The 2019 NFL season has concluded and free agency is rapidly approaching on March 18th. There is no year in recent memory with a free agent and draft class like we have this offseason. There are multiple big names up for grabs across varied playing positions but let us focus on the play-callers for now. Without further ado, here is your 2020 free-agent quarterback premier!
#1 Dak Prescott
Prescott is hitting the market at just the right time. In 2019, he had his best year with over 4900 passing yards and 30 passing TDs. Prescott and the Cowboys have been in contract discussions since the last offseason and thus far haven't been able to come to terms on a new deal.
Prescott won't be allowed to hit the market and should be slapped with the franchise tag until they can work out a deal. I have his annual value at just over $35 million a year and owner Jerry Jones loves long contracts. I have him signing a 5-year $175 million deal to stay with the Cowboys at some point this offseason.
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#2 Drew Brees
The all-time NFL passing leader is a free agent but is widely expected to sign a new deal with New Orleans before the start of the new league year. Brees did miss some time due to injury early in the year but when he came back he was as good as ever. He missed 5 games but still threw for 27 TDs and only 4 INT. I have his value around the 35 million a year mark like Prescott, so expect him to resign with a 2-year $70 million deal before March 18th.
#3 Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill is an interesting case. The newly crowned NFL Comeback Player of the Year was perhaps the best QB in the NFL over the second half of 2019. In only 12 games, he achieved career-highs in completion percentage and yards per attempt, while having a career-low in interceptions. I have his annual value at around 30 million a year but the Titans may want him to do it again before giving him a lucrative contract. I believe playing on the franchise tag is the most realistic option.
#4 Jameis Winston
How do you throw for over 5000 yards and 30 touchdowns yet not have your organization believe in you? Try throwing 30 interceptions. Winston has perhaps the highest ceiling of any quarterback on this list yet he could absolutely sink an organization with his turnover woes. At 26, the likelihood he cleans up his game to the point where he becomes an elite QB is low, but you can win with him if he gets a bit better. I have his value at around $30 million a year though I can't imagine the Bucs signing him to a long term deal. Expect him to play on the tag.
#5 Tom Brady
Brady has been in a sharp decline for around three seasons now. It's not all on him though. In that time he's gone from throwing to Rob Gronkowski and Brandon Cooks to Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett. If he is to return to the Patriots they need to seriously upgrade his weapons.
As of press time, Brady's future is truly up in the air but most sources have said that a return to New England is the most likely outcome. I have his average annual value at around $30 million a year so a two year $60 million contract with New England makes sense. If he leaves in free agency expect him to get much more though, approaching the $35 million a year mark.
#6 Philip Rivers
Rivers is another aging quarterback whose future is up in the air. He recently moved his family and there are conflicting reports about if he even wants to play anymore. It appears like the Chargers could be moving on and they are in a great position to draft his successor whether he returns or not. I have Rivers annual average value at around $27 million though I think if he plays this year he'll get a 2-year $60 million deal. I predict however that he ultimately retires.
#7 Teddy Bridgewater
Bridgewater is a guy who I feel is the overwhelming favorite out of anybody on this list to start for another team next year. He filled in really well last year for an injured Drew Brees and after playing for only $7.25 million last season, he's due for a raise.
I have his annual value at $20 million a year and I think he could be a very good bridge quarterback for a team who may not be able to draft a franchise QB like Carolina. I also have Vegas and New England as options if they move on from their respective quarterbacks. 3 years and $60 million sounds about right for Bridgewater.
#8 Case Keenum
Keenum is entering the phase of his career where he cannot be considered anything more than a bridge or high-end backup option. Keenum played on a bad Redskins team last year and didn't embarrass himself. He would do well to latch onto a team like Chicago or Tampa Bay who need a proven backup with the opportunity to make starts should their starter struggle. He played for $7.5 million last season and I have his annual value at around $5 million a year. Look for him to sign a one year deal.
#9 Marcus Mariota
Mariota's value couldn't be lower as he enters free agency for the first time in his career. He was benched midseason last season and the Titans rallied all the way to the AFC Championship game.
Mariota, like Keenum, would do well to find a situation where the starting quarterback situation isn't exactly secure. Chicago personally sounds like a good fit on paper. I have Mariota at around $5 million and I expect him to sign a one year deal in that range.
#10 Potential Cap Casualties
Because their futures are yet to be determined, I have the potential cuts here. I think Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco are pretty sure bets to be cut. Flacco may have a career-ending neck injury while Dalton could find starting bridge quarterback work, especially to a team that drafts a guy high. Cam Newton and Derek Carr also have very decent chances to be cut/traded. If Newton can stay healthy he could still be a good starting QB for 2-3 years. Carr is probably a bridge QB at this point.
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