Ranking all 32 NFL quarterbacks after Week 8

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Young, with growing pains

You can argue all but two of these next five names deserve to be within that bottom tier, but I still see things that make me believe they can be more than that in the NFL. This includes one rookie who has shown some signs of promise in an offense that doesn’t provide much help with the run game or from a play-calling perspective.

The other four guys are second-year players, who have shown flashes, but also a lack of maturity as decision-makers, inconsistent field vision and/or ball placement.

#25 Justin Fields

Washington Commanders v Chicago Bears

We’ve finally gotten to the quarterback or rather team that throws the ball on the lowest percentage of snaps. The Chicago Bears currently are at 60-to-40 in terms of percentage of run plays.

For some perspective, exactly half the league throws the ball on at least 60 percent of snaps. However, other than Lamar Jackson, Fields is the most integral component to his team’s rushing success right now.

Through eight weeks, he’s already surpassed his rushing total from a year ago (424 yards). Over the last couple of contests, Chicago’s coaching staff has really started to use him in the designed run game. This, combined with some of the crazy scrambles to convert on third-and-long, has him converting 43.4% of his carries into first downs or touchdowns.

He still has a long way to go as a passer, in terms of discipline, reading the full field and overall accuracy, as he’s currently dead-last among starting quarterbacks, with an on-target percentage of throws at 67.1%.

However, he’s also been pressured at the highest rate in the entire league (31.7%) and has arguably the weakest group of receivers at his disposal. Only 11.95% of his pass attempts have resulted in 20+ yard gains.

#26 Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence showed plenty of promise early in the season, but he simply hasn’t looked the same since Week Four. From that point on, he’s thrown four touchdowns compared to five interceptions, with just one game in which he completed at least 60% of his passes. The Jags have gone 0-5 over that stretch.

Lawrence can consistently rip those difficult intermediate level throws and has been one of the most effective scramblers in the NFL on a limited sample, averaging 7.9 yards on eight attempts.

Yet, he’s painfully conservative at times, when it comes to opportunities to attack vertically, which is indicated by ranking dead-last in the Next Gen Stats metric labeled “aggressiveness” (a correlation of yards per attempt dependent on down and distance).

He's also thrown a few untimely interceptions. We saw it this past Sunday (in London), when Jacksonville was gifted first-and-goal from the one-yard line following a penalty and Lawrence tossed an interception to Justin Simmons while trying to get the ball to one of his receivers working across the field with him.

This was after getting picked off by Texans rookie corner Derek Stingley Jr. in almost the exact same fashion three weeks earlier. This is a talented Jags team that doesn't even need their QB to play like a former No. 1 overall pick to win. As long as he doesn't cost them games, which he has done recently, they should be in a decent space.

#27 Zach Wilson

New England Patriots v New York Jets

Since we just spoke about 2021 first overall pick Trevor Lawrence, I think it’s only appropriate to follow up with the guy who the Jets selected right after.

I had Wilson pegged as one of my breakout candidates for 2022, looking at some of the positives he had already shown. This was in terms of having solutions against more static zone coverages, play-creation stuff, combined with the added receiving talent, which he could rely upon to defeat man-coverage.

However, it feels like he’s routinely become a tick late even when he knows where he wants to go. His pocket presence is horrific right now and he can’t help but try to force throws late instead of living to see another down.

Zach Wilson is currently tied with Baker Mayfield for the lowest completion percentage league-wide at 54.9%, and he’s 30th for the position in EPA per play (-0.076).

Seeing how upset he is about himself when he makes some of those bone-headed decision, I do still have some hope that he can turn things around. He clearly thrives under pressure, indicated by the second-best passer rating in the fourth quarter among quarterbacks (108.8).

#28 Davis Mills

Tennessee Titans v Houston Texans

You can probably make a case for Mills to rank anywhere from 28th to 32nd. Baker Mayfield saves face for Houston’s 2021 third-round pick a little bit, but discounting the currently injured Panthers quarterback, Mills is dead-last in EPA per play (-0.148) and QBR (31.6).

The reason he isn't even further down this list is the fact that he has fewer pieces around him offensively. He also hasn’t had that one catastrophic performance yet, like some other names below him.

This team was projected to “earn” one of the top two picks in next year’s draft and they are currently number 32 in total DVOA. There are certain limitations from an arm-talent perspective, but his ability to deliver the ball accurately versus off-coverage, get the pass off right at the top of his drop on timing-based patterns and the toughness to hang in there and deliver with a rusher right in his face makes him a formidable pocket passer.

Unfortunately, he doesn’t really provide anything outside of that, and he’s not been good on third downs, going 20-of-68 so far as a passer (29.4%).

#29 Kenny Pickett

Pittsburgh Steelers v Philadelphia Eagles

People who have watched Pickett play this season act like he’s playing better than he actually is, simply because they haven’t really seen another rookie QB play for extended stretches.

There have certainly been bright spots, looking at some of the well-placed shots down the sideline, the willingness to stand in the face of pressure, and ability to pick up 8-10 yards with his legs when needed.

Still, right now the only current starting quarterback with a worse EPA per play (-0.108) than Pickett is the aforementioned Davis Mills, and as a pure passer, his rating is right at the bottom (66.8).

The two-versus-eight touchdown-to-interception ratio for the Steelers rookie is a bit deceiving, considering two of those came in his first game, when he was inserted about mid-way through week four against the Jets.

A couple more came against the Dolphins, when he had to force the issue on third-and-long twice, while the team trailed by by six points late. Pickett has had to overcome some really questionable play-calling, but with the skill-position talent around him, he needs to do more.