NFL power rankings after the first quarter of the 2023 season

Seattle Seahawks v New York Giants

#9. Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

This is another one of those 3-1 teams that started the season with a head-scratcher, losing by three scores to the Rams in the opener. However, they’ve run the table since then, beating the Lions in overtime before taking care of the Panthers and Giants by 10 and 21 respectively.

Geno Smith has continued to look in full control, they’ve been able to withstand the loss of both starting tackles for a stretch now and their run game isn’t as hit-or-miss anymore, as Kenneth Walker ranks top-five in missed tackles forced (???) but also rushing success rate (54.6%).

They massively improved their run defense, even if the competition hasn’t been great in that regard, ranking third in yards allowed per rush (3.2). However, their 11-sack performance in New York overshadows the fact that they had just five coming into that day.

They’ll have to hope this wakes up their pass rush powered by a lot of young guys, but other opponents will have more answers to take advantage of the lesser resources in coverage when they bring extra pressure.

Even with the thrashing of the Giants on Monday night, the Seahawks are second-to-worst in third down rate defensively (52.4%) – they’re just closer to 30 than 32 now – and prior to the Devon Witherspoon pick-six, they had yet to keep an opposing team out of the paint when they were able to get into the red-zone (7-of-8).

They do need to play a cleaner brand of football though, as only the Cardinals have given away more free yardage via penalty (291) so far.

#10. Cleveland Browns (2-2)

Obviously, losing 28-3 at home to the Ravens, when you could’ve had sole possession of the AFC North stinks – and so did giving away that Week 2 game at Pittsburgh to an inferior opponent, because you allowed them to start and end the day with defensive touchdowns.

However, with the landscape of that division outside of Baltimore and the baseline this defense gives them, there’s still plenty of hope for optimism. Even after Lamar Jackson pulled out like four or five Houdini tricks that should make opponents want to quit, Cleveland is number one in EPA per play defensively (-0.279), after finishing each of the prior three weeks with the top mark in that regard league-wide, along easily the lowest success rate from an offensive perspective against them (30.1%).

Nobody has created more tackles for loss (27), pressured the quarterback at a higher rate (27.9%) or held opponents to a lower third-down rate (22.6%). Myles Garrett has been a game-wrecker lining up all over the place, setting the table for the rest of that front, they have the best trio of corners in the league and they’re getting major contributions from guys like Grant Delpit.

On the flipside, they’re tied for only 29th in offensive EPA per play (-0.179), despite being top-five in rushing yards. There’s reason for hope because while Deshaun Watson is inviting too much pressure by holding onto the ball and his accuracy has been shaky, he did look his best when last seen.

But you can’t be that anemic offensively and be tied for the second-most giveaways across the league (ten) if you want to be a true player in the AFC.

#11. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)

This Jaguars team has probably been equally surprising in a positive and negative sense. Coming into the year, as many believed they were set up to be a top-five offense with a defense capable of making plays whilst being in positive game-script situations, in an AFC South they clearly stood above.

Well, not only has the division been a lot better than expected, with all four teams being 2-2 right now, but expectations have been flipped for Jacksonville’s two sides of the ball. The Trevor Lawrence-Calvin Ridley connection got off to a blazing-hot start but has since been much more sporadic, rather than the go-to whenever opponents overplay the “concept side” with Ridley on the backside.

Only Tua has a lower time to throw across the NFL than Trevor (2.44 seconds), he has just seven completions of 20+ yards in Week 1 and while Travis Etienne has been a lot more efficient on a snap-to-snap basis, he has just one carry of 12+ yards since week one himself.

Plus, then they’re 30th in third-down rate (31.4%). As we flip things around, their defense right now is top-seven in EPA per play (-0.100) and success rate against (40.4%), while having taken the ball away nine times.

We need to see more from the rest of that pass rush, but they are third in rushing success rate (31.8%) and Josh Allen has played like a star, outlined prior to his three-sack plus game-sealing strip performance this past Sunday against the Falcons in London.

#12. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)

Is there a team in the NFL that makes you jump out of your chair more often for positive as well as negative reasons than the Chargers? They could easily be 4-0 but also 0-4 right now.

So being .500 probably is appropriate. Justin Herbert is playing out of his mind right now and while the offense without Mike Williams is looking for guys to actually cash them in – preferably first-round pick Quentin Johnston – it’s great to see him lead the NFL in passes attempted of 20+ air yards (23).

Under new OC Kellen Moore, that unit is fifth in offensive EPA per play (0.100) and they’ve only turned the ball over twice. They haven’t been effectively running the ball since a shocking 200-yard performance vs. Miami’s soft box looks, but their pass concepts lend themselves to a lot more yardage created by their pass-catcher, as they’re currently top-ten in YAC/reception (5.0 yards).

Unfortunately, the defense has been an abomination masked a little bit by facing the Raiders with a day-three rookie QB last week, who Khalil Mack sacked six(!) times after producing just three sacks and nine QB hits over the prior 18 games in L.A.

Only the Broncos and Bears have allowed more yards per play than the Bolts (5.9 YPP) and for a defense built on taking explosive plays, they lead the league in that regard with 31 such allowed (20+ yards). That combined with Brandon Staley’s schizophrenic fourth-down tendencies and telling defenders to go down instead of trying to score a touchdown in a one-score game is rough to watch.

#13. Green Bay Packers (2-2)

The Jordan Love hype train certainly took a hit last Thursday night. He already came into the day with what would’ve easily been the highest uncatchable rate of passes last year (31.5%) and because he was pressured on a season-high rate (29.3%), he threw a couple of bad picks (after he had one INT coming in).

Love leading the league in average intended air yards (10.2) doesn’t properly tell the story because it’s a lot of crossers and dump-offs to guys on leak routes along with the designed deep shots off play-action, rather than somebody who just rips throws into tight windows.

With a fully healthy Aaron Jones and Christian Watson, they can be an above-average offense, with how Love has executed the Matt LaFleur offense, along with having added something extra with his legs, as only Josh Dobbs of all people averages more yards per scramble so far (11.0 yards per).

There are things to get excited about for this defense, as they’re right on the fringe of the top 10 in yards per play (5.0) and third-down rate (33.9%). Yet again they struggle to stop the run consistently, with how much DC Joe Barry relies on two-high safety structures, but when they do get opponents into designated passing situations, Rashan Gary and company can apply heat, as they’re ranked third in pressure rate (27.1%).

However, that unit could continue to struggle against more well-balanced offenses.

#14. Los Angeles Rams (2-2)

How well this upstart L.A. team has looked over the first month of the season at least, has been one of the more pleasant surprises so far. They’re not overwhelming in any one area, but they’re just really solid across the board I feel like.

Right now, they’re in the top 10 in offensive (45.1%) and defensive success rate against (41.5%). The Rams so far have just one run of over 20+ yards, but Matt Stafford is tied for second with 18 passes of such yardage.

Sean McVay has really evolved in terms of using motion and stacks/bunches to mess with defensive rules and Matt Stafford has been an ice-cold killer, ripping those intermediate to deep throws all over the field with rushers in his face throughout September.

In terms of their defense, casual NFL fans would’ve maybe been able to name a starter other than Aaron Donald, but several of their young guys have stepped up and they’re playing great team ball. They don’t create negative plays, as they’re tied for a league-low 13 tackles for loss and the fourth-lowest sack total (seven).

However, they have been very good situationally under DC Raheem Morris, as only the Browns have surrendered a lower third-down conversion rate in the league (26.7%) and despite their opponents already starting at the 32.3-yard line on average, they stop those guys just short of midfield based on the yardage they usually surrender per drive (27.3).

#15. Tennessee Titans (2-2)

Seeing Derrick Henry finally wake up this past Sunday against the Bengals was very encouraging, as he easily reached season-highs in rushing yards (122) and per-carry average (5.55). Third-rookie Tyjae Spears has provided a change-of-pace option and someone who they can have on the field at the same time as King Henry.

With that being said, they severely lack dynamism at pass-catcher, with less than 30% of Ryan Tannehill’s attempted passing resulting in a first down, and they only rank 30th in offensive success rate (38.8%).

Tannehill is pushing the ball down the field, as he ranks behind only Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts in terms of the top marks in intended air yards per attempt (9.5 yards), but too many of those leave you scratching your head, reading leverage the wrong way or just putting it up there for grabs, like his completely unnecessary pick up 27-3 on a random second down, right into the hands of an awaiting Bengals safety this past Sunday.

Defensively, they’ve had some issues on the back-end coverage-wise, but yet again they’re an elite run-stopping unit with Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart constantly re-setting the line of scrimmage, allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per carry and being just one off the top mark in tackles for loss (26).

That’s how offenses trying to stay balanced get pushed behind the chains and then you have guys like Denico Autry and Arden Key creating problems rushing from all over the line.

#16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)

Are the Bucs a legit 3-1 team, who will be a real factor in the playoffs? Possibly not. But can they continue to win games against teams outside the top 10 – which the NFC South consists of entirely – and ultimately somehow win that division? Sure.

Their defense is playing out their minds right now, ranking sixth in EPA per play (-0.110). Personnel-wise they look quite similar to their Super Bowl run three years ago, but their veterans have aged very well, Antoine Winfield Jr. – who was a rookie that season – is playing at an All-Pro level right now and they’re getting key contributions from someone like Christian Izien, who’s been the best nickel among rookies so far.

Offensively, they’re still just under three yards per rush and if Mike Evans misses any extended stretch, I’m worried about the weaponry they have, but while Baker Mayfield had a potential pick-six dropped early on Sunday, he once again made a couple of tremendous extension plays for touchdowns, which ended up being the difference in the game.

He’s currently sixth among NFL quarterbacks in EPA per play (0.188). They don’t have a ton of margin for error with how they play, but their defense steals extra possessions (10 takeaways) and keeps opponents out of the end-zone (27.3% red-zone TD rate).