NFL: Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts – How the Colts are going to win

Griff Whalen #17 of the Indianapolis Colts celebrates his third quarter touchdown with Da’Rick Rogers #16, Samson Satele #64 and Coby Fleener #80 while playing the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium

Offence

In their last meeting back on December 22^nd, the Kansas City defense did a good job of stopping the run. If you take away the 51 yard touchdown run scored by Donald Brown in the second half, the Chiefs actually all but shut down the Colts running game. They limited Brown to only 28 yards on 9 carries and Trent Richardson to 43 yards on 16 carries for a measly 2.7 yards per carry average.

The Colts, therefore, will know all too well that their run game can be shut down by the Chiefs talented front seven. Now in the first half of the season Indianapolis might still have stubbornly and unwisely used the power run scheme that offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton so badly wanted to build his offense around.

However, in recent weeks Hamilton has had somewhat of a coaching epiphany, realising that his offensive line just is not equipped for that style of play (and incidentally neither is Richardson, his supposedly power running back).

In light of this, that Hamilton is going to put the ball in the hands of his best player, quarterback Andrew Luck. He knows that to win this game he is going to have to trust Luck to throw the ball down the field. So how does he go about doing this?

For a pass heavy game plan, Hamilton is likely going to want to use three wide receiver sets as much as possible. That is going to leave a single running back, a single tight end, a slot receiver and two wide receivers. If recent history is any indication, those players are going to be Donald Brown at running back, Coby Fleener at tight end, Griff Whalen in the slot and TY Hilton and Da’Rick Rogers on the outside.

Now, the Colts have something to deal with this week that they did not have to worry about in their week 15 match-up; outside linebacker Justin Houston is going to return in this game to form a tandem with fellow pass rusher Tamba Hali. When those two were on the field together through the first nine weeks of the season, the Chiefs ranked first in the league in sacks, third downs and points conceded. Since week 9 the two have not shared the field together, and the Chiefs sunk to rankings in the 20s without them.

Now that the NFL’s most dangerous pass rushing duo are back, the Colts are going to give both men serious attention. Their offensive line is one of the worst pass blocking units in the entire NFL, and if Andrew Luck is going to be kept upright in this game then his offensive tackles are going to need help. That means that for a significant percentage of offensive snaps, both the running back and the tight end are going to have to stay in to block or at least chip the pass rushers on their way out into routes. That is going to leave the three wide receivers as Luck’s primary offensive weapons.

When the offence brings three wide receivers onto the field, the Chiefs will almost always move into their nickel package. This means that their most talented cornerback, Brandon Flowers, will move inside to cover the slot receiver. Sean Smith, the number two corner, then matches up on the most dangerous wide receiver on the outside. The third cornerback, rookie Marcus Cooper, then comes in and takes the other outside wide receiver.

CINCINNATI, OH – DECEMBER 08: Colts wide receiver Da’Rick Rogers (in white) exploded onto the scene in December with 107 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Cincinnati Bengals

In this situation, Andrew Luck should have an obvious first read. Sean Smith is a talented cornerback, and should have enough physicality to knock TY Hilton off his routes. Brandon Flowers is a far superior player to Griff Whalen, and should be able to handle him one on one in the slot. Marcus Cooper, however, is the Achilles heel of this defense.

Week after week he has been picked on by quarterbacks looking to expose the best match up on the field. In week 13, Cooper surrendered 4 touchdowns and 174 yards to Eric Decker as Peyton Manning looked his way time and time again. Expect Andrew Luck to do exactly the same thing tonight with Da’Rick Rogers, a receiver who has flashed talent this season with 107 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Cincinnati Bengals.

With this game plan in place, it will be a big game for the rookie wide receiver and the result will be a home field playoff victory for the Indianapolis Colts, and a place in next week’s divisional round.

Defence

Of course, none of this offensive game plan will mean anything if the Colts defense can’t stop Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles. If Charles is allowed to make first downs and keep drives alive for Kansas City’s offence, that is going to keep Andrew Luck on the sideline and tire out a Colts defense that can really get exposed if it falls out of sync.

Charles has been the most important offensive player for the Chiefs this season by some margin. He led the team in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. He tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns this season, finished third in rushing yards, and led all running backs with seven receiving touchdowns and receiving yards. In short, he is the only player on the Kansas City offense that the Indianapolis Colts should be scared of.

In their last encounter, Charles gashed the Colts defense for 107 yards and 8.2 yards per carry early on, before the play calling inexplicably moved away from him and Indianapolis was given a huge let off. Rest assured that offensive coordinator Doug Pederson will not make the same mistake again. He will want to feed Charles the ball often and early to take advantage of his running back’s superior skill.

Jamaal Charles #25 of the Kansas City Chiefs has been one of the most dominant players in the NFL this year, combining for 1,980 all purpose yards and 19 total touchdowns (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

So how do the Colts deal with a threat like Charles?

For the answer to that, we must go all the way back to 2001, and to the first Super Bowl victory in New England Patriots history. The Patriots entered that game with a solid but unspectacular team, and they came up against the St Louis Rams’ “Greatest Show on Turf” which was expected to put points aplenty on the underdog New England defense.

The jewel of that legendary Rams offense was running back Marshall Faulk. As a pass catching rusher, Faulk had run riot in the NFL that year, rushing for 1,382 yards and 12 touchdowns as well as 765 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns on 83 catches. Those numbers are not dissimilar to what Charles put up this season: 1,287 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, with 693 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns on 70 catches.

Faulk, like Charles, was the focal point of his offense, and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick recognised that. Not only did he recognise it, but on that night in Super Bowl XXXVI he created his masterpiece; the “Bulls Eye” game plan.

In the biggest game of his professional career, Belichick drew up a defensive scheme that had never been attempted in an NFL game before, and had his players ignore long standing defensive concepts. The “Bulls Eye” game plan focused on one person; Marshall Faulk.

For four quarters in that game, Belichick had his defense physically abuse Faulk like nothing anybody had ever seen before. Defensive ends would rush down field, completely ignore quarterback Kurt Warner, and smash into Marshall Faulk as hard as he could. Faulk took hits from every defensive player on the field; linemen, linebackers and defensive backs alike. Belichick was determined to stop him, because he knew that if he stopped Faulk, the centre piece of the Rams offense, then he could win the game.

Jamaal Charles works the same way for the Chiefs as Marshall Faulk did for the 2001 Rams. He runs from every formation; he catches screens and quick outs out of the backfield; he can line up as a wide receiver and catch go routes. He can and does do everything for his offence. If Charles is taken out of the play, Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith won’t know what to do. He’ll hesitate, he’ll throw incompletions, he’ll get sacked. The Chiefs won’t be able to put 20 points on the board if the Colts successfully utilise the “Bulls Eye” game plan.

If Indy head coach Chuck Pagano uses both of these game plans and executes them to perfection, the Colts will be moving on to the divisional round next week. If they do not, they won’t. It’s as simple as that.