NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2021

NFL teams to watch out for in 2021: Atlanta Falcons

3. Atlanta Falcons

Given how much the Falcons have been discussed as a dark horse pretty much ever since the 28-3 fiasco in the Super Bowl, few realize that this team has finished with a negative record each of the last three years.

They gave up their best player in franchise history when they traded away Julio Jones and let their solid group of safeties walk this offseason. However, they do still have a quarterback who ranks at least in the middle of the pack and the defense showed some signs over the second half of last season, while the play-calling should see a big bump, with Arthur Smith coming over from Tennessee and bringing Dean Pees along as defensive coordinator.

So while it would certainly be a monstrous jump from picking number four overall in late April to winning this division, there are a few things to get excited about with the Atlanta Falcons.

Calvin Ridley: the highest-graded WR in the NFL entering W3 - 90.2 💨 💨 pic.twitter.com/ofZKHzglut

— PFF (@PFF) September 25, 2020

Why things are looking up for the Falcons

As much as anyone can question the vision of this franchise, trading away Julio Jones when all the other moves they made this offseason indicate that they believe they’re looking at themselves as playoff contenders, the offense should be tougher to deal with as Arthur Smith brings a commitment to the run game.

In Mike Davis, Smith has someone who can reliably produce and give this team an attitude, unlike the group that was in Atlanta this past season. The group of pass-catchers can be a nightmare to deal with off play-action with Calvin Ridley streaking open down the post.

Or they can break back to the corner off with Kyle Pitts running away from players in the box on drag or seam routes and a couple of young speed guys to at least bind deep coverage.

Defensively, Dean Pees has done some big things and we can expect this to be a much more diverse unit, going away from Dan Quinn’s cover-three based, Seattle-style principles, to being more complex with pressure packages and pairing it up with what they do on the back-end.

This could end up being the youngest secondary in the league, but Pees is a great teacher, especially when it comes to identifying keys and understanding how to work in concert with the rush.

If the #Patriots want a centerfielder at the safety position, UCF's Richie Grant might be the best in this class. Ballhawk. Range, reads the QB's eyes, and high-points. pic.twitter.com/d1EC5B1AKP

— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) April 5, 2021

The cons in the Falcons unit

Let’s not get this wrong here – the reigning Super Bowl champs are in this division and they are still the favorites, having retained all 24 starters, if you include kicker and punter.

The Panthers have also done some good things in terms of rebuilding the offensive line and bringing Sam Darnold for a second-round pick, who still has a ton of talent if he can just get that tendency of always having to force the issue with the Jets out of his system. The D-line goes about eight guys deep.

The Saints didn’t lose too many pieces outside of the quarterback position, where Drew Brees was hanging on by a thread, and might have a new starter at all three levels from their draft class.

This is why the Atlanta Falcons arent higher, but they have a good enough roster, improved coaching and some young players coming in who will add some new energy to shock some people and turn several of the tight losses from a year ago into wins.

Of their 12 defeats in 2020, eight of them came by one possession and in five of those, the opposing team only took the lead on their final offensive drive. The Falcons certainly have a chance to turn things around fairly quickly, especially if the Bucs were to suffer a couple of key injuries.

Chance: 10-15 percent