Pre-2022 NFL season power rankings

Fringe NFL playoff teams

NFL regular season - Pittsburgh Steelers v Minnesota Vikings

In this third group, we have three teams that just missed out on the playoffs last season and also two 12-5 squads. I anticipate these two teams to regress due to the offseason they’ve had. All six of these NFL teams present more than one concern, which I believe limits how far they can go once the playoffs arrive. But they should be in the running for one of those seven spots for either conference, with three from either side.

#14. Minnesota Vikings, NFC North

NFL regular season - Green Bay Packers v Minnesota Vikings

How does a team that finished top-ten in offensive yards per play (5.7), second in sacks on defense (51) and fifth in turnover differential (+11) not make the playoffs? Answer – it’s the Minnesota Vikings.

This has been one of the biggest underperformers in the NFL, looking at the talent they’ve had on the roster for an extended stretch. While a lot of the key pieces are still in play, we’ve seen them part ways with a few long-term stalwarts on defense and make a regime shift from Mike Zimmer to Kevin O’Connell.

I expect Justin Jefferson to have a monster season, as he’ll be put on the move more regularly. The run game should have more space, working out of more 11 personnel. Defensively, Ed Donatell should implement more odd fronts and split-safety, which looks built for the modern game. This, along with adding Za’Darius Smith as a chess piece on longer downs and an influx of young draftees in the secondary, with their top two picks Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth likely starting eventually.

#15. New Orleans Saints, NFC South

NFL Regular Season - New Orleans Saints v Seattle Seahawks

Mid-way through the NFL’s 32 teams, we’ve reached a group here that I don’t believe many people foresaw having the offseason they did. Mickey Loomis rolled back the money for so many years to keep the crew together for the Drew Brees-Sean Payton run. Now, with both of them retired, at least a slight rebuild should have been put in order. The New Orleans Saints did move on from a couple of big names, but brought in at least as many from outside the building and traded major draft capital to acquire two instant difference-makers in the first round at positions of need.

While we can debate whether that was the smart way to approach things, in terms of the team they’ll be rolling out there in 2022, we can’t overlook them. Other than swapping their safety tandem with an arguably better one, they basically bring back the same defense that finished around the top-five in basically all meaningful statistical categories. With Michael Thomas back in the fold and Alvin Kamara’s suspension pushed back, Jameis Winston is set to build on his 5-2 record as a starter from ‘21.

#16. Miami Dolphins, AFC East

NFL Regular Season - New York Jets v Miami Dolphins

Another team likely in the playoff hunt is the Miami Dolphins. They flipped the switch last season, going from a 1-7 start to finishing the year on an 8-2 run. During this their defense nearly cut their points surrendered by half,. This is highly encouraging. They brought in Mike McDaniel (who has been a mainstay on Kyle Shanahan’s staff), to diversify a run-scheme that finished bottom-three in total rushing yards and yards per attempt. They made a splash trade for one of the NFL’s most dangerous weapons in Tyreek Hill, which looks great on the surface.

However, McDaniel is still a rookie head coach and Tua Tagovailoa is yet to prove he can threaten NFL defenses beyond the sticks. Outside of left tackle Terron Armstead, the O-line is still a major question mark, and some regression might in store defensively. Especially with teams having another year of finding solutions for their pressure looks.

#17. Dallas Cowboys, NFC East

NFL Regular Season - Jacksonville Jaguars v Dallas Cowboys

I know this seems really low for a 12-win team from a year ago and that the overly optimistic Dallas Cowboys fans won’t like this at all. It’s not that I don’t believe that they have the individual stars to beat just about anybody. Dak Prescott is another year away from that foot injury, Ceedee Lamb is poised to challenge for the receiver crown, Micah Parsons is coming off a stupidly good rookie campaign and a duo of excellent play-callers on either side of the ball. But where is this team from a year ago?

They traded away Amari Cooper, couldn’t retain either La’el Collins or Randy Gregory in key positions and saw some underrated role players walk out the door. That’s on top of some of the head-scratching game management we saw from them last season and being the most penalized team in the league (66.2 yards per game). Both of these were on full display in their home Wild Card round loss to the 49ers. Now you add in Tyron Smith potentially being lost for the entire season, that’s really rough.

#18. Tennessee Titans, AFC South

NFL Regular Season - Arizona Cardinals v Tennessee Titans

This obviously seems a bit extreme for last year’s number one seed in the AFC, especially considering the Tennessee Titans beat all three of the four teams in the “Super Bowl contenders” tier. They will have a healthy Derrick Henry back to tear into opposing defenses, whilst bringing back all but one of the defensive starters themselves.

With that being said, trading away one of your young stars in A.J. Brown and drafting Malik Willis doesn’t really change who will be under center for them this year. It does somewhat signal a shift in terms of believing this iteration of the team can’t go all the way. Not having Brown, who consistently bailed out the offense on third downs, combined with a paper-thin roster (where I basically trust no one beyond the first string), has me thinking they’ll be fighting for one of the final Wild Card berths.