Second- and third-year NFL players ready to break out in 2021: Defense edition

Safety - Juan Thornhill

Safety – Juan Thornhill

I was a big fan of the 2019 safety class, which had eight guys inside my top 80 overall. Thornhill was the seventh-ranked player in his position for me that year and he went about in that range when the Chiefs selected him with the 63rd overall pick.

What I really liked about his tape at Virginia was that he had plenty of man-coverage experience as a converted corner, but also the explosiveness and range to play as a full-time free safety. The instincts were still a bit of a work in progress, since he was learning the position at that point, but he started making plays in the NFL as soon as he came to Kansas City.

At the back end of an All-Rookie Team-level debut campaign, he unfortunately tore his ACL in the final game of the regular season and missed the Chiefs’ Super Bowl run. He came back last season and his game dropped off to some degree, especially in terms of the numbers he was (or wasn’t) able to produce.

Comparing Thornhill’s first two years in the league, he officially started only half of the Chiefs’ games this past season, after being in the lineup for all 16 as a rookie. He came just four snaps short off the 1,000-mark his rookie year (89%), but his snap percentage went down to 71% in 2020, as he was banged up and/or simply didn’t play up to par, leading to much more playing time for Daniel Sorensen, despite how much Steve Spagnuolo likes those three-safety looks.

Thornhill’s interceptions and PBUs also went down from eight total (three INTs) to just four (with one pick). While his touchdowns stayed at two, his completion percentage (+18.1%), yards per target (+5.0) and passer rating (+59.8) allowed all went up massively.

Now, we’re not talking about a corner who’s in man-coverage all game, so those numbers can certainly lie, because he may be charged for a completed pass, because he was the closest defender nearby, but there’s no denying that his level of play took a bump in his sophomore showing. He already admitted that his knee was on his mind during his encore season and he just didn’t click on stuff as quickly as we saw from him as a rookie, but I believe he will be at his best in year three.

First and foremost, Steve Spagnuolo is a very creative play-caller, who uses pieces like Tyrann Mathieu in a multitude of ways, to go with the “Honeybadger” himself being a bit of a freelancer, while Thornhill is more of your prototypical deep safety, who allows his teammate to roam around the field.

Against the run, he works downhill with a nice bounce overall, showing pretty good conviction to run the alley from split-safety looks, while not hesitating to bang into tight ends, but he makes sure to not overrun plays when he’s in deep middle alignment.

.@Juan_Thornhill intercepts Hoyer and returns it to the 23-yard line! #ChiefsKingdom📺: #NEvsKC on CBS📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/9fyGwoYxWA pic.twitter.com/LUtwXt54kK

— NFL (@NFL) October 5, 2020

The one thing he actually improved upon in year two was his efficiency at taking ball-carriers to the turf. He cut his missed tackles in half, down to seven apiece, which, at 14.6 percent is still not a great rate, but in the Eddie Jackson-Justin Reid area in terms of other safeties. He does offer the versatility to match guys in the slot one-on-one, where he’s not afraid of squatting on routes and makes sure to close the distance when the ball goes inside and he’s leveraged to defend the edges.

That being said, he is at his best in deep coverage, especially when on single-high duty. Thornhill presents excellent range and doesn’t float too deep, while keeping his head on a swivel, to where he can take advantage of slightly overthrown balls down the seams.

You see him open up with a crossing route from number three in trips on one hash and then redirect to the post route on the opposite numbers at times. He has an impressive ability to move backwards at different angles, while keeping his shoulder square to the line of scrimmage, to where he can take away multiple routes on one play and force the quarterback to hold onto the ball.

He also has tremendous hip mobility, when he does have to open up and get into trail position, being able to stay over the top of a scissors concept and then stay in phase going either direction, as he commits, depending on the quarterback’s body language. Plus, when it’s up in the air, the now third-year safety displays great ball-skills, which have always been a strength of his, as you go through any of his highlight reels or whatever it may be.

The two things that still give Thornhill trouble at his current position is the fact that his eyes can get lost in traffic at times, when it’s all between the tackles and he can’t see it develop clearly, and he gets too tall in his back-pedal on occasion, where he can’t explode through his lower body at all and loses time coming forward.

The biggest difference between years one and two for him, though, was a mental issue.

Some of the growth I thought I had seen from him, in terms of being more instinctual, had regressed, as he seemed a little hesitant to pull the trigger. That also reflected in his PFF grade of just 52.8, which falls into the “replacement” tier.

However, that AFC Championship game against the Bills reminded us what kind of player he can be, allowing just one catch for six yards and breaking up four passes, with a near-interception stopping the opening drive for Buffalo.

I really think another year away from that ACL injury will take his game to another level and we’ll see him put up the numbers to potentially back up a Pro Bowl-worthy season.