Pre-2022 NFL season power rankings

Challenging for .500 NFL teams

Pittsburgh Steelers v Cleveland Browns

Looking at the range of teams from 2021 that landed in this tier, we have a couple of ten-win teams, but also one that finished the year with a 3-13-1 record (which I have a lot more faith in). Ultimately, they will all be fairly average or slightly below that, considering all circumstances, the coaching staff and rosters.

#19. New England Patriots, AFC East

NFL Regular Season - New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders

It almost seems like a blasphemy to have a Bill Belichick-coached team below a tier named “Playoff contenders”. But this has been one of the most head-scratching offseasons we’ve seen from the New England Patriots over the last two (plus) decades. After strangely spending a shocking amount of money on mostly mid-level free agents a year ago, they’ve parted ways with several long-term stalwarts on defense. Without mentioning any specific names, the Patriots put together one of the least inspiring draft classes, based on consensus boards (which I mostly agreed with).

For a team that scored on the second-highest percentages of drives (48%) under Josh McDaniels, they’re now relying on the offensive “wizardry” of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to transition this to a wide-zone based rushing attack – which has been a disaster, according to all training camp reports – while rolling out three new starting corners.

#20. Arizona Cardinals, NFC West

NFL Regular Season - Arizona Cardinals v Cleveland Browns

Looking back at the Arizona Cardinals winning their first seven games of 2021, this seems pretty crazy. Especially as that alone would put them at nearly that .500 mark already. But they’re not going to start off that hot again due to multiple factors. Arizona’s offense has not been nearly the same without DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup, as Kyler Murray’s go-to guy on the backside of the formation – he’s be suspended for the first six games.

Defensively, without Chandler Jones, they lack any legitimate threat rushing off the edge. They are counting on last year’s first-rounder Zaven Collins to take a monster step after barely seeing the field over Jordan Hicks as a rookie, and outside of Byron Murphy, their corner room is the worst in the entire NFL. That, along with notoriously having finished with 2-7, 3-6 and 3-6 in three years under Kliff Kingsbury, is why I expect major regression.

#21. Cleveland Browns, AFC North

NFL Regular Season - Miami Dolphins v Cleveland Browns

Before the news about Deshaun Watson’s suspension was increased from six to eleven games, I had the Cleveland Browns a couple of spots higher and a tier higher. But this appears to be somewhat of a lost season, with all the distractions off the field for Cleveland. Having the cap space to trade a fifth-round pick for Amari Cooper should be a great move and I think their defense has a chance to be really good, with the investments they’ve made into the back-seven in recent years.

However, with second-year center Nick Harris recently placed on IR as the designated J.C. Tretter replacement, that position has become a major question mark. I still don’t see a true nose-tackle in the middle on the other side of the ball to win those early downs. Now Jacoby Brissett is playing quarterback until week 13, who at best should be a wash with an injured Baker Mayfield, I just can’t put them any higher.

#22. Detroit Lions, NFC North

NFL Regular Season - Green Bay Packers v Detroit Lions

At the point where this ranking is coming out, I’m guessing a lot of people have somewhat jumped on the Detroit Lions bandwagon. Many will at least have become fans of how they run things there, having watched them on Hard Knocks. I've been a fan of the way they’ve put together the power structure and approached this rebuild for a while now.

Having Frank Ragnow back, I really believe they could be a top-five offensive line in the NFL, and they added speed on the perimeter to keep defenses from deploying extra resources against the run. Defensively, they now have one of the deeper units up front as well and 2020 third overall pick Jeff Okudah has looked like a true shutdown corner. Considering the upgrades they’ve made, that 1-6-1 record in one-score games should at least regress to the mean.

#23. Pittsburgh Steelers, AFC North

NFL Regular Season - Denver Broncos v Pittsburgh Steelers

This was a tough team for me to slot in, because on one hand, the Pittsburgh Steelers' quarterback play is a major unknown and I feel pretty secure about saying they’ll once again have one of the worst O-lines in football. However, it’s tough to imagine the passing attack being as limited as it was over the last couple of years, looking at the intended air yards per attempt with Ben Roethlisberger under center (28th and 31st respectively).

Yet, as long as that protection can’t hold up, we don’t know how much deeper they can design their dropback passing game. I really like their young group of skill-position players and now with Myles Jack looking like a significant upgrade at MIKE linebacker, they have individual star plays on defense. But once again, the depth at corner is non-existent and they were shockingly bad at stopping the run, finishing dead-last in yards per attempt (5.0) and explosive runs (24).

#24. Washington Commanders, NFC East

NFL Regular Season - New York Jets v Washington Redskins

Another squad that should see an upgrade at the quarterback spot, but still isn’t inspiring a whole lot of confidence with their new solution, is the one that also has a new name as a franchise. The Washington Commanders are another group I struggled with trying to find the right place for, because what they said this offseason was: “we have much pretty everything in place, and now we add in Carson Wentz.”

They’re largely the same team, finding very similar players to what they already had on the roster. First-rounder Jahan Dotson is the only different element they’ve really brought in. Considering they never made it above the .500 mark, finishing 23rd in points scored and 25th in points allowed, that may not be a recipe for success. I do like the fit of Wentz, at least giving them average QB play in Scott Turner’s offense and with the talent coming back on the defensive front, regression is in store, but it’s tough for me to get overly excited.