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NFL Quarterback Rankings: Below Average
19. Drew Brees
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It’s funny how a lot people would have probably told me this would still be too high for Brees a couple of weeks ago and I already know somebody will say that this is disrespectful for a quarterback of his caliber.
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Brees still has great command of that Saints offense, his ability to manage time and get his offense in the right spots is off the charts and he will take advantage of defenses messing up, but the arm talent simply isn’t there anymore for me put him in that category with the guys I have ahead of him.
When you look at your standard numbers, the Saints QB seems to be doing pretty well – completes over 70 percent of his passes, passer rating above 100, TD-to-INT ratio of nine to three – but only Kyle Allen averages a lower number of intended air yards (6.1) and Brees has only produced 12 plays of 20+ yards through the air, of which Alvin Kamara has been responsible for half of them. He does not push the ball down the field anymore and Kamara being fourth in the entire league in receptions per game (7.6) tells you a whole lot, whether it’s about the amounts of screens they throw or how often the 41-yard old decides to check it down – even when Sean Payton draws up shot plays off play-action.
Brees has been pressured on a league-low 13.6 percent of his drop-backs and he basically doesn’t offer anything off script (one scramble for one yard).
The Saints are a run-first team with an all-time great play-caller and as long as Brees can manage the game and deliver on third downs – which should only improve with Michael Thomas back (and he has missed dearly) – I expect them to a player in the NFC, but don’t think Brees is among the game’s best anymore.
20. Teddy Bridgewater
It has been a while since Teddy found himself on a list that ranked all starting quarterbacks, due to his injury and sitting behind guys on the bench, but after going 5-0 as a starter with the Saints last season in place of the injured Drew Brees, he got the chance to lead a team again by Carolina.
So far he has looked extremely comfortable in that Joe Brady offense and something I appreciate about his game is how well sees the entire field.
So far Teddy is completing over 70 percent of his passes for the first time in his career and easily throwing for a personal high 279.3 yards per game, with six touchdowns compared to five INTs. He is one of only five quarterbacks on this list, whose passes result in first downs more than 40 percent of the time, and the Panthers only just suffered their first loss since Christian McCaffrey went on IR four weeks ago (now 3-1 since then, after an 0-2 start).
Just like last year, the reason I’m not higher on him is based on what he is asked to do – he is in the bottom-five in both averaged intended air yards and yards to the sticks, while over half his passing yardage has come after the catch.
What I have liked seeing is that Bridgewater used his legs more last week than we have seen since his rookie year, with those 48 yards against the Bears last week making up for almost half his total on the season, and right now he is averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
21. Ryan Fitzpatrick
Since the start of the 2019 season, no quarterback has been more overlooked than this guy.
Fitzpatrick arguably was the best quarterback in the AFC East last year, when Tom Brady and Josh Allen were there. Throughout his career, it has been about really good or really bad Fitzy, but since a tough season-opener against the Patriots – who still have one of the better defenses in the league – he has been on fire for the most part.
The Dolphins just announced that Tua will take over as their starter following their bye week, but right now he would be on pace for career-highs in completion percentage (70.1) and passing touchdowns (ten through six games). And if you throw his 135 rushing yards into the mix, Fitzy has been responsible for 91 combined first downs and he added two TDs on quarterback draws.
He doesn’t have the biggest arm in the world, but he is not afraid to fire the ball all over the field and can have a hot streak like almost nobody else. His biggest issue has always been that he is just too reckless, with seven interceptions this year (third-most in the league), despite not needing to force the issues in a few blowout games.
Still, nobody is more fun to watch than Fitzy, when he running around like a mad man or throwing his body around as a blocker. And Miami scored at least 23 points every week since their opener at New England and in three of their last four games, they have blown out the position. So with how well he and the team had played, that makes me believe this decision to make the switch at the bye week was made much earlier.
And if this was it for Fitzy, I’m glad to have watched him play(!) the game.'
22. Baker Mayfield
When you talk about game-managers in the NFL, one of the first names that comes to my mind is Baker Mayfield. I know a first overall pick being labelled as that may not be satisfying to the organization or the player himself, but that’s the role he should take in order for his team to win.
The Browns are the league’s number one rushing offense under head coach Kevin Stefanski and everything they do comes off that. You can see the difference in the Colts game, when Baker had FOREVER back there off play-action and was often times completely unaccounted for, compared to the few times he simply dropped back.
When you look at the numbers, Mayfield is averaging just 182.5 passing yards per game, which currently is 33rd among qualified players (at least three games), with 10 TDs compared to six INTs. Now, the difference between him and a guy like Drew Brees is that he delivers on those big-time throws, whether it’s hitting Odell Beckham Jr. on double-moves or getting the ball to those deep crossers, they are so successful with, but you don’t feel nearly as good about putting the ball in the hands of the Browns QB when you really need a drive.
The positive sign is that he is cutting down on the turnovers (seven total so far), but he has given it to the opposite team five times in the last two games against top five defenses of the Colts and Steelers. Baker has had more time to throw (3.2 seconds) than other quarterback in the league, yet the Browns as a team somewhat surprisingly have the lowest yards after the catch (350), but a lot of that has to do with the amount of deep crossers and other play-action shots they take.
23. Kirk Cousins
And since we’re in this mold of game-managing type signal-callers from run-heavy teams, let’s talk about Kirk Cousins.
His career has been overshadowed by the stigma of primetime games and the lack of high-end talent, but 2019 was his best year as a pro, thanks to Dalvin Cook carrying the load and him being able to work off it.
While he certainly isn’t the most mobile quarterback or has the strongest arm, Minnesota loves going play-action with all the boots and waggles in Gary Kubiak’s offense. Unfortunately, while the big-play ability is there – Cousins leads the league in average yards (13.1) and air yards per completion (8.2) – he now leads the league with ten interceptions.
Cousins had maybe his worst game as a pro against the Colts, when he completed just 42 percent of his passes with no touchdowns and three picks. If you take that game out of the equation, he is right there with what he has done in his three years with the Vikings – one of those three-INT showings. And if you take away meaningless touchdown passes in a couple of blowout losses, Cousins would have a negative TD-to-INT ratio, but as it stands, 11-to-10 doesn’t look great anyway.
I would argue Kirk has been outplayed in every single game so far and the Vikings’ one win came in the only game he didn’t throw an interception. The reason he isn’t even lower is that he has delivered on plenty of big plays, with 22 completions of 20+ yards – tied for fifth league-wide.
24. Gardner Minshew
We went into this season with the Jaguars being the odds-on favorite to “earn” the number one overall pick in the 2021 draft and the general feeling was they would select one of the big three quarterbacks.
Jacksonville shocked everybody week one, when they upset the Colts, who were almost double-digit favorites, but they have not won another game since then and are looking more like a contender for a top five pick again. Still, their quarterback has played fairly well without a real stinker on the schedule.
Minshew right now is completing seven percent more of his passes (67.5%) compared to last year, with the exact same yards per attempt (7.0), but he won’t reach that 21-to-6 ratio of TDs-to-INTs from a year ago, as he has already thrown five picks and to go along with four fumbles, compared to 11 touchdowns. Undrafted rookie running back James Robinson looked really good through the first five weeks, but unfortunately the defense has been a mess, outside of forcing a couple of turnovers in the season-opener, giving up 30+ points every week since then, and that hasn’t allowed them to stay balanced with their play-calling throughout games.
Up to this point, nobody has thrown the ball on a higher percentage of plays than the Jaguars (67.2%) and Minshew leads the league with 162 completions. However, I think he is still probably going to be replaced if they are on the clock next April and they really like one of those QBs.
25. Nick Foles
Has there ever been a quarterback more inspiring as a backup, but also that disappointing as a starter?
After Mitch Trubisky orchestrated a big comeback against Detroit in the season-opener, the Bears coaches decided to switch to veteran Nick Foles in the second half of their week three game against Atlanta. Foles would throw three touchdowns – and it should have been five – in the fourth quarter and lead them to another comeback, taking over the starting gig permanently.
He hasn’t looked great since, missing a few wide-open receivers and not producing those big plays we expected for the offense to open up once he was inserted. He was horrible through three quarters against the Colts and I still have no idea how they won that TNF game against the Bucs.
Foles has thrown a pick in all four games and he has been held to one passing TD in each of these last three matchups, plus a rushing TD on a sneak from the one last Sunday at Carolina. Only Sam Darnold has a lower yards per attempt than Foles (5.8) and only half of his completions have actually turned into first downs. With all that being said and regardless of how they get there, Foles always seems to come through when the ball is in put in his hands at the end of the game.
He has led game-winning drives in two of their three victories and like he said himself in the post-game interview, it’s better to win ugly than to lose pretty, as the Bears and their QB I’m sure feel highly disrespected despite their 5-1 record.
26. Drew Lock
I predicted the Broncos’ second-year quarterback to be one of my breakout candidates, because of the promising skill-set he displayed over final five weeks of 2019, the weapons they acquired around him in the offseason and the addition of offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur.
However, he has only played nine quarters so far this season, due to a sprained AC joint, and his numbers haven’t been great – completing just 53.2 percent of his passes 425 yards and one touchdowns compared to two interceptions for a quarterback rating outside of the top 32 (66.9).
With that being said, I liked what I saw from him in the season-opener and on his two picks in New England, he wasn’t put in great positions, as Tim Patrick did not look for a back-shoulder throw despite the corner having him stacked and the OC calling four verticals on the very next play, without a check-down option, when the Broncos should have run down the clock.
Lock blows everybody else out of water with an average of 12.9 intended air yards on his passes and throws it 4.4 yards across the sticks, which is 3.6 yards further than the next-closest current starter in Aaron Rodgers. I had to calculate this myself, but according to my numbers, only Denver’s QB3 Jeff Driskel has been blitzed on a higher percentage of drop-backs than Lock (53.2%).
He will have to prove he can find solutions more quickly and we still have to see if that shoulder is totally right. But he has to get some help from the run game, because the Broncos have picked up a league-low 24 first downs on the ground and average only 3.7 yards per carry.
27. Philip Rivers
I was ready to bury Rivers with the bottom-tier guys before he showed me that he can still take over games this past Sunday in a 21-point comeback against the Bengals.
Before that matchup, he stood at four touchdowns compared to five picks, but he really boosted his stats with that 371-yard and three TD performance. He made a great throw to Marcus Johnson that travelled almost 60 yards through the air – which is encouraging – but overall he doesn’t have the arm strength anymore to drive the ball across the field and he is way to careless with putting the ball up for grabs.
I mean watching Rivers almost jump into some throws and jerking the ball out of there is not pretty. And he really doesn’t have any mobility to speak of, in order to avoid the rush. And while he doesn’t have the most dynamic group of pass-catchers, they have been very sure-handed, dropped just three of Rivers’ passes, resulting in a league-low drop percentage of 1.6%.
Added to that, the 17-year veteran has been sacked on just every 40th drop-back and only Drew Brees has been pressured less than Rivers (15.2%).
What he is still great at, it layering passes between zones and playing the ball to where his receivers can win late. Still, to me the Colts have to let the offense run through rookie Jonathan Taylor, who could have a big second half of the season.
I really liked Indy coming into the year and I still think they can win the AFC South, but the quarterback position could cap how far they can go.
28. Jimmy Garoppolo
As part of about a hundred injuries for the 49ers in week two on that criticized MetLife Turf against the Jets, Garoppolo missed a couple of games. And after getting benched for the second half of their week five game against the Dolphins, due to his struggles which in part came due to that banged-up ankle, Jimmy G had a bounce-back performance this past Sunday night versus the Rams, with three touchdowns and no picks.
However, I give the majority of the credit to Kyle Shanahan’s game-plan, that didn’t ask the quarterback to throw the ball beyond the sticks and the “YAC Bros” putting in work with the ball in their hands.
I have yet to be impressed by anything the Niners QB has done and when you break down those numbers, it is stunning. 68.8 percent of Garoppolo’s passing yards have come after the catch and the average of 8.0 yards after catch is 1.5 yards more than it is for any other quarterback in the league.
His accuracy has been spotty at times, he hasn’t delivered on those big-play opportunities his HC has drawn up for him and there have been so many lay-ups for him with guys wide open in flats off play-action or running away from defenders on screen passes, where the yardage still goes on Garoppolo’s account.
He has a matchup against one of the elite secondaries of the Patriots up next, before he should be able to feast on Seattle’s 32nd-ranked pass defense next week. So we should see both sides of the pendulum.
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