Some limitations
There’s certainly a separation between the top five and this tier. They’re all clearly established starters and, in the right situation, can put up the numbers to receive some attention from Associated Press voters.
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However, there are limiting factors for each of them, whether that’s based on physical ability, mentality capacity or a combination of the two. All but one of them is leading a team that has won at least five games. So they have been able to convert individual into team success.
#6 Jalen Hurts
Hurts' ability to run to the RPO-heavy Philly offense effectively, the deep balls he has delivered to keep defenses from playing one-on-one on the perimeter, and his physicality as a runner are major factors as to why this group is still undefeated.
With that being said, we have to be honest with how much of his production comes off quasi lay-ups, hitting glance routes with a linebacker having to step up against the run look or somebody wide open in the flats as he pulls the ball. He’s also not being asked to execute a whole lot of multi-faceted reads.
Hurts is top-five in yards per attempt (8.5), passer rating (105.1) and total touchdowns responsible for (16). He’s a tremendous fit for this team, but he may not have the same level of success elsewhere.
#7 Dak Prescott
Dak didn't really set the NFL alight on his return versus the Lions, when the offense heavily relied on its two-headed backfield. However, he looked great this past Sunday versus Chicago, ripping isolation throws off pre-snap reads, working through progressions and having a couple of nice designed runs.
Over the last two weeks, Dak has been under center and used play-action (48.2% percent of dropbacks) at the second-highest rate in the league. It's impressive to see what he provides in terms of attacking down the field after turning his back to the defense, as well as his ability to throw on the run off bootlegs.
Yet, when they do spread things out, he’s also excellent at finding solutions against the blitz and attacking leverage against zone-defenders. The sample size is much smaller than anybody else’s outside of a few names at the very bottom, but if Dak can play at this level, the Cowboys could embark on a deep postseason run.
#8 Tua Tagovailoa
The Dolphins are a much better team with Tua on the field. His energy coming back for the Sunday game versus the Steelers was palpable, and he’s done a very good job running Mike McDaniel’s system.
He’s currently number one in the NFL in passer rating (112.7), QBR (78.7) and EPA per play (+0.371). His speed in getting the ball out to where his receivers can create yards after the catch, his anticipatory skills, his elusiveness inside the pocket and his toughness are all top-tier.
However, his arm strength does limit the areas of the field the Dolphins can consistently threaten and he’s not a special athlete or “play-creator”. Down the field, he hasn’t allowed those speedster receivers to maximize plays all the time and Tyreek Hill in particular has bailed him out on several occasions.
#9 Kyler Murray
There’s been a lot of criticism leveled at Kyler Murray and how inconsistent the Arizona offense has been. However, he hasn't received a ton of help schematically.
Kliff Kingsbury has finally shown some adaptability since the return of DeAndre Hopkins, but other than that, it’s been a whole lot of basic Air Raid concepts, where Murray has had to run around and make something happen.
With a reliable number one receiver to work the basic route tree and some opportunities to make great isolation throws down the field, he can really make things happen. He is also great at extending and creating secondary plays.
Murray is currently 20th in EPA per play (+0.023), but that’s in part due to having the 30th-ranked intended air yards per pass attempt (6.6). Moreover, he leads Arizona in rushing yards (299 on 5.9 yards per attempt).
#10 Geno Smith
One quarterback nobody expected to be in the top-10 is Geno Smith. He was in a quarterback competition with Drew Lock this summer and now he’s playing at a higher level than a bunch of guys typically associated with the pinnacle of the position.
At this moment, Geno is ranked number seven in EPA per play (+0.159) and easily leads the league in completion percentage (72.7%), despite being tied for 10th among starters with 8.1 intended yards per pass attempt.
So he delivers big plays through the air, while only having turned the ball over four times. Whether it’s taking deep shots off play-action from heavy sets or working some quick game elements when they do spread the field, he’s done it all for a Seahawks team that decided they were ready to trade away Russell Wilson.
Let’s not overlook what Geno has done when he’s needed to take off as a runner. He currently leads the league with 9.9 yards per scramble among quarterbacks with at least three of those attempts.
#11 Kirk Cousins
The final name in this group is one who consistently puts up good numbers, but seemingly nobody wants to talk about. That's understandable because Cousins isn’t doing a whole lot of special stuff.
Right now, he’s smack average with the 16th-best EPA per play (+0.053) and the Vikings are just outside the top-10 in DVOA offensively (5.9%), despite all the talent around the quarterback.
He doesn’t really give you anything out of structure and he seems to crumble at times under pressure. With that being said, if Kirk is protected and has a clear picture in front of him, he can read the field and deliver the ball accurately better than most guys around the league.
He’s number one in on-target percentage of throws (81.8%), according to Pro Football Reference, and if you take away a really bad showing in week two at Philly, he’s been responsible for 12 touchdowns compared to only three turnovers.
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