NFL Mock Draft 2023: First-round picks plus opening selections for Broncos, 49ers and more

#17. Green Bay Packers – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson (via PIT)

Clemson edge defender Myles Murphy

I’m sure a lot of people in Wisconsin would like their team to go with a skill-position player here and it would be pretty funny if they did, with Aaron Rodgers’ gone. Notre Dame tight-end Michael Mayer was certainly a consideration for me here. However, looking at how the organization has approached the draft, I just believe they’ll continue to invest in the trenches (and defensively that’s a more glaring area that could use some fresh blood).

Myles Murphy is the type of explosive, strong athlete they value on the edge, in the mold of another guy they targeted 12th overall in 2019 with Rashan Gary. With that guy coming off a torn ACL and entering his fifth-year option, along with having a potential out in Preston Smith’s contract next year, I think this makes a lot of sense.

Murphy is already an awesome, hyper-active run defender and if he learns how to maximize his power by not allowing tackles to get into his frame, he and Gary could end up being a frightening duo coming off either end of the line.

#18. Detroit Lions – Calijah Kancey, IDL, Pittsburgh

Calijah Kancey #8 of the Pittsburgh Panthers trips up Brennan Armstrong #5 of the Virginia Cavaliers

This is certainly a polarizing name in the draft community, between sticklers for certain benchmarks and those people who solely rely on the film. I understand the size concerns, but considering Lions GM Brad Holmes has seen Aaron Donald emerge as an all-time great defensive lineman, I don't think he can help but fall in love with another twitchy interior player wearing that Pitt uniform (even though he does have shorter arms and Donald wouldn’t be a fair comparison for anybody).

With that being said, Calijah Kancey does play like that bowling ball of butcher knives, constantly creating disruption in the run and pass game. If you allow him to just win the B-gap, he can be a real difference-maker for a Detroit defense that did certainly improve over the second half of last season, but still needs more guys to make big plays.

#19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

Brady Cook #12 of the Missouri Tigers is tackled by Nolan Smith #4 of the Georgia Bulldogs

Entering the post-Tom Brady world, there are a lot of questions around this Bucs team. Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask are currently battling for the starting quarterback job, Devin White recently requested a trade and a bunch of veterans still on the roster who they may be willing to move on from. So I have them selecting just a really good football player at a position they certainly value.

Nolan Smith blew up the combine when he ran a 4.39 at 238 pounds, and I could see him going anywhere from pick eight on really. I don’t believe he’ll ever be a top-tier pass-rusher because he lacks some length and a real power element to utilize the momentum he’s built with the burst off the ball. But he’s a hard-nosed run defender and can be an asset dropping into coverage.

He will be a great leader for an organization that is somewhat in transition. With Shaq Barrett tearing his achilles mid-way through last season, they’d need Smith to emerge as a starter right away.

#20. Seattle Seahawks – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

Jaxon Smith-Njigba #11 of the Ohio State Buckeyes catches a touchdown pass

Unless the Seahawks are hell-bent on taking another corner here – which they have some ammo to move up a few spots, if necessary – this is kind of dream scenario for them. They already have Will Anderson in the bag and now they get the number three receiver they’ve been looking to find alongside D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as the favorite for WR1 after some anonymous reports got people off him for no legitimate reason a couple of months ago. He doesn’t have the long speed to be a consistent threat to the deep levels of the field, but his ability to manipulate defenders as a route-runner, the quickness in his cuts, the way he instantly gets upfield and that extra gear he can access once the ball is in his hands are all special.

In Seattle, he can primarily operate out of the slot and you get some inside-out versatility swapping him and Lockett at times. This could be an explosive offense orchestrated by Geno Smith.

#21. Los Angeles Chargers – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

Jaylin Davies #24 of the UCLA Bruins eludes the tackle of Dalton Kincaid #86 of the Utah Utes

I knew that I was going with offense here. The question was really between three skill-position players – Texas running back Bijan Robinson, Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers and the name I ultimately settled on: Utah tight-end Dalton Kincaid.

What made the difference for me here is putting myself in the mindset of that LA Chargers organization and the thought of having to face Travis Kelce twice a year. I wouldn’t go so far as to compare the two at this stage of course, but Kincaid has a lot of similar qualities (in terms of the loose hips to cleanly get in and out of transitions, the ability to find open space, how there’s no delay becoming a ball-carrier and always seems to get more after the catch than he should because he dips away from contact, along with having the willingness to go through people in his way).

While he may need to add a few pounds, this could be a deluxe version of Dalton Schultz for new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.

#22. Baltimore Ravens – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Zay Flowers #4 of the Boston College Eagles scores a touchdown during the first half of a game against the Duke Blue Devils

This is a connection I’ve made all along and I just mentioned him. Zay Flowers could be exactly what this newly-led Todd Monken passing attack still needs. Of course, the whole Lamar Jackson situation still needs to be figured out, but you add this kid to Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr. and Mark Andrews – time to let it rip, baby!

I really believe Zay is the most complete receiver in this class, not in terms of having great size, but he can play inside and out, he can win on all three levels, he can run by safeties down the field and show great concentration tracking the deep ball. He can also take shallow crossers all the way to the opposite sideline and run away from the pursuit.

He constantly cleared out space by pushing vertically at BC, but he’s also an electric mover with the ball in his hands. I absolutely love the idea of how he can help take this aerial attack to a new level.

#23. Buffalo Bills – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (via MIN)

Bijan Robinson #5 of the Texas Longhorns scores a touchdown in the second quarter against the Alabama Crimson Tide

We have another trade! The third name from that trio I mentioned a minute ago is still available and guess who’s still looking for a true game-changer at the running back position? I have the Buffalo Bills moving up four spots with the Vikings in exchange for their fourth-round pick and taking Bijan Robinson.

They did invest a second-round pick in James Cook last year, but I don’t think that withholds you from getting a true star here. The second-year guy you have there was at his best as a number two at Georgia anyway, where he could maximize those limited touches, while you can be in a lot more 21 “pony” personnel, because either one of your backs is totally comfortable in being split out as a receiver.

Bijan can alter tempo and manipulate second-level defenders with more of a focus on gap-scheme runs in Buffalo, he can create magic when nothing is there and he’s such a natural pass-catcher. Especially with Josh Allen saying a couple of days ago how “he’s getting older” and may need to “adapt his playing style”, this is the time to make a move like this, to take pressure off him as their top ball-carrier and somebody who can make more out of those check-downs than Devin Singletary did.

#24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Branch, SAF, Alabama

Will Swanson #83 of the Kansas State Wildcats is tackled by Brian Branch #14 of the Alabama Crimson Tide

We get to another very popular pick in mock drafts – which has me more and more concerned about how many of these selections will actually materialize – but I think Brian Branch would be a great fit in Jacksonville.

I could see him ultimately slip out of the first round if the NFL largely sees him as a pure nickel, but that’s exactly where the Jags could use the biggest upgrade. Their defense was significantly better when they could put Darious Williams outside and while they have a couple of combo-safeties capable of dropping down into the slot, Branch would give them a lot of flexibility on the back-end.

There’s no wasted movement with the way Branch anticipates and redirects against breaks, he shows plus awareness for route patterns as a zone defender, he’s got great timing and wiggle as a blitzer and he’s an elite tackler (missing only four of 176 career attempts - 2.3%). If they don’t put him on island consistently, where his deep speed is being tested, he should be one heck of an addition to that unit.