NFL power rankings after the first quarter of the 2023 season

Pittsburgh Steelers v Houston Texans

#25. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)

If there’s ever been a warning sign about how we should completely ignore what we see in the preseason, it’s the way this Steelers offense has looked like.

Kenny Pickett has reverted to a one-read and bail quarterback with poor pocket presence, Najee Harris easily had his best game on Sunday but he may not crack a 4.8 right now and they refuse to get the more explosive Jaylen Warren involved early.

They have to put their first-round pick Broderick Jones in at left tackle and OC Matt Canada is actively making the job harder on his players, as by far the worst offense on scripted plays, when you look at early-game success rate. Kenny Pickett has been pressured on an insane 34.8% of his dropbacks, which would in a league of itself if not for Zach Wilson joining him in that sphere – and that’s despite 0.14 fewer seconds in terms of time to throw, even if it’s still nearly three seconds on average.

They’re dead-last in offensive EPA per play (-0.214) and have gained a league-low 53 first downs across 230 plays. I mean they’ve only reached the red zone five times so far (fewest in the NFL). The reason they’re 2-2 is they are actually +3 in turnover differential and they’ve scored a couple of defensive touchdowns, which were the difference in Week 2 against the Browns, before facing an even worse team in the Raiders.

They have a couple of stars on defense who can change the momentum of games in T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, but their linebackers yet again are slow to fill/scrape against run concepts and receivers can quickly win against this group of corners.

#26. New England Patriots (1-3)

Things looked pretty good early on when despite a horrible start, their offense had the ball with a chance to beat the reigning NFC champs in the Eagles in the opener. Then they were able to at least slow down the Dolphins in a 24-17 defeat the next week.

However, after the Jets came up just short of a game-winning Hail Mary on a day where their offense could not get anything going, they just suffered the worst loss in Bill Belichick’s coaching career (38-3 at Dallas). Bill O’Brien’s offense, which looked functional early on severely lacks juice and it seems that Mac Jones may be actively rebelling against it yet again, with multiple throws all the way across the field with defenders driving on them.

They’re tied for 29th in offensive EPA per play (-0.179) and have three of the bottom-14 pass-catchers who have been targeted 15+ times in terms of average separation created.

Meanwhile, 19.0 average points allowed is pretty solid, considering who they’ve faced. However, they’ve only taken the ball away twice to give their offense the ball more often and are now dealing with major injuries, as standout rookie corner Christian Gonzalez suffered a torn labrum and their one steady difference-maker up front in Matt Judon a torn pec that might knock them for the rest of the year.

#27. Arizona Cardinals (1-3)

Should Cardinals fans be excited that this team has looked as competitive as it has? They went into the season as the clear favorites in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes and now it appears they’re a notch above the two winless teams left, to where neither they nor the Texans get this past April will be high enough to put them in range for either of the top two quarterbacks.

Their offense ranks behind only the Dolphins’ explosive attack in terms of yards per rush (5.3) because they use more variety in terms of personnel and run concepts, while Josh Dobbs leads the NFL with an average of 13.4 yards on his eight scrambles.

They don’t have a legit number-one option in the pass game, but they’ve got some guys with different skill sets and different areas where they can win. Being top 10 in offensive EPA a month into the season with a quarterback who arrived in Arizona two weeks prior to kickoff seemed impossible initially.

The defense has had guys stand out on all three levels, with names like Dennis Gardeck, Kyzir White and UDFA corner Kei’Trel Clark, and they’ve missed the third-fewest tackles in the league (16).

They are one of only two teams (along with Miami) allowing a success rate above 50% defensively, although that is heavily influenced by the 49ers just putting together one of the most efficient offensive performances (30 first downs on 53 plays) this past Sunday.

Unfortunately, the team has been penalized more often (34) for more yards (303) than any other franchise in the NFL.

#28. Denver Broncos (1-3)

Since Peyton Manning retired in 2016 – and really even during that Super Bowl run – the Broncos may have consistently been held back by bad quarterback play, but the one thing they’ve been able to rely upon for the majority of time has been a solid-to-excellent defense.

Right now, they’re on pace for one of the worst seasons on that side of the ball that we’ve ever seen. Of course, the 70-burger the Dolphins put on them in Week 3 plays a big factor in this, but Denver is in a league of their own right now in terms of EPA per play allowed (0.285).

That’s basically as if Patrick Mahomes had dropped back against them on every single play so far, looking at his career average. Furthermore, even if you took that Week 3 no-show out of the equation, they’d only ascend to 31st in that metric.

The biggest reason for it has been their lackluster pass rush, with a league-worst 10.5% pressure rate, but we also just saw several busts in coverage, allowing Justin Fields to have a career day against them, when some people were ready to convert him to a different position.

After having the worst season of his career last year, Russell Wilson currently ranks fifth among NFL quarterbacks in EPA per play (0.222). That paired with at least an average run game would be enough to be a playoff team if they had their defense from 2022 until the dam broke at least.

#29. Las Vegas Raiders (1-3)

Last year it felt like they were putting the finishing touches on what had been a Wildcard team, but now it appears their biggest addition in Davante Adams went from playing with his best friend in college (Derek Carr) to now feeling completely out of place for a somewhat rebuilding franchise, that doesn’t really acknowledge that and isn’t going anywhere.

The Raiders fittingly are 29th in EPA per play defensively (0.116), with the one-man show Maxx Crosby not being underneath to elevate this pass rush, as only the Bears have a worse pressure rate created (12.5%). As we flip things around, the offensive line has been slightly better than expected, because they rely quite heavily on early-down play-action to help that group out.

Yet, we see Jimmy G’s issues outside the Kyle Shanahan show up, while they don’t have nearly the same kind of infrastructure around him, other than Davante. After Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing last year, the team has rushed for a league-low 261 yards, is tied for the worst mark in yards per carry (3.0), and is at the bottom of the league in rush EPA (-0.257) through the first month.

They’re just not built to be a team to play from behind, which isn’t helped by currently having the worst turnover differential in the NFL (-9), as only the Vikings have given it away more often than them (ten times) while only having taken it away once.

#30. Chicago Bears (1-4)

Looking at teams like the Bengals or Jets, who were expected to be major players in the AFC, they are very disappointed with how things have gone so far, but they at least have injuries to their star quarterbacks to blame for the lack of success.

Even without looking on the field, having to send home a receiver you spent the No. 32 draft pick on, and having to call impromptu press conferences to ensure the media you’re fine, before getting embarrassed on Sunday night by the Chiefs, Chicago is straight-up not having a good time.

Getting back to the actual on-field product – even after facing the Broncos, who currently are dead-last in basically all meaningful defensive metrics and allowed him to have a career day as a passer and just now Washington's defense being incapable of covering D.J. Moore, Justin Fields only ranks 22nd in EPA per play (0.017).

Though he performed well against Denver, two of his offensive teammates failed to execute on key plays, which led to the loss. Maybe even worse, they invested a bunch of money and draft picks into what should be head coach Matt Eberfluse’s forte on defense.

Yet, only the Broncos have allowed a higher yards per play (6.1) and EPA per play mark (0.162) on the defensive side of the ball. They did finally wake up in a highly uncommon fashion against the Commanders, but the first three weeks were abysmal.

The silver linings – things are finally looking up and since they and Carolina are at the bottom of the standings, they’re currently slated to own the top-two draft picks in a pivotal draft next April.

#31. New York Giants (1-3)

When clearly being the worst New York team, despite being the one who still has their 40-million-per-year quarterback healthy, is a rough situation. Although the Giants actually beat the Cardinals in Week 2 (who are three spots ahead of them in these rankings), that took a 20-point comeback and they’ve been non-competitive the rest of the season, losing all three other contests by at least 18 points.

Daniel Jones certainly hasn’t played up to that massive contract they gave him in the offseason – which I and many others considered a mistake at the time – but in no way can we put all of this on him. If you take the quarterback out of the equation – who has contributed 46% of their rushing total – the rest of the team of has averaged just 50.8 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry.

None of their pass-catchers consistently win one-on-one and the offensive line is back to being a collection of speed-bumps without Andrew Thomas at left tackle. DJ has been pressured a league-high 51 times and only Sam Howell has been sacked more often (22), with half of those coming this past Monday night by the Seahawks, who had previously struggled to get home but gobbled up the QB every single time he dropped back it felt like.

Meanwhile, last year’s top-five pick Kayvon Thibodeaux has largely been quiet, if he didn’t face backup tackles, and while DC Wink Martindale has thrown out some extreme game plans, they remain the only team to yet to take the ball away once. On top of all that, they’re dead-last in the HRF stat, starting drives 8.6 yards further back than their opponents on average (24.5- vs. 33.4-yard line). Things have to be looking up, right? Well, how about a little road trip to Miami and then Buffalo next? Ouch.

#32. Carolina Panthers (0-4)

While some people thought the Panthers had a chance to compete for a weak NFC South this season, for realists, all that mattered was for the No. 1 pick to be somebody who at least gives you a shot every year. Well, Bryce Young right now is dead-last in EPA per play among quarterbacks (-0.229) and he has completed just two passes of 20+ yards.

They’re reportedly in the market for a number one receiver, after having to trade away D.J. Moore as part of the package for the top draft pick, which is more than necessary, with how unthreatened defenses seem with the objective of just manning up against that group. The receiver they paired Bryce up with early in the second round, Jonathan Mingo, currently has a league-worst 1.8 yards of separation on average, according to Next Gen Stats, and 33-year-old Adam Thielen is the guy they’re specifically designing plays for.

Simply throwing quick screens when the defense overload runs fronts just isn’t it. Carolina came into the year as a sneaky pick for one of the better defenses in the league, but losing Jaycee Horn and Shaq Thompson to IR has been huge for how that unit is structured.

They have allowed the highest rushing EPA of any team defensively (0.115) and it’s by quite a gap to the Broncos just better than them, who gave up 350 rushing yards in Week 3 to the Dolphins.

The Panthers are one of only three defenses to hold opponents under 30% on third downs (27.7%), but the issue is that they allow them to be way too efficient on early downs, in part due to 39 missed tackles (second-most).