Second- and third-year NFL players ready to break out in 2021: Defense edition

Javon Kinlaw

Interior defensive line – Javon Kinlaw

The San Francisco fanbase and analysts seemed to be pretty split on what John Lynch and company did this past offseason, as they used the 14th overall selection on South Carolina’s Javon Kinlaw as a direct replacement for DeForest Buckner, whom the Colts acquired in exchange for that pick.

Well, the Niners originally received the pick one prior, but swapped with the Buccaneers, who selected their Pro Bowl right tackle Tristan Wirfs in that spot. I personally had Kinlaw and Derrick Brown (Auburn) in the top ten of my big board, although the two were very different prospects to me, as Brown was more of a typical shade-nose tackle, who can be a dominant space-eating run defender and really overpower guys, while Kinlaw certainly packs a punch as well, but offered a more impressive athletic profile, as someone who can shoot up a gap and create chaos.

I’d certainly say Brown had a better rookie season and that whoever thought Kinlaw would be able to directly replace what DeFo did for them didn’t have the right level of expectations going in, but their new number 99 certainly had his flashes.

I remember the first day of last year’s Senior Bowl, when Kinlaw’s official numbers came out and I almost couldn’t believe what I had heard. For somebody who I evaluated – and still look at primarily – as a three-technique, his weight is just crazy, measuring in at 6’5”, 320 pounds.

There was definitely a certain rawness to his game, overwhelming opposing blockers with his physical supremacy on most occasions, but the athletic profile was second to none for any defensive tackle we had seen come out in several years. While Buckner-like numbers or impact were an absurd target for a first-year player, I would think most people weren’t very happy with what Kinlaw did ultimately put out, as he missed two games and played 53 percent of the defensive snaps overall.

He combined for 33 total tackles, only 1.5 sacks and three tackles for loss, but he did bat down four passes and made that huge play in the second Rams game at L.A., where he pick-sixed what should have been a screen pass to the running back. He did have ten additional ten pressures. Still, that is far from where the type of player he can become.

Evaluating his tape at South Carolina and projecting him forward to the pros, Kinlaw has always been at his best as an upfield disruptor. When he comes off the ball with urgency and knives through one half of a blocker, there’s not much they can do, because there was a little delay in his get-off, often times the rookie wasn’t able to attack the edges of offensive linemen and there is barely any deconstructing of blocks, but this guy has some of the most powerful hands you will ever see and a lot of times, he would just punch guys in the chest and wrap up the approaching ball-carrier anyway.

To go along with that, he has some ridiculous lateral agility to flow with zone run plays and even step around blockers who try to cut his legs. From the backside, he has equally impressive change of direction and flexibility to flatten down the line and chase down the running back, while doing so with the effort necessary.

We saw Kinlaw work over the top of down-blocks at times, when following a puller, which he can create chaos with, if learns to be more consistent with it, and if he can just get a little more effective with his hand-usage, he’ll get involved on a lot more plays. The Niners trusted him to line up in the A-gaps quite a bit as well, where we saw flashes of him getting around centers with the high swim to force the running back to re-direct almost instantly.

As a pass-rusher, Kinlaw may not offer the largest array of moves at this point, but he is fun to face for anybody. He can really take offensive linemen for a ride with his bull-rush and you see him toss guys to the side a few times like rag-dolls, once he gets them trying to recover somehow.

Javon Kinlaw!!!! pic.twitter.com/PANY95f27G

— Billy M (@BillyM_91) November 29, 2020

What I always thought was crazy about him in that regard was his ability to twist his upper body and corner to the quarterback, despite seemingly being completely off balance. He is still definitely reckless in his approach, but he can create push up the pocket and forces guys to really sit in that chair, to absorb his power.

San Francisco put him in a lot of wide-three or almost four-alignments, where he comes in on an angle and can build up momentum before crashing into the guard, but then he can also side-step that guy or slant into the A-gap in general to draw the center with with him as well.

I’ve seen him shove the center back by a couple of yards with one punch and then loop all the way to the outside. The timing and coordination could still see some work, but he could become a problem when involved in different games up front. Plus, when his rush stalls or he sees the quarterback load up, Kinlaw is great at putting those 35-inch arms up and making it tough to throw over him.

Like I already said, it starts with improving snap anticipation for Kinlaw. He needs to do a better job of establishing that half-man relationship and playing with better extension in the run game. To go with that, it will be important for him to reduce that near shoulder, as he tries to cross the blocker’s face, and at this point he raises his pads too much versus double-teams.

His pass-rush repertoire will have to diversify as he goes along, but having Nick Bosa come back and work with him on that hand-usage, as well as that just giving the second-year man more one-on-one opportunities, will be huge. With the alignment versatility Arik Armstead presents, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Kinlaw rushing off the edge more as well.

Compared to some of the other guys on this list, who already put out some high-level NFL tape, this is much more of a projection, because the rookie did not play at a very high level I would say in year one – at least not in terms of what you would hope for from a mid-first-round pick.

But this situation reminds me so much of DeForest Buckner as a young player, where he flashed all kinds of potential, but had room to grow technically. I’m not 100 percent sure Kinlaw will get there in year two already, but I’d rather be too early than late with such a talent.