NFL fantasy diamonds for 2022 - Running backs

Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier

We’re getting to some really deep sleepers here, talking about another rookie, this time from the fifth round of the NFL draft. I don’t quite see it shaking out as a largely undrafted fantasy option in terms of opportunities to produce.

Atlanta Falcons running back Mike Davis was a disappointment in the NFL and fantasy football last season. He only had a good 600 yards and four touchdowns from scrimmage despite being healthy for all 17 games. However, he was going in the 6th or 7th round of fantasy drafts, while Tyler Allgeier is barely being drafted in fantasy leagues.

Looking at how Atlanta used that position, other than Davis' 138 carries, the rest of the true running backs on that roster combined for just 89 attempts. Cordarelle Patterson finally had a breakthrough season as an offensive player, a swiss-army knife who could motion in and out of the backfield and create big plays. Patterson pretty much split his production as a rusher and receiver equally, with close to 1,200 total yards and 11 TDs.

The Falcons did bring him back on a two-year, 10.5-million dollar contract. So it could be a sign of things to come and maybe Arthur Smith is the one to unlock this guy. But his 153 carries from 2021 aren't anything you would call a workhorse, and even if he comes close to that number, there's plenty of opportunities now available with Davis out of the mix. The Falcons should be more run-centric without Matt Ryan under center.

It's the second year of Arthur Smith installing this inside/outside zone-based rushing attack. Whether they have Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder in the lineup, they create similar challenges for opponents in terms of what they can do, keeping the ball on zone-read concepts or bootlegs, slowing down backside pursuits and opening up cutback lanes.

So there's a lot to like in terms of where this ground game is headed altogether. There's a pretty clear path for this fifth-round rookie to establish himself as a prominent early-down rusher in the NFL. The only actual contenders for touches are Damien Williams and along with Quadree Ollison. Williams was a Super Bowl hero for Kansas City, but that was a good two-and-a-half years ago. This past NFL season, he only touched the ball 56 times in 12 games for Chicago as their RB3. Whereas Ollison has struggled to stay healthy and has only touched the ball 49 times in his three years as a pro.

Allgeier, over his last two seasons at BYU racked up over 3,100 yards and 36 TDs on 6.4yards per carry. I really like how he fits into this 1-cut type of system. He has good acceleration as he plants that outside foot, the way he runs with his pads out in front and pulls his knees up high through contact, to give that Falcons offense some attitude. Last season, with the Cougars, well over 70% of his rushing yards came after contact.

Patterson will remain a featured weapon because of the way they embraced his skill-set in the 2021 NFL season. But Allgeier could easily lead them in carries and while not as many of them will be explosive, the 4.6 he ran at the combine does not reflect what we saw from him with several breakaway runs.

Unless I've loaded up on running backs, this guy will be a target in the final rounds of all my leagues.

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