheme and pressure packages Phil Snow tried to apply.

The 17 takeaways and 35 sacks last season put them at 27th and tied for 25th across the league respectively, which are the two main ways to add points after you take off whatever, in accordance with how many points they allowed. However, even then, they were the number nine defense in fantasy, tied with what was perceived as one of the elite units in the Jets, for the entirety of last season.

Personnel-wise they’re bringing back pretty much every meaningful contributor, with emerging young players at all three levels, including Jaycee Horn looking like a shutdown-type of corner shockingly quickly after tearing his achilles early on as a rookie.

They also added Shy Tuttle from their division rivals in the Saints to firm up the interior D-line and added one of the most underrated safeties in the league in Vonn Bell, who was a super versatile piece in the Bengals’ success the last couple of years.

More importantly, they bring in one of the bright young defensive minds in the league in Ejiro Evero to run the show, who is much closer to the NFL meta in his general approach on the back end but is able to keep opposing teams guessing (with disguising coverage and giving the pass-rush more time to shine).

As the 22nd-ranked defense right now, I’m not advising you to actually waste your final draft pick on this selection, but if you’re desperate for a change at that spot or just need to fill it for a couple of weeks maybe, looking at Carolina facing Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask twice this year and potentially three rookie quarterbacks in the AFC South, they are worth considering.

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