NFL power rankings after the first quarter of the 2023 season

Pittsburgh Steelers v Houston Texans

#17. Houston Texans (2-2)

Let’s just start like this – C.J. Stroud has played like a top 10 NFL quarterback so far. He hasn’t looked like a rookie at all when it comes to problem-solving and how the speed of the game has affected him. He already set the record for most pass attempts to start a career without an interception in Week 3 but is now up to 151 total.

He’s currently 14th in EPA per play among quarterbacks (0.102), he’s tied for fourth with 17 passes of 20+ yards and because of him largely, they’re fourth in third-down conversion rate (48.4%). All that becomes even more impressive, when you consider 80% of their starting O-line has been out basically all season and how little they’ve gotten from the run game.

On that note, the two real issues on offense, they’re dead-last in rushing success rate (30.8%) and ahead of only the Saints in terms of red-zone touchdown rate (35.7%). On the flipside, their defense is tied for a league-low 13 tackles for loss, but even without last year’s No. 3 pick Derek Stingley at corner, there’s a lot to like about what we’ve seen so far.

This year’s No. 3 pick Will Anderson Jr. has looked great, along with the rest of those edge defenders setting a firm point of attack from those wide alignments and walking tackles backward into the quarterback, showing creativity on third downs to keep opponents guessing and all 11 guys rally to the ball with consistency. They simply need to clean up their tackling, as they’ve missed six more attempts (45) than any other team in the league.

#18. New Orleans Saints (2-2)

On one hand, we can say they could easily be 3-1 right now if not for blowing a 17-0 fourth-quarter lead at Green Bay. Yet on the opposite end, we can also say this group won by just a point at home against the Titans in the season-opener, despite three Ryan Tannehill interceptions and a 10-point in their favor, when a strip-sack plus return touchdown was whistled dead, leading to a field goal, before they won by three at the winless Panthers.

Defensively, they’re right at number 10 in EPA per play (-0.050), but we also have to acknowledge that Jordan Love may be the best quarterback they’ve faced through one month. On offense, Tony Jones Jr. leads the team with two touchdowns – half of their total so far. Derek Carr has taken some vertical shots to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, but otherwise, things feel very condensed.

The fact that Alvin Kamara had 13 catches in his return but gained only 33 yards on those – half of what was the previous low for any player in league history with as many receptions – is a pretty telling data point. We’ll have to see how the sprained AC joint affects Carr going forward, but the number of times Olave was on the turf on Sunday as he was trying to adjust to off-target passes was insane.

#19. Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

It’s hard to see the potential this group has every week, and how they end up spoiling it. They have a unicorn tight-end in Kyle Pitts, who can legitimately win one-on-ones on the outside and change how defenses have to orchestrate coverages, but he’s reduced to running off defenders for Jonnu Smith to have space.

They have Drake London, who can consistently win on quick routes or on jump-balls, but somehow that is only taken advantage of in the red zone. And while Bijan Robinson’s usage has been really fun, then they insert Tyler Allgeier in the most unfavorable spots and actively kill drives when he touches the ball.

They’re currently eighth in rush EPA (-0.012) but 32nd in dropback EPA (-0.224) because Desmond Ridder is still late in his processing of information and guys like right tackle Kaleb McGary, who can de-cleat people as a run-blocker gets exposed on true dropbacks.

The defense has certainly made strides, with A.J. Terrell having a bounce-back season to lock up guys on the backside, Jessie Bates has been a difference-maker on the back end for them with his range and football IQ and their front seven is as sound as it’s been in years.

They’re not forcing many negative plays, as they’re 30th in sacks (5) and tied for a league-low 13 tackles for loss, but they’re number one in rush EPA per play defensive right now (-0.240) and have guys who can make plays when opponents have to drop back.

#20. Minnesota Vikings (1-3)

This Vikings offense is more than what fans saw from them last year when Justin Jefferson was the only viable pass-catcher until T.J. Hockenson arrived there and were bottom-eight in rushing success rate (38.1%).

The way they’re able to isolate their receivers down the field is excellent and the reason Kirk Cousins leads the NFL with 19 completions of 20+ yards, while they’re up at fourth in rushing success rate so far this year.

To end the Chargers game on an interception at the goal line and then to finish the first drive up in Carolina by trying to get the ball to the front pylon late and get pick-sixed is pretty wild. Their issue offensively has been turnovers, as they lead the league with 11 such, including an insane seven fumbles lost.

Meanwhile, their defense is as all-or-nothing as it gets. They lead the NFL with a ludicrous 58.2% blitz rate – that’s 13.9% higher than number three on that list. Brian Flores understands the limitations they have in the back seven to hold up in coverage if they don’t force the issue.

Against offenses like the Panthers who just counter this by throwing quick screens, that can work, but if you face receivers like DeVonta Smith, they’ll eventually run free for a couple of long touchdowns.

#21. Indianapolis Colts (2-2)

The refs arguably made a game-deciding no-call in overtime at Baltimore to put them here, but as already mentioned, the entire AFC South is tied at 2-2, and with the way the No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson is playing right now, the Colts haven’t provided him a whole lot of help, as they’re ranked 31st in offensive rush EPA (-0.241), but Richardson leads the league with an 11.9% explosive play rate (12+ yard runs and 20+ yard passes).

Some of the play designs seen from head coach Shane Steichen and the way they’ve taken stuff off the quarterback’s plate mentally early on have been promising, but then we also see him launch the ball accurately 40 yards down the field whilst getting wrapped up by Aaron Donald and take over to lead a 23-nothing comeback, before never getting the ball back in overtime.

His legs and creation skills have also been huge in the red zone, as only the Ravens and Dolphins have converted a higher rate of their trips down there into touchdowns (72.7%). The Colts will hope Juju Brents can live up to expectations because the range and play-making on the second level really pops and they frequently are able to create negative plays, as they’re tied for first with 27 tackles for loss and tied for fourth with 14 sacks on the season.

#22. Washington Commanders (2-3)

The Sam Howell experience has been an absolute rollercoaster. Among NFL starters, this is where he’s ranked in terms of EPA per play on a weekly basis – 26th, 16th, 32nd and 7th - his Week 5 performance would be smack-dead in the middle of the league.

The only high-level defense they’ve faced is the Bills, who treated the quarterback like a human piñata. Before Daniel Jones allowed the Seahawks to sack him 11 times, Sam Howell was seven clear of any other quarterback in the league in that regard (29) and with a week up on the rest of the league, he yet again leads the pack by that amount.

Defensively, their front is capable of putting opponents in the chains, as they were just one off the top mark in tackles for loss (26) and tied for seventh in sacks (13) coming into the week (three sacks and two TFLs vs. Bears).

Unfortunately, their secondary has surrendered too many big plays and they’ve been penalized a league-high 35 times on that side of the ball. Watching your first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes get abused for three-plus hours by A.J. Brown certainly wasn’t great to see.

Overall, thanks to allowing what has largely been an anemic Bears offense to put a 40-burger on them, they’ve now passed the Broncos in terms of the highest rate off opposing drives resulting in points (56.6%).

#23. New York Jets (1-3)

Even though what we saw from Zach Wilson on Sunday night was highly encouraging, the Jets are still dead-last in dropback success rate (35.6) and they’re also only 24th in rushing success rate (37.0%).

Other than Breece Hall’s two runs of over 40 yards and Garrett Wilson’s 68-yard catch-and-run touchdown play, they’ve really struggled to find offense. Where I do see hope is that Zach still has the longest time to throw among NFL starters (3.11 seconds) and connected to that the second-highest pressure rate on dropbacks (34.3%), but we did see him be a lot more successful against the Chiefs – when he legitimately outplayed Patrick Mahomes – by getting the ball out much quicker.

With that being said, their defense hasn’t nearly been as dominant as expected since their 13-10 overtime win in Week 1 against the Bills. What on paper appears like one of the best and deepest pass-rush groups shockingly ranks 29th with a pressure rate (15.5%) and they’ve allowed opponents to convert third downs against them at the fifth-highest rate (46.8%).

If they can keep that group fresh and energized, we saw their potential against KC however and they’ve kept opponents out of the end-zone when they got into the red zone, holding them to just three touchdowns on 12 such possessions (25% success rate is the lowest league-wide).

While the last image we have of the Jets being a flag being thrown for pass interference on Sauce Gardner, the Jets are actually the only team in the league with less than 100 yards surrendered in penalties.

#24. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

Joe Burrow’s pulled hamstring and a new starting safety tandem has meant that the Bengals' defense would be one of just three units across the league to allow 5+ yards per carry (5.1).

We saw that crew hold the Rams to just nine points until the final of their 12 drives on the day and Dax Hill has played well enough to not make the loss of Jessie Bates appear massive. However, because they don’t put opponents behind the sticks on early downs, DC Lou Anarumo can’t get as creative with different pressure looks as we’re accustomed to seeing from them.

They can still be good enough on that side of the ball if they weren’t on the field as much, but the offense has just been so disappointing. The only three teams across the NFL with a worse offensive success rate (39.3%) so far are the Titans, Steelers and Jets, they average a league-worst 4.0 yards per play overall and Joe Burrow currently is also dead-last in yards per pass attempt (4.8).

He can’t step into and drive throws, the protection isn’t good enough to afford him time to execute pure progression reads and after we applauded Zac Taylor and company for the way they re-invented their offense last year, watching him adapt Miami’s “quick-out motion” only for receivers to jog into standing there non-threatening whilst they get a shotgun run stuffed inside, makes me want to throw up.