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And finally, this last tier consists of three guys who to me clearly are starters based on the team they’re on, rather than franchises making the conscious decision to hand them the reins. I’d be very surprised if any of these guys are back under center when the 2023 season commences.
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#30 Taylor Heinicke
You could argue Heinicke has played better than Carson Wentz so far in limited action. Heinicke has won his two starts this year and delivered some big plays in both of them.
He’s really fun to watch, with how slippery he is at navigating the pocket, the conviction he shows driving the ball and the toughness he plays with.
Terry McLaurin making former All-Pro corners look like regulars these last couple of weeks has certainly helped, but when he’s in there, the coaching staff has certainly trusted Heinicke. They let him throw to run down the clock versus Aaron Rodgers' Green Bay Packers and then put together that game-winning drive at Indianapolis this past week.
Based off his play this season, he’d probably be higher than 30, but let’s not forget the organization, which hasn’t had anything close to a franchise QB since Robert Griffin III, had a chance to make him “the guy”, but brought in other veterans in each of the last two years.
#31. P.J. Walker
Another guy who probably deserves to be bumped up for what he’s shown over the last couple of weeks is former XFL star P.J. Walker. He has now gone a combined 35-of-58 for 494 yards and three touchdowns versus one interception against their division rivals, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons.
If D.J. Moore didn't foolishly pull his helmet off at the back-end of the absolute rocket his quarterback delivered to him, which traveled 67.6 yards through the air – a new record-long in the Next Gen Stats era – the kicker just made the longer PAT or then delivered from 33 yards away in overtime, Walker would have been 2-1 as a starter.
That looks a lot different than when he finished with -1 intended air yards when first pushed into action three weeks ago against the Rams. He’s clearly been better at delivering big plays than Baker Mayfield, while Carolina’s rushing attack has really taken off since he’s entered the lineup.
He is probably not the long-term solution, but he’s at least done enough to start the rest of the season and be brought back as a backup to whoever the Panthers probably draft in the top-five next April.
#32 Sam Ehlinger
We finish with the guy who has the smallest sample size to show for himself. It was a shocker to learn last week that Frank Reich announced Sam Ehlinger would be the starter going forward, even when Matt Ryan was healthy again.
The Colts have been in quarterback hell ever since the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck. Matty Ice had not been playing well on a consistent basis and dropping him for Ehlinger very much feels like an ownership decision.
However, Indy’s O-line and run game have been sub-par for any quarterback to step into. Now, as far as Ehlinger’s first career start goes, it’s not easy to evaluate. The Commanders only blitzed on five of his 28 dropbacks, yet he was pressured on exactly a quarter of those and as the game progressed, the quarterback’s eyes started looking down on the rush quicker and quicker.
His stat line ultimately didn’t look bad and if not for Terry McLaurin moss-ing Stephon Gilmore late, the Colts probably would've won at home. But their lone touchdown was set up by a Shaquille Leonard interception and outside of their three field goal drives, the only other time Indy ran more than four plays, Ehlinger had a bad strip-sack.
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