Would like to replace
Now that we’re below that aforementioned line, we've come to the teams that should look to replace their quarterback in the long term.
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Some of them are fine for the situation they’re in right now, outside of the one name at the top of these five. Taking him out of the equation, the four other guys can deliver enough to lead fairly effective offenses, just not in the long term.
#19 Russell Wilson
This really is an indictment of what Russ has done during his short time in Denver. No quarterback with a $250 million contract should ever even come close to flirting with that aforementioned Mendoza line, but right now, the Broncos QB is playing at a disastrous level.
His inability to see the entire field, find solutions to post-snap rotations defensively, get off the first read at times and not create any of that Russ magic we’ve seen in his career, has been the biggest reason for Denver’s offense scoring the second-fewest points per game (15.1).
One of the weirdest stats you’ll find out there is that Wilson is fourth in the league, with 28 completions of 20+ yards, yet among current starters, he’s dead-last in percentage of his pass attempts resulting in first downs (30.3%).
That really speaks to the fact he can deliver on those vertical shots on the outside, but not really anything between the hashes. To be fair, he has been pressured at the fifth-highest rate league-wide (27.2%) and the Broncos lost emerging star Javonte Williams four games in. But if the defense was even average, they’d probably be winless right now.
#20 Marcus Mariota
The fact that Mariota hasn’t attempted 30 or more passes since the Falcons' season-opener speaks to the way they want to win ball games. You can question the usage of back-to-back top-10 picks in their receiving corp, but Arthur Smith and the rest of that coaching staff deserves a lot of credit for the way they’ve gotten a roster in transition ready to perform.
Operating in the second-most run-heavy offense certainly doesn’t put as much pressure on the quarterback to consistently move his group down the field, but when the ball is put in Mariota’s hands, he’s provided some big plays through the air.
Counting only starters (since Jameis Winston would be number one with his all-or-nothing 2022 stat line), he leads the NFL with 10.0 intended air yards per pass attempt and his throws being 1.1 yards past the sticks on average.
Plus, when the offense is on schedule and gets to third-and-seven or less, Mariota has gone 16-of-26 (61.5%) as a passer, along with a few more as a scrambler. 21 of his 55 carries (38.2%) have resulted in first downs or touchdowns.
#21 Jared Goff
Jared Goff and Russell Wilson right now have the exact same EPA per play (+0.019). Something even more shocking? He’s currently tied with Josh Allen for the second-most completions of 20+ yards (29).
It’s been a really disappointing season for the Lions (1-6), especially since many had them in contention for a Wildcard berth. However, Goff and the offense hasn’t been the issue. Detroit’s defense has yet to hold an opposing team below 24 points and they’ve allowed 5.8 points more per game (32.1) than any other unit in the NFL.
So while you can argue Goff’s stats have benefitted from the fact that he’s needed to force the issue, constantly being in negative game-scripts in the second halves of games also puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback.
Yet, he’s on pace for his best mark in yards per attempt (7.6) and passer rating (93.2), while all but one of his six interceptions (compared to 12 TDs) came when they were trailing.
#22 Jacoby Brissett
This is similar to the Marcus Mariota conversation, as the Browns have run the ball on 49.4% of plays, despite trailing for the majority of games since their 2-1 start (now at 3-5).
Mariota is the only current starter who, on average, throws the ball further past the sticks than Brissett (0.4 yards). You can call him a game-manager, but when his team needs him to make some big plays through the air, he typically delivers.
Right now, he ranks 13th in percentage of passes resulting in 20+ yards (9.02%), along with being just inside the top-10 in QBR (60.7) and EPA per play (+0.131).
We’ve seen him deliver some beautiful moon-balls down the sidelines, along with shaking off rushers and avoiding catastrophic plays. Potentially the most impressive stat, however, is that 21 of his 31 carries so far have resulted in a fresh set of downs or a touchdown.
Just one QB sneak comes to mind in which he didn’t convert on third- or fourth-and-one. That’s been a cheat code for Cleveland in those situations.
#23 Andy Dalton
Let’s start with this, Dalton had one truly horrific game against the Cardinals, when he tossed three interceptions, with one of those in the opposing end-zone and the other two returned for touchdowns.
If you take that matchup out of the equation, he’s tossed five touchdowns compared to only one pick, which was off a great play by Seahawks’ phenomenal rookie corner Tariq Woolen on a curl route.
That protection of the ball is a welcome sight when compared to Jameis Winston throwing some games away. Taking everything into account, he’s still ninth in EPA per play (+0.141) and eighth in quarterback rating (95.1).
Dalton has definitely benefited from being pressured at a league-low 11.8% of dropbacks, but he’s done an excellent job of quickly working through progressions, along with a couple of kill-shots.
#24 Mac Jones
Mac Jones could easily have been part of the “young & learning” group, which is discussed later. However, right now it feels like he’s unlearning some of the things that made him such a pro-ready player as a rookie.
If he sees what a team's doing defensively before the snap, he has the ability to get the ball to the right target, and unlike popular belief, he’s actually been one of the more aggressive vertical passers in the league, with 10.9% of his pass attempts resulting in completions of at least 20 yards.
He’s also taken advantage of defenses leaving a lane in front of him, converting 15 carries into 74 yards over his past three games.
However, the lack of maturity he’s shown as a decision-maker has been the issue, throwing some balls late and without being able to properly step into them. Only the Steelers’ Kenny Pickett currently has a worse touchdown-to-interception ratio at three-to-seven, with at least one pick in every game.
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