Predicting the top three candidates for NFL MVP in 2022

With the 2022 NFL season finally about to kick off, it's time to analyze which top players will perform and which will disappoint. The most prestigious individual award for players is the NFL MVP. This is awarded to the best performing player from the campaign. The award has mainly been given to quarterbacks in recent years, with the last non-QB to win it being running back Adrian Peterson in 2012.

The NFL MVP has been won by Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers for the last two consecutive seasons. In the 2020 campaign, he threw for 4,229 yards, 48 touchdowns and five interceptions. In the following season, he threw for 4,115 yards, 37 touchdowns and only four interceptions.

It is likely that a quarterback will win the NFL MVP in the upcoming campaign. Here are my top three candidates to take home MVP honors this upcoming season:

#1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen

I’m going chalk here. Once you scroll down further to my playoff predictions and see the Buffalo Bills stand atop the AFC with their 13-4 record, it becomes fairly easy to extrapolate where the credit may go. Josh Allen is the quarterback and best player on the best team in the AFC, which will be a dog-fight.

The Bills now have more weapons around him, with Gabriel Davis bound to explode in year three and rookie James Cook as a dynamic pass-catching back. He should contribute to his quarterback’s production on easier completions. Ken Dorsey being elevated to coordinator will add some wrinkles and we might see Allen being less prominently utilized as part of their run game. Even so, that production should still reflect in the QB’s stat sheet in the form of hitting outlets, so he can bring home the award.

I had Allen as my number one quarterback in the top 100, because I believe his best performances can match anyone else's. As we see him access those more regularly in high-stakes games, he will be one of the key figures in the 2022 season.

#2. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

NFL Regular Season - Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert

Right behind Allen is another uber-talented quarterback from the AFC, whose team I have winning one game less. Justin Herbert has to do it in a better division, where almost all of those games will be on for everybody to see.

Offensively, other than upgrading at right guard with first-round pick Zion Johnson and adding Gerald Everett at tight-end, the Los Angeles Chargers are basically the same unit. However, with all the acquisitions they’ve made on defense, there will be less pressure, or rather more opportunities for Herbert to cash in on.

Herbert obviously has the ability to extend plays and make big throws, but he’s also shown tremendous growth in the NFL. Particularly at deciphering information from the pocket and can be a killer on third/fourth downs. It’s almost crazy to call the Kansas City Chiefs a sleeping dragon (as people seemingly forget how great they still are), but the Chargers can win that beast of a division and open up a lot of eyes.

#3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

NFL Regular Season - Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson

Sticking with the theme of signal-callers from the AFC, Lamar Jackson may be different than the others. But I believe he has a chance to do even more impressive stuff, considering there are fewer well-known commodities around him. While I believe Rashod Bateman is a major breakout candidate for 2022 and they drafted a couple of tight-ends to diversify their passing attack, the Baltimore Ravens clearly want their offense to pound people on the ground. Jackson can then give defenses nightmares with what he can do pulling the ball.

I thought early on last NFL season, he looked much more comfortable operating from the pocket in the drop-back game. Baltimore probably won’t win 14 games again, like in Jackson’s 2019 NFL MVP season. But if he puts up 40+ touchdowns, runs for nearly 1,000 more yards and they beat out the Cincinnati Bengals for the AFC North, the voters will have to show him respect.

If you enjoyed this breakdown, please make sure to check out the original piece, where I also predict all the other awards and the playoff picture, leading up to Super Bowl LVII.